The AL West is an intriguing division to unpack. Last year was a bit of a turnaround, as the Astros failed to win it in a full season for the first time since 2016, and actually missed the playoffs for the first time since that season. The Mariners project to be the crema of the crop this year, and in fact, have one the better projections in the AL overall.
There’s a fair bit of uncertainty here beyond the Mariners looking like the best team in the division, and every team addressed the offseason
in a different way.
Seattle Mariners
On paper, it feels like Seattle has a great chance to win the division in back-to-back years, something the franchise has never managed in their history. (Their only consecutive playoff appearances came in 2000-2001, thanks to the 116-win campaign in the latter year. The Mariners have this bizarre thing where, in their history, they’ve had ten different seasons with 85+ wins and no playoff berth; they’ve only had five seasons with 85+ wins and a playoff berth.)
The rotation was fine last year and looks pretty good heading into 2026. Josh Naylor is back on a big-money $92.5 million, five-year deal. The eventual Brendan Donovan transaction saw him make his way to Seattle, and Jose Ferrer cost a big-time prospect but will now pair with Gabe Speier as another lefty option in their bullpen.
Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez (a midseason (re-)acquisition last year) have moved on. Whether Cal Raleigh can pull off an encore season remains a question, but he’s projected to be the top catcher in the game in 2026. Julio Rodriguez has generally been a monster despite complaints about consistency, and gives the Mariners the best center field projection in MLB as well. One spot to watch will be shortstop, as J.P. Crawford is playing through a shoulder woe in Spring Training and had an unfortunate defensive season last year. He’s now in his 30s, and while the Mariners have Colt Emerson bumping around, the situation is somewhat fluid.
Overall, this is a dangerous team projected for 88 wins as a central estimate.
Houston Astros
The Astros and Braves both missed the playoffs in the first time in seemingly forever last year, and both have tried to reload. The Astros rejiggered their rotation, signing Tatsuya Imai from overseas and dealing for Mike Burrows. Overall, their roster doesn’t wow you, and the hope is that the Jeremy Pena-Carlos Correa-Yordan Alvarez triumvirate hits enough to make up for an unsettled situation in right field, while the bullpen carries some water for a rotation that will need someone (probably Imai) to step up behind Hunter Brown.
The FanGraphs Steamer-ZiPS blend is not a fan of their up-and-down roster, seeing the Astros as something like 80-82 as a central estimate. ZiPS alone is much more positive, with an 87-win central estimate that’s just one game behind the Mariners. The Astros are, overall, reminiscent of the Braves — not just because both teams need a bounceback into contention after what is hopefully a one-year blip, but also because there are depth issues that threaten to upend the whole thing.
Texas Rangers
Both the Depth Charts and ZiPS have the Rangers as around a .500 team. That’s what they’ve been the last two years after their 2023 title run, so that makes sense. They’ve retooled, swapping Skip Schumaker for Bruce Bochy in the manager seat, moving Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo, and acquiring MacKenzie Gore for a bunch of prospects. The team will definitely look different than its prior iterations, but whether that moves the needle, who knows?
There are question marks and potential downsides at catcher, first base, second base, third base, and in the bullpen. But there is also a ton of upside at shortstop (hi Corey Seager) and all over the outfield, not to mention that this looks like a top-five rotation on paper. It’s a mix-and-match roster construction that could be great with some good fortune, or awful if some of the expected producers get hurt or regress. If the rotation leads the way, maybe the offense does just enough to vault them out of the .500 range.
The Athletics
No one has the Athletics as particularly good, but you don’t need to be particularly good to make a playoff run these days, and at least their roster is pretty fun. They spent the offseason handing out extensions to youngesters like Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson, while also acquiring veterans like Jeff McNeil to play babysitter.
Overall, the Athletics are projected squarely below .500, but there’s some stuff to like here. Nick Kurtz was a monster and could be monstrous again. Combined with Brent Rooker and Soderstrom, there’s some real offensive heft here in a small park. The real issue is the pitching, both on the rotation and relief end. The rotation doesn’t have much upside (Luis Severino dominating the U.S. lineup for 3 1/3 innings last night notwithstanding), and the bullpen is more about hoping for breakouts and bouncebacks than anything else. This is a roster where the position players look like a fringy contender and the pitching staff looks like a miserly rebuilder. If they can force slugfests every night in that park, though, they might make some noise, though.
Los Angeles Angels
Ah, the Angels. Has a team ever done so little with so much? Maybe they’re thankful for the Mets.
Former Brave Kurt Suzuki is the Halos’ new manager, and GM Perry Minasian may be on the hot seat as well at this point. The roster has retooled, moving Taylor Ward for Grayson Rodriguez, while signing a quintet of relievers and adding a bunch of position player depth. As the roster keeps changing, it’s hard to know exactly how it’s all going to play out, but the projections have them as the dregs of the division. You can see why, though:
- They’re projected to have the worst production from catcher and second base in MLB.
- First base, third base, the entire outfield, and DH are also poor in this regard, while projections don’t care for their bullpen additions.
- Zach Neto is one of the few exciting parts of this roster.
Basically, the Angels are hoping that a solid rotation provides cover for everything else, or that everyone gets better in a hurry. If those things don’t happen, then it’ll be consistent with prior years… again. No one will really notice that the composition of the roster has changed.
