Hello, Friends (Jim Nantz voice). Note that this was written prior to the team delivering their 8th win in a row against a VERY GOOD Colorado Avalanche
team and will now head out on the road, starting with (checks notes) the Colorado Avalanche. Since then they have not looked great and we lost Brett Pesce, so the past two games aren’t included. I do believe we are closer tot he 8 win team than the past two, and I felt it wasn’t a great sample to include info onThe two recent losses have tamped my
excitement for how our boys started this season – even in my wildest delusions I didn’t think this team would open the season they did (and trust me there are some things going on in my head). There is legitimately very little to complain about, and honestly any complaints would be mostly nitpicking. I’d like to see the injury train stop, but if you look around the league, there are A LOT of consequential players on the shelf: Both Tkachuks, Barkov, half of Carolina’s D Corps, Kopitar, McCann, Trocheck, Ristolainen, Rempe… the list goes on. (LOL just kidding about consequential on the last one).
The word of the season has been maturity. These guys know they have talent, they also know they haven’t lived up to it the last two years. Marred by a litany of issues from injuries to goaltending to ineffective depth, this is the year to step it up finally and cement their status among the elite teams. Jared wrote an excellent blog about maturity and so far this team has shown they are taking this next step seriously. We are not “young” anymore. Nico and Bratt are in year 9. Timo is 29, Dougie is 32, Luke just signed his first long term deal and has been legal at bars for a year. Markstrom and Allen hit Tops Diner for dinner at 4:30pm and get discounts at the movies. It’s time.
While the offense has been clicking and is a story for another time, a large part of the the early season success has been the defensive group. The biggest off-ice add this season was Brad Shaw as a defensive coach, who came in with an immaculate resume working with both young high-end defenseman as well as adding layers to the games of established veterans.
Similar to 24-25, the Devils have been very consistent with their pairings to start the season:
Luke – Pesce (TOI – 107:51)
Siegs – Dougie (TOI – 111:46)
Dillon – Nemec (TOI – 92:13)
All three pairs bring something a little different to the table and are an excellent mix of veterans with the two yutes. We have a little bit of everything you want in a defensive group: physicality, defensive acumen, offensive play driving, some menace, length, speed, and a kung fu movie goatee. Overall the group has given 19 goals through 8 games at all strengths which is 2.4 GA/60, good for 6th in the league. Obviously our PK has been outstanding (more on that later), so at 5v5 we have given up 14 total goals (2.3 GA/G), good for 14th. If you remove the Carolina game, which seems more and more like an outlier, we are 9th in the league at 1.9 GA/G at 5v5.
So here they are by the numbers, by pairing in rates per 60 at 5v5:
Luke and Brett
The first thing that stands out to me is that we have a new #1 pairing, and that isn’t just for the Devils. Luke and Pesce are vying for best D pair in the league. Don’t believe me? Here are some league wide ranks amongst pairs that have been on ice for over 100 minutes:
1st in corsi/shot attempts for %
3rd in total shots taken
2nd in Goals for %
1st in goals against (1)
3rd in scoring chances %
1st in shot advantage
2nd in shots against
7th in high danger chances %
The only other pair in the league that are top of the charts across this many offensive and defensive categories is Makar and Toews. The one stat here that could be construed as fishy is is the GF%, since its only 3 GF to 1 GA and early int he season, but this is a very encouraging start.
Pesce continues to be his rock steady self with elite stick work and a warrior attitude. He would jump in front of a ‘76 Cadillac Fleetwood if it was coming for the goal and sits 9th in the league for blocked shots per 60 at 8.1. He’s also mixed in a few apples with 3 so far.
His mentorship and pairing with Luke has been a dream for us – and it continues to pay dividends. Luke has hit yet another level on both sides of the puck, his decisions have been crisp in all three zones and his game has taken another major leap thus far. His work at the offensive blue line has been particularly noticeable as he uses his skating and reach to easily beat pressure and is yet to mix in a blunder as he was prone to do the past two years.
Mixtape?
Quietly, he has also put up 5 assists and was visibly frustrated (to say the least) after missing a few quality chances against the Sharks.
