When it comes to the starting rotation, the Orioles’ 40-man roster currently includes these names: Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Brandon Young, Tyler Wells, Trevor Rogers, Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, and Zach Eflin.
True to GM Mike Elias’s promises, the Orioles have been beefing up the offense with some new bats, notably the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso himself. They even added a new starter in Baz, acquired from Tampa for a hefty passel of prospects. But if 2026 is to go well, the Orioles need to complement
their rebooted offense with a return-to-form from one or more of Povich, Kremer, and Young, plus a successful return-from-injury from Baz, Bradish, Wells, and certainly, Zach Eflin.
You may recall that the Orioles acquired Eflin from the Rays in July 2024. He joined a rotation helmed by Corbin Burnes, but suffering from the loss, due to injury, of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Grayson Rodriguez. Eflin was really good down the stretch, exceeding expectations with a 5-2 record, 2.60 ERA, and 149 ERA+ over nine starts. The Orioles fell flat in the playoffs, but it was hardly his fault.
Eflin’s dominance, paired with the loss of free agent Burnes, made him the clear choice to be Baltimore’s Opening Day starter in 2025. He make that start, but then things quickly went sideways.
Eflin struggled to stay healthy last year (he wasn’t the only one). After just three starts, the righty went down with a right lat strain on April 9. He returned a month later but couldn’t find a groove. By mid-May, this team was in freefall, and a healthy Eflin could have provided a stabilizing presence for the roster. Instead, he hit the IL again on June 30 with lower back discomfort. It’d prove his last start of 2025, as he eventually underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy in August.
All in all, Eflin would do four stints on the IL while pitching to a 5.93 ERA in just fourteen starts.
As a pending free agent, Eflin could have been a trade chip in a season going nowhere. Instead, injuries prevented the Birds from flipping the starter for any value, and he elected free agency at season’s end. Though it wasn’t clear whether a reunion was in the cards, on December 29, the Orioles announced they were bringing him back on a one-year, $10 million deal, with a mutual option for 2027.
In a December Zoom call with the media, Eflin spoke candidly about his back issues. The injury, he explained, dated back roughly a decade, but last year it had progressively worsened, and it was the first time he couldn’t manage it at all. Surgeons discovered a bone spur pressing into a nerve—which explained the shooting pains Eflin had been dealing with. And unlike a Tommy John recovery, which can take fourteen-to-eighteen months, Eflin said he felt immediate relief after the operation, and now says he’s now in the best physical condition of his life. His first bullpen was scheduled for January 6 and his goal is to be ready for Opening Day.
So what to expect from this new-and-improved Zach Eflin?
The pessimist’s version: A guy who’s started more than 25 games only three of ten seasons in his career and who just posted a 5.93 ERA in an injury-shortened season.
The optimist’s version: The guy we saw in 2023 with Tampa Bay, when he went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA, led the American League in wins, and finished sixth in Cy Young voting. That season, his first in Tampa, Eflin set career highs in starts (31), innings (177.2), and strikeouts (186), while posting career-best marks in ERA and WHIP (1.02). Then he outdid himself the next year!
I think the bet here is reasonable, although a one-year deal certainly suggests caution by the front office. If the back pain really was a substantial part of why Eflin had an ERA near 6 for the 2025 season—his time missed strongly suggests it was—and it was corrected by a reasonably simple surgery, then there’s a plausible story where 2026 looks for him a lot more like 2023.
Plus the Orioles don’t need Eflin to be their ace this time around. Bradish, Rogers, and Baz should occupy the top spots. Guys like Eflin, Wells, and Kremer can fill out the rotation. In that role, the pressure is lower. A healthy Eflin as your No. 4 starter? Teams would kill for that.
This doesn’t mean the Orioles should stop looking for pitching. They shouldn’t. Free agents like Framber Valdez would obviously upgrade the rotation. But a healthy and effective Eflin represents a scenario where the Orioles might not need to make a splashy signing to have a good rotation. If he bounces back, if Bradish returns well from Tommy John, if Baz fulfills his potential—that’s a rotation that can compete in October. The margin for error is thin, but it exists.
Eflin himself seems to understand the stakes. “[I didn’t want] to be the guy they traded for and get hurt and not be the guy that they wanted,” he said. “That really weighed on me.” He wants to prove something. He’s motivated. And for the first time in years, he’s pain-free.
Championship windows don’t stay open indefinitely. “We want to win the World Series,” says Eflin. The Orioles know this; it’s why they signed Alonso, traded for Ward and Baz, brought in Ryan Helsley, and resigned their No. 4 starter. A bounce-back Zach Eflin might be one of the quieter pieces of this puzzle, but he could end up being one of the most important.
