The Cubs returned home and an old friend greeted them with a three-run homer in the first inning. That felt like an ominous start to this very brief three-game homestand against the Rays. But, we saw flashes of the Cubs from early this season. We saw offense that scratched and clawed their way back into the game and then eventually to a win. For the third straight game, a dominant bullpen sealed the win.
Matthew Boyd was the Cub starter. He allowed three hits and a walk in the first, then only two
hits and a walk over his last four innings. If you want to point to the very heavy workload in contrast to all of the recent years of being hurt, it’s hard to reject that. If you want to say that even the best pitchers sometimes have trouble finding their stuff in their first inning before settling in and recognizing what is working and what isn’t. That’s probably a fair explanation too. It could very likely be some quantity of each column.
The good news was the Cub bullpen saw four relievers each throw a perfect inning. I was one person who wondered earlier in the week of maybe Porter Hodge was sneaking his way into at least the second ring of Cub relievers. He threw the perfect sixth. Drew Pomeranz, who has been in that second ring for a while, threw the seventh.
Brad Keller threw the perfect eighth. He has been “THE” guy this year for the Cub bullpen. I hope he’s not even unsung at this point, at least among Cub fans. Hat tip to Craig Counsell. This has not been an unheard of thing at all this year. Unless I’ve missed it, I don’t think Andrew Kittredge, who threw the ninth, has been anointed as closer. I think, and I hope, that Keller got the eighth because it was the last time through the top three hitters in the Rays order. Granted, Junior Caminero who bats fourth has the eye popping numbers, and Kittredge ended up facing him. But, that’s a catch-22 spot. If you save Keller just for Caminero, then if Kittredge stumbles at all, do you have Keller come in to the messy inning? And also have to get more than three outs? That’s a very tall order.
Best pitcher against the key hitters on the other team. I love it. I think the next evolution of bullpen usage recognizes that you either need a 1 and a 1A reliever, or you have to consider that your best reliever needs to possibly throw the eighth if that might be the inning that decides if you win or lose.
On the offensive side, the Cubs had 12 hits, five walks and a hit batter. Among the 12 hits were two doubles, two triples and a homer. Only Pete Crow-Armstrong came up completely empty on the day. Seven Cubs had hits. Eight reached base. Six reached base multiple times. Five scored runs. Five drove in runs. This was really super balanced production. It was the kind of day where they scored six and that felt like they really let a lot of good opportunities get away.
Another win. This is now the most wins since 2019. The Cubs would have to put it into overdrive to reach the heights of the 2018 Cubs who won 95 games. It has become one of my favorite things that so many people who pegged this team for 80-85 wins are also viewing this team as a disappointment. It’s such a fun flip flop. Because that means that the team that you thought had a talent level of 80-85 firmly convinced you that they should win 90-95 games and then subsequently disappointed you.
I saw this team winning 91 games before the season and as it turns out, it’s looking probably that I’m maybe a win or two low with that prediction. What a pleasant surprise that has been and a fun ride. I hope most of you found some opportunity to really sit back, kick your feet up and enjoy just how good this team can be at times.
Pitch Counts:
- Rays: 166, 40 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 131, 33 BF
This is a dumpster fire for the Rays pitching staff. 20.75 pitches per inning. 16 batters over the minimum. It’s either a real credit to them or ineptitude of the Cub offense (some of both) that this one didn’t get out of hand. On the other side, the Cub pitchers kept it under 15 pitches per inning (14.55). My rule of thumb is up to 15, good for the pitching, 16-20 damage control, 21+ you are in some real trouble. Boyd was a little over 16 pitches per inning and then the bullpen brought it back.
Three Rays relievers threw more than 20 pitches (Uceta, Jax and Orze). In the case of Orze, it was 37 pitches. It’s notable that the Rays played Thursday too. The Cubs are going to be in a lot better position for this series strategically. No Cub reliever threw more than 17 pitches. Hodges threw the 17. Certainly, one of his downsides is that he’s not super efficient with his pitches. That can contribute to things going sideways for him when they do. His margin of error isn’t massive. The Cubs should have a loaded bullpen Saturday. It becomes a bigger concern that this was just number one of 10 straight. But the Cubs won a close one without getting sideways in the pen.
- Ian Happ with a single, double, homer, two runs driven in and a walk. That wRC+ sits at 116 after this one. That’s his career number. He’s been better than that three years running, so he needs a big finish still. Put otherwise, without a big finish, this will be the worst wRC+ of his career in a 600+ PA season.
- Brad Keller struck out two of three he faced, for the second straight game, taking the eighth inning against the other team’s most productive hitters.
- Nico Hoerner with a single, triple, walk and two runs scored. Nico ticks his batting average up to .296. For a pure contact hitter, he’s just shy of the gold standard. At 28-years-old, the best year of his career.
Game 147, September 12: Cubs 6, Rays 4 (84-63)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Ian Happ (.230). 3-4, HR, 2B, BB, 2 RBI, R
- Hero: Moisés Ballesteros (.127). 2-4, 3B, RBI, R
- Sidekick: Dansby Swanson (.088). 1-3, 2B, HBP, RBI, R
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Matthew Boyd (-.152). 5 IP, 21 BF, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, K, WP (W 13-8)
- Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.086). 0-5
- Kid: Carson Kelly (-.085). 1-5
WPA Play of the Game: Christopher Morel’s three-run homer in the first inning, just three batters into the game. (.182)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Moisés Ballesteros tripled with one out in the third inning and a runner on first to break a 3-3 tie. (.163)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Previous Winner: Nico Hoerner (66) over Carson Kelly (49), Andrew Kittredge (40) and others (176 total votes)
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd/Shōta Imanaga +20
- Jameson Taillon/Brad Keller +16
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -20.33
- Carson Kelly -21
- Seiya Suzuki -29
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) lose (Cubs up 4.5). Mets (WC 3) lose (Cubs up 8.5). Giants win (Cubs up 9). The Giants need to win out to reach 90 wins. Reds lose (the Reds can win 89 games max). The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 7 with 15 games to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers won (Cubs down 5.5). We’ll count down the magic number against the Giants/Reds until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
Colin Rea (10-6, 4.20, 141.1 IP) gets his 25th start (30th appearance). His last outing followed an opener. He threw 5.1 IP and allowed three hits, no walks and one run. He struck out six. He didn’t get the win, but helped the team get into position to win (before they collapsed late). Barring something completely unforeseeable, he’ll fall just short of enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Not that he’s in the team photo, but I always think that’s a bit of a special accomplishment. Interestingly, he’s pitched a lot more at home (87 IP/17 G) than on the road (54.1 IP/12 G). It goes hand in hand more innings during the day (89.2 IP v 51.2 IP). That works out because he’s nominally better at home and during the day.
30-year-old Drew Rasmussen has been one of the bright stars for the Rays (10-5, 2.64, 139.2 IP). He was the sixth-round pick of the Brewers in 2018 (185 overall). He’s righty and the Cubs are 65-43 when a righty starts. The other best split for the Cubs is 29-17 against AL teams. So those are the silver linings. There is no question this is a tough matchup. Rasmussen is only 2-0 over his last seven despite a 1.83 ERA (39.1 IP) with a 30/6 K/BB. He’s been terrific throughout and is finishing strong. He’s been much better during the day (2.08 vs. 3.02).
This is a tough one. This would be a tricky one to grab a fourth straight win, but what a big win it would be.