Defensively his game has leveled up again with the addition of more physical play. He can still easily beat out a forechecker with his speed, but in contested footraces he has added much better body positioning with light touch of bullying to his repertoire. This is aided by much improved gap control, and with his reach and skating has become a total eraser. His 50/50 puck battles have seemingly improved drastically as well as he uses strength and elite stickwork to easily separate the puck and turn it back up ice.
Mixtape?
Dougie and Jonas
Dougie and Jonas leads the Devils in ice time, and that is largely due to their deployment against the other teams top forwards. They have had some mixed results from the fancies, but while other teams may be winning the xGF percentages, they are giving up less than 2 goals per 60 at 5v5 against some of the best talent in the league and rely on a bend but don’t break philosophy.
Carolina: Against Ehlers and Aho they logged over 5 minutes with an xGF of 32%
Tampa Bay: Against Kuch, Hagel and Point they logged 5 minutes+ with an xGF of 82%
Columbus: Against Marchenko/Voronkov/Monihan they logged 8+ minutes and an xGF of 34%
Florida: Against Reinhart and Verhaege the logged 6+ minutes with an xGF of 92%
Edmonton: Against Draisatl they logged 6:30+ with an average xGF of 85%
Toronto: Against Matthews they logged 6+ minutes with an xGF of 92%
Minnesota: Against Karpizov and Boldy the logged 12+ minutes with an xGF of 30%
San Jose: Against Celebrini and Smith the logged 10+ minutes with an xGF of 82%
Oh, and by the way all those guys I just mentioned had almost 350 goals and over 900 points combined last year. In 8 games they combined for only 2 goals and 2 assists, including nothing for Draisatl, Matthews or Kaprizov.
There isn’t much to say about Jonas that we don’t already know. Like Pesce he’s just an absolute rock, play killer, and a bit of a lowkey menace. Scrum? Jonas is in the middle of it. He is an artist at eliminating passing lanes, killing plays before they become problems. One of the steadiest defenders we have had over the past few years.
Dougie seems like a reborn player this season. His offense is still high end, and his shot seems back to 22-23 levels. What has been somewhat surprising is howe good he has been has been defensively as well as morphing into a physical force. It’s almost as if someone had the “you’re the big guy” speech with him from Mystery, Alaska (watch it if you haven’t), because he has laid someone out in nearly every game. His stickwork in the defensive zone has been excellent and his pinching and decisions have been good so far.
Keefe on Dougie working with Brad Shaw:
“His consistency in his play, shift to shift has been better,” Keefe said. “I think Brad Shaw spent a lot of time with him, has been very clear with him in terms of expectations and then he’s followed that up by giving him great opportunity. He’s been a very consistent and regular contributor on our penalty kill, that forces him to be in a defensive mindset, to check, to play hard, to be competitive, to be in a situation where you’re shorthanded, the added level of urgency and desperation that comes with that. I think that just bleeds into the rest of your game. We’ve been really happy with Dougie.”
I continue to maintain it would be a massive mistake to let him go this season, even with the trade rumors swirling.
Dougie Defense tape?
Brendan and Simon
It has been somewhat of a strange year for these two so far. Their numbers and play have been pretty good in terms of chance generation and chance suppression in the 3rd pair deployment, but a lot of stuff seems to happen while they’re on the ice as evidenced by the 8 GF and 7 GA at 5v5. That seems a little incongruous with their strong xGA rates and chances/high danger chances against rates. Then you look at their on ice save percentage of .825 and on ice shooting percentage of 20% – and yeah that will lead to some chaos. Throw in Lazar scoring a meaningless goal with 1 second left and Tavares batting it out of mid-air.. Things should probably regress a bit (or should they?).
Dillon wasn’t very good last season, and his post-season neck surgery was well documented. So far in about 13 minutes a night of 5v5 ice time, he has been dramatically better at both ends of the ice and his back to back GWGs vaulted him to the top of the Norris Trophy tracker for 30-45 seconds. As a vibes guy who brings some menace, he is an important piece in this group and has middle of the pack metrics basically across the board amongst the Devils defensemen. He leads the group in defensive zone starts, and is the only defender on the team with an even distribution of zone start time, all the others are heavily weighted offensively/neutral zone. He is also a stud on the PK (see below).
