Even the worst teams in baseball win a third of their games. But if you’re a playoff contender and facing one of those worst teams in baseball, letting them take two out of three with just a few dozen games left to play is devestating. If the Diamondbacks end up losing a playoff spot by a game or two, it will not be hard at all to point at the two easily winable games that they dropped to the Rockies this week. Following those losses and the completion of the other team’s games on the Diamondbacks off day,
they have fallen out of a playoff position, are half a game behind the Phillies, and a full game behind the surging Padres
The Braves are cruising to a playoff spot, and nothing short of a 30-for-30 level collapse is going to prevent them from getting it. They’re up nine games over the Phillies and have won seven of their last ten. This is just as big a test for them as the Dodgers’ series was, and their only realistic hope of making the playoffs is being successful here.
At the time of writing, the Braves had not announced any of their starting pitchers for the series yet, but here is what I can tell you. They are fourth in baseball in ERA+, fifth in traditional ERA, and eighth in WHIP. It’s not going to be easy, folks, but the saving grace might be we’ve got our best pitchers going up against them…
Game 1 — 8/14, 4:15 PM: Brandon Pfaadt (1.3 bWAR, 6-1, 3.36 ERA/125 ERA+, 1.20 WHIP) vs. TBD
Pfaadt did everything he was asked to and more last time out against the Dodgers. Seven shut out innings, with only two hits and two walks is a great start against anyone, but to put up those numbers against the Dodgers is even more impressive. Now, he has not given up an earned run in his last three starts, and only gave up a single unearned run against the Padres on 8/3. Since returning from the minors, he has yet to give up more than two earned runs and his ERA in that time period has been a sterling 1.32. In case you’re worried about regression, his FIP is only 2.89, which would also be a perfectly acceptable number from him. The Diamondbacks will need to see the greatness continue.
Game 2 — 8/15, 4:15 PM: Eduardo Rodriguez (4.2 bWAR, 11-4, 2.70 ERA/156 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP) vs. TBD
There have been cracks in Rodriguez’ armor showing in recent games. In addition to the five he gave up in 2 2/3 inning against St. Louis back on the 19th, he gave up another seven to the Padres two starts ago. He bounced back, however, and put up a strong performance against the Dodgers to compliment Pfaadt’s, going seven innings, only giving up two earned runs, and throwing a nearly unheard of 115 pitches. That may or may not be something to watch, as he has now thrown over 100 pitches in three straight games. Once upon a time, that would have been a normal thing and not worth commenting on, but these days, one has to wonder if there might be a bit of arm fatigue he’ll be facing this time around.
Game 3 — 8/16, 10:35 AM: Michael Soroka (2.3 bWAR, 8-3, 2.92 ERA/144 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP) vs. TBD
Soroka made his long awaited return from the IL in his last start against the Rockies, and it went about as well as could have been hoped. He held them scoreless for 4 1/3 innings, before a pitch limit reeled him back into the dugout. It’s hard to argue with scoreless, but the three walks were the same as he had delivered in his last four starts combined, so a slight concern. Probably just rust, but something to keep an eye on.
Conclusion
It’s weird to say after losing a series to the Rockies, but I do like our chances. We have our three best starters taking the mound, and while our offense this season is no where near as good as it was in 24/25, it still doesn’t lay dormant for long typically. Combine those two things, and I think the Diamondbacks have a good shot of taking the series and getting back into a playoff spot.
