It’s hard to believe, but we’re already a quarter of the way through UNC men’s basketball’s regular season schedule. Carolina is sporting a 7-1 record heading into Sunday’s matchup against Georgetown. The Heels have defeated fellow blood-blood programs Kansas and Kentucky in the same season for the first time since 1982; overall, I would guess most fans are happy with the start of the season.
We’re far enough into the season that the NCAA has begun releasing their NET ratings, and other generally
well-regarded metrics such as KenPom and EvanMiya have enough data to start getting a feeling for how a team is performing in various statistical categories. While there is still some early season funkiness in the data (no offense to Yale, but I doubt they’re the 32nd best team in the country), at this point it’s worth checking in on UNC’s numbers. I’m not going to go into a lot of detail on the top line numbers (they’re currently ranked 28th at KenPom, 26th at EvanMiya and 15th in the NET rankings) but rather will attempt to sift through the data to unearth a few interesting nuggets of information.
This may be the slowest-paced UNC team in 25 years.
When UNC basketball is mentioned, most fans picture a face paced team that likes to fly up and down the court and score rapidly. And for good reason; under Roy Williams, UNC often ranked as one of the fastest-paced teams in the country. Elite point guards from Ty Lawson to Kendall Marshall to Joel Berry kept the Heels on the move and pushed the tempo every chance they got.
This year, KenPom has UNC averaging 69.3 possessions a game in its Adjusted Tempos metric. This ranks Carolina as the 156th fastest team in the country — slightly above average. If this ranking holds, this would be the slowest-paced UNC team in KenPom’s rankings since 2000. EvanMiya’s metrics have the team as playing slightly faster (they rank around 100 here), but still much slower than the historical average for the Heels.
Most of this shift has been a result of the offense playing at a much more deliberate pace. This team isn’t taking quick shots or getting as many fast break opportunities as UNC teams traditionally do. There are a couple reasons for this, but part of it probably stems from Kyan Evan’s play at the point guard position. Evans is less likely to push the pace of the offense with long passes up the floor after an opponent’s missed shot.
The slower pace itself isn’t something to be concerned about; after all, Elliot Cadeau would often push the ball up the floor on long outlet passes that ended up as turnovers as often as they did layups. Playing fast on offense isn’t the end goal; playing efficiently is. Houston routinely plays at one of the slowest paces in the country and has been in the running for a Final Four berth more often than not in recent years. At this point, it’s more of a curiosity and an indication of UNC’s willingness to play through its big men then any flaw with the offense.
The Heels are, like, REALLY tall.
I’m sure this isn’t really breaking news to anyone following the Heels. The 2024-2025 team’s dearth of height was widely acknowledged and discussed; it was one of the many reasons last year’s squad ultimately had a low celling. The Heels brought in three players that are 6’10” or taller, while Zayden High’s return to the team gives the Heels four rotational players that are as tall as almost anyone on their opponent’s team.
The Heels rank first in the country in KenPom’s average height metric. They rank slightly lower in the effective height metric (eighth in the country), which weights the player’s height with their minutes. Either way, this is a stark turnaround from last year, when UNC ranked as the 305th tallest team. This is almost certainly a factor in their improved offensive rebounding numbers; the Heels are currently collecting 38.1% of their misses, up from 29.1% last year.
Carolina is elite at defending two-point shots.
UNC is allowing opponents to shoot a paltry 42.5% on two-point shots; this is the sixth best mark in the country as of the writing of this article. This number is probably bolstered a little bit by Kentucky’s utterly lifeless shooting against the Heels in their last game, but it was a strength of this team even before that matchup. Not to beat a dead horse, but when you have someone 6’10” at positions 3-5, it’s really hard to get up good shots near the basket.
Interestingly, they Heels are sporting this number despite having a relatively normal block percentage (10.3%, 142nd in the country). The Heels aren’t swatting shots left and right; they’re just playing solid positional defense with really tall dudes. The three-point defense is a bit weaker, but when UNC’s best perimeter defender (Seth Trimble) returns from injury, the Heels could become a very good defensive squad.