Nemec seems to be a bit of a whipping boy this year (we always need one). Quick trivia: Who leads the Devils in blocked shots amongst defenseman? Its Nemec (and Dougie) with 12. Nemec is also the leader in blocked shots per 60. He is still showing some growing pains and has been on for 9 of the 14 5v5 goals so far this season, but as above a lot of that can be contributed to some excessive negative PDO (“puck luck”).
Largely, He’s been inconsistent, and is prone to a bad combination of overcommitment coupled with lackluster effort.
A Perfect example of this was on Macelli’s goal against Toronto:
He steps up to Tavares just outside the blueline but just kinda waves his stick. If you’re going to step up, STEP UP and take the man or puck with the intention of disruption – force a turnover or bad pass.
However, when he executes properly, he has shown good results. On Jack’s 2nd goal in Toronto he had a great gap and pressured an early pass. Then he had the wherewithal to pick Domi, so Bratt could swoop in and hit Jack far side. He will always have some risk in his game, that was part of his profile, he just needs to do a better job of mitigating it – basically more of the latter, less of the former.
Last bit on Simon – He’s added 4 assists in 8 games with no PP time, and has been very good in the offensive zone – active, aggressive, good pinches down the wall, has a very good shot, and finds creative passing lanes. We all know there is a RD crunch, but I still have faith that he will start to eliminate the rough performances, and we have plenty of time to evaluate where this team is when Johnny comes back.
The PK
Have you ever seen something so glorious it makes you weep? Aside from Jack carving up the neutral zone and Connor Brown that is. For me, it’s the PK which has been dialed in from game 1, delivering 21 straight kills. We would’ve gotten away with more if it wasn‘t for those pesky kids. Looking around the league, somehow 93.1% is only 3rd, but the good news is we are still net 100% thanks to Bratt and Brown shorties. I wrote this in my special teams preview, but I’m greedy – I want to finish 1st at the end of the season. Having an elite PK allows you to walk a fine line a little more, be more aggressive and frankly a little scarier. Similar to a pitcher who throws 100+ with no control – am I going to hit you? Might want to think twice about crossing the blue line or getting frisky in front of our goalies.
Defensively this is where Dillon and Pesce thrive, as both are nearing 4 minutes a night in PK time (16th and 18th in the league among defesneman) while Dougie and Siegs are nearing 2 1/2 minutes a game. Luke and Nemec have gotten some limited deployment if one of the above guys is in the box. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Glendening and Brown who have stepped in to join the first unit with Nico and Mercer getting similar icetime. Jack and Bratt continue to see more and more deployment on the PK as well.
Keefe mentioned that the kill is largely being run by Brad Shaw, and while there isn’t a ton of new and exciting ways to deploy a PK, I have noticed some shiny new upgrades and changes. First, there is a measured aggressiveness relative to years past, where we were generally a collapsing unit. This starts up top and new additions Brown and Glendening have immediately bolstered an already elite group of PK forwards. Nico and Mercer have been doing there thing – and I have been wildly impressed with Mercer this year. Similar to Dougie, he heard the rumors and got to work. Jack and Bratt continue to get mixed in, and Bratt is in the top 20 for shorthanded chance generation in his 9 minutes so far.
Defensively, Pesce is 3rd and Dillon is 9th in shots blocked on the PK amongst all defenseman and Dougie is up there in shot block rates. One of the concerns in the back of my mind to start the seasons was how they replace Kovacevic’s PK minutes and Dougie has filled in admirably. POP QUIZ #2: Who leads the Devils in shot attempts against per 60 and xGA/60 on the PK? Fooled you – It’s Luke, but Dougie is right behind and Luke’s sample size is a little small to think his numbers are real.
Final Thoughts
We are good.
Very good.
Keep being good, please.
Do you think we’re good?
