Jurickson Profar had a career season last year. He received a 3 year/ $42 million contract as a result. His career line through 2023, which was .238 AVG/ .322 OBP/ .383 SLG with a 92 wRC+ and bad corner outfield defense was pretty uninspiring. Alex Anthopoulos was adamant he had in figured out and the changes were here to stay. well, he didn’t have the whole following-the-rules thing figured out, but Profar has blossomed after 2023 with a .274/.375/.463 line with 137 wRC+ overall.
It was fair to ask
which version of Jurickson Profar that the Braves were getting though. I looked at this question in June and spotted some changes from the pre-2023 period and after. They were basically:
- Swings outside the strike zone were down and inside the zone were up, and also swung less at inside balls and more at away strikes.
- He made great strides on borderline pitches.
- Made an batting stance adjustment to generate more power
He’s definitely getting great results. His line of .258/.362/.472 with 133 wRC+ (means he’s 33% better than the average hitter on creating runs) is pretty close to his full season 2024 numbers. It’s worth a look to see if he continuing his 2024 approach and the results he’s getting from it.
Swings outside and inside the zone and swings inside and away
These ink blot diagrams show where Jurickson is attacking the ball from the left side. He’s removed a lot of swings at away balls. Inside balls are about the same, with a preference on both side for those middle-heighted balls. High balls are decreasing as well. It looks like he has narrowed his focus to the meatballs, which is pretty outstanding.
From the right-hand side, it’s a little messy. He’s largely looking at high strikes here. Some of this is small sample size, as it’s 75 plate appearances here. Some of this is an aggressive approach from a guy who is feeling it in August. His August line is .295/.428/.598 with a 183 wRC+. That might make him chase maybe a hair more. I’m leaning toward the idea that this is a noisy sample, as I notice more of his left versus right tendencies lower.
Great strides on borderline pitches
He’s actually improved on borderline pitches from last season. He’s +6 runs on the shadow locations from 271 plate appearances this season. That’s improved from -5 runs in 668 PAs last season. The waste pitch locations show an uptick though. And that mostly from the left side, he’s swinging and missing way outside the zone. Waste swings almost disappear from the right side.
Batting stance adjustment to generate more power
I had noticed in June this batting approach:
Here you can see Jurickson start with an open stance. He will bring his foot in front and point it slightly to the shortstop side of second base as the pitch is made. This is helping him clear his hips and generate more power. Everything looks much cleaner here and more aligned. This ain’t juice, this is excellent technique.
This is Jurickson hitting a double in 2024.
This is Jurickson hitting a double in 2025.
I’m not a batting swing technique expert, but this looks pretty identical. It’s a super quiet swing that hasn’t changed much since last season’s breakthrough. To me, he looks pretty close last year in a lot of ways. Let’s dig into the expected weighted on-base average numbers and other peripherals, though.
xwOBA Outperformance and a hot month
In 2025, before August 1st Profar had a .296 wOBA from a .278 xwOBA. He was generating a 89 wRC+ with lower walk numbers (8.6%) and higher strikeout rate (17.2%). However, he’s turned it on since then with a .420 wOBA and a .401 xwOBA. League average is .325 xwOBA for a benchmark. I didn’t see anything crazy in terms his approach or swing patterns that would make August that much better. It’s likely due to a guy missing 80 games finally catching up with the rest of baseball.
He is outrunning his expected weighted on-base average numbers this season, and that’s kinda new. He has a .363 wOBA overall versus his .345 xwOBA. There’s a few ways to do that. One way is luck. The other is putting fly balls over the fence, which can be considered luck or at times related to whatever physical baseballs that Rob Manfred decides to disperse. A way to dial up home runs is to sneak them inside the foul pole.
Here is Jurickson’s hit spray chart for 2025. Look the seven home runs just by the right field foul pole. Now, is this luck or skill? There’s some skill to this, because hitting home runs right of the right field gap is where his home runs live. And he’s not the only lefty that does that either. This is something that Johan Camargo in particular would exploit. He mostly rode near-foul-pole home runs and xwOBA outperformance to good seasons in 2017 and 2018. It’s not Truist Park fueling these shorter home runs because 3 of those 7 were on the road either.
Jurickson Profar was a bit of mystery box coming into 2025. The Braves front office seemed convinced that his changes were authentic. They look correct so far. However, the xwOBA outperformance/ foul pole home run issue is something to watch and perhaps duplicate with other hitters if possible. Goodness knows the 2025 Braves could use a little luck.
