This was the season it was finally supposed to change. The Colts had found a leader in Daniel Jones, a true starting quarterback. The offense was clicking, Jonathan Taylor was an MVP-candidate, the defense was doing much better, and the Colts were not only winning games, but destroying opponents, climbing to an AFC leading 7-1 record. What made things even better is that the Houston Texans had a terrible start, and the Jaguars were maddeningly inconsistent. The cracks started to show in a Week 9
loss in Pittsburgh, where a struggling rival managed to completely shut down the Colts’ offense, but the doubts were cast aside because the Colts always struggle in Pittsburgh, and because right the next week the Colts managed to beat the Falcons in London to go into their bye-week 8-2.
How good everything was back then. The Colts then traded two 1st round picks for All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner, going all-in on this core. Missing the playoffs was completely out of the question at that point, but fast forward two months and here we are, 8-8, eliminated from playoff contention, and in the midst of a six-game losing streak. The starting quarterback tore his Achilles, the All-Pro defensive tackle is dealing with potential career-ending nerve injuries, and the team still has to travel to Houston to face a red-hot Texans’ team next Sunday.
8-9 is the most likely outcome this season, uncertainty at the quarterback position, and no 1st round pick. The franchise is in terrible conditions, and changes need to be made as soon as possible. Starting from the top, Chris Ballard absolutely has to go. I cannot remember a general manager that got so many opportunities despite failing to get his team to the playoffs. I could not care less about him being good at drafting interior offensive linemen late in the draft, when the team had a different Week 1 starting quarterback every single year since Andrew Luck retired, and is laughably bad at selecting edge rushers.
Let’s take a look at every single edge rusher drafted by Chris Ballard in the first three rounds, just for fun:
- 2017: Tarrell Basham, 3rd round
- 2018: Kemoko Turay, 2nd round / Tyquan Lewis, 2nd round
- 2019: Ben Banogu, 2nd round
- 2020: None
- 2021: Kwity Paye, 1st round / Dayo Odeyingbo 2nd round
- 2022: None
- 2023: None
- 2024: Laiatu Latu, 1st round
- 2025: J.T. Tuimoloau, 2nd round
Of that list, Latu and Tuimoloau will probably be the only two remaining on the roster, and it is worth noting that JTT has been a healthy scratch several games this year, and has yet to play >50% of the snaps in a match. Couple that with letting a talented edge-rusher in Denico Autry go to the Titans and you have a terrible management of the most important position on defense.
There is not much need to go into detail of Ballard’s team management other than to go over his record: two playoff appearances, zero divisional titles, eight seasons. This was supposed to be the playoff or bust season for Ballard, and it was definitely a bust.
Shane Steichen’s case is a bit harder to judge. He was brought in at the same time as Anthony Richardson. Hailed as a quarterback whisperer and an offensive mastermind. So far he has shown neither of those attributes, and it seems obvious that criticism of his leadership will arise once he is no longer with the team. He will make a good offensive coordinator on another team, but it seems like having to handle play-calling and team leadership was too much on his plate. He is a smart football guy, and the offense worked at times. For the first eight weeks it was a thing of beauty. But one cannot ignore that the Colts were playing the easy part of their schedule, and that opposing defenses had no Daniel Jones’ Colts tape to study. The Steelers seemed to lay out the blueprint to contain the offense, and other teams followed it to great success.
Now I understand that there is no certainty when getting a new head-coach, but looking at what the Bears, Patriots, and Jaguars managed to do with first year HC is encouraging. The problem is that those teams all had a talented young signal-caller, which the Colts do not, that seems to be yet another big problem to solve to be competitive once again.
That takes us to the final part of the problem: the players. Starting with the quarterback position, there is zero certainty about what it will look like next season. It seems too surreal to be true, but Anthony Richardson, who had the perfect opportunity to come in and replace Daniel Jones, was not able to play because he suffered a *expletive* orbital eye fracture warming up with rubber bands! Oh and the team’s major free-agent signing suffered one of his three concussions this year during those warmups too!
Now looking at the defensive captains, I will be as respectful as possible, but Zaire Franklin talked a ton last season, and has talked a lot this season too. My man, the Colts have not made the playoffs in five years! Why are you talking so much? Also, you are not a good football player. The proof is in the pudding. I could cite PFF.com and the fact that he has the lowest coverage grade for linebackers this year, but just the eye test is enough. DeForest Buckner is an amazing football player and leader, but he is dealing with a very complicated injury that could have long term ramifications. His health always comes first and hopefully he can heal up if he decides to suit up again. JT is an All-Pro caliber running back, who made one of the worst mistakes in Colts’ history dropping the ball in a must win game before reaching the endzone last season. Michael Pittman Jr. is paid like a #1 receiver, yet his numbers are more similar to a good #2 option.
So, Ms. Carlie Irsay-Gordon, you seem to have two options on your hands. The first one is to re-sign Jones and run it back with the same core once again. I understand the appeal here. This team has enough talent to guarantee winning 7-8 games at the least, and who knows, perhaps with another offseason, further development from the young guys, and a solid draft class, this team finally gets over the hump and makes the playoffs once again. Now will the fanbase tolerate CIG consolidating Ballard and Steichen on their positions after yet another season missing the playoffs? Highly doubtful. Now the other downside is that Indianapolis is not particularly an enticing position for a potential HC or GM candidate. You have no young quarterback to develop, no first round picks the next two years, and an aging core. There are plenty of better opportunities for aspiring candidates.
The other option is to embrace a hard rebuild. That involves trading talented players at a potential discount, and accepting the fact that we will most likely suck the next two years, which is made worse by the fact that we will not have our own pick in the 2028 Draft, but that is a pill that the Colts will have to swallow if they are to become competitive once again. Compounding errors is never the right choice, moving on, while hurtful, will be the right decision to make in the long term.
We will see what direction the team chooses to follow, but I do not envy CIG right now.
