There are only two players remaining on the roster whose statistical doppelgangers interest me much: CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton. Today, we’ll run McCollum through the Statistical Doppelganger Machine.
McCollum was a little better than average when he could stay on the court. He managed 56 games. Odds are, he’ll probably be around average again, though he’s at an age where a sudden and steep decline is normal. Improvement is unlikely.
When the season ends (if not sooner) he’ll be gone, unless he’s
willing to stick around as an assistant coaches in uniform mentor making a lot less. Which wouldn’t be a bad thing — he’s well respected and probably has much to teach Washington’s youngsters. That said, he’ll probably make more money and be able to have a meaningful role on a good team trying to win something.
For those new to the doppelganger series, here’s the sum up:
Weary of player comps based on superficial traits like height, build, perceived athleticism, nationality, and skin color, I joined the legion* of stat goobers in constructing an algorithm that uses statistics to generate players with similar production patterns.
Editor’s Note: A legion consisted of 5,000 to 6,000 soldiers. This “legion” Kevin mentions is maybe 10 people, which makes it more like a modern squad.
My version uses 14 categories including box score stats and age. I don’t use height or position, though players tend to get comps from the same position group.
For McCollum, who was 33 last season, the Machine spits out guards who could shoot and a non-rebounding forward who could shoot.
- Jordan Clarkson, 2022-23, Utah Jazz | Age 30 — Decent bench scorer. McCollum had the better career and has aged better.
- Klay Thompson, 2022-23, Golden State Warriors | Age 32 — All-time shooter (one of The Splash Brothers with Steph Curry) who returned from Achilles and ACL tears better than could have been expected. This was his first full season back from those injuries.
- Jamal Crawford, 2013-14, Los Angeles Clippers | Age 33 — Sixth Man extraordinaire. I’d argue McCollum was the better player. Crawford played a full schedule until age 38!
- Jason Terry, 2008-09, Dallas Mavericks | Age 31 — Pretty comparable to McCollum with comparable peaks (both in the 160s). Terry had better fortune in teammates and roster construction.
- Bojan Bogdanovic, 2023-24, Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks | Age 34 — Bogdanovic was a forward and much bigger than McCollum, though it’s fair to say he didn’t play much bigger — especially in his age and injury-related to decline.
- Klay Thompson, 2023-24, Golden State Warriors | Age 33 — See #2, above.
- Terry Rozier, 2022-23, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat | Age 28 — Good player in his prime (peak PPA: 162) the season before this one. In this one, his PPA was 103. He bounced back somewhat the following season, and then cratered last year for the Heat.
- Jamal Crawford, 2009-10, Atlanta Hawks | Age 29 — See #3, above.
- Kemba Walker, 2020-21, Boston Celtics | Age 30 — Superb small guard with a peak PPA of 172 and multiple seasons in the 160s. His descent was fast — 166 PPA at age 29 in Boston followed by a 140 (this season), following by a 116 with the Knicks. He was out of the league at 32 after just nine games with Dallas.
- J.J. Redick, 2018-19, Philadelphia 76ers | Age 34 — Great movement shooter who didn’t really hit his NBA stride until his late 20s. He peaked at 31 and remained an above average player until injuries and age caught up with him at 35 and 36.
So, a mix of very good players in decline and decent players who aged well.
Next up: Khris Middleton.
