I am an optimist. My definition of Diamondbacks success is reaching the playoffs. Today, my thoughts are making a rare walk through the dark side to address what kept the Diamondbacks from success.
Let’s look at eleven reasons. My view is that 4 reasons had no negative impact, 3 reasons had low negative impact (perhaps one win), and 4 reasons had high negative impact.
No Negative Impact.
1. Trade Deadline Moves Compared to the Phillies.
“We can sit here and kick ourselves for the trade deadline and say we could have done
more…” Derrick Hall interview on Arizona Sports
A table in this AZ Snake Pit article (4 August) showed that at the trade deadline these two teams needed the same things (starting pitcher, relief pitcher, and a left-handed batter). Phillies did more to address their needs by acquiring two relief pitchers (Caleb Kilian and Brooks Raley), as well as second baseman Luis Arraez. The Diamondbacks acquired Lars Nootbaar.
Surprisingly, it could be argued that Nootbaar made more impact than three acquisitions by the Phillies. The following list is a top-level view of the impact of these players.
- D-backs, Lars Nootbaar: 113 OPS+
- Phillies, Caleb Kilian: 37 ERA+
- Phillies, Brooks Raley: 58 ERA+
- Phillies, Luis Arraez: 82 OPS+
The Diamondbacks trade-deadline acquisition was the only one who performed above average.
2. Torey Lovullo.
“I know there are Torey critics out there, but look at the job he’s done…This year is probably his best year, even with his 2023 getting to the World Series. … He’s done a terrific, terrific job this year…” Derrick Hall interview on Arizona Sports
My view is that this season had more challenges than any of his previous seasons; and despite the challenges he nearly led the team into the playoffs.
3. Drama & Distraction of Ketel Marte. The Diamondbacks lost two of three games while Marte was on the restricted list. However, I would attribute those losses to poor pitching with 9 and 11 runs allowed in the losses. Furthermore, my view is that Torey Lovullo handled the situation masterfully to prevent any impact.
4. Season Record was 6-7 Vs Padres. Blame could be placed on losing the last two games of the season against the Padres. The Padres are a great team, worthy of the playoffs. The win-loss record is about what I would expect, even if the Diamondbacks reached the playoffs.
Low Negative Impact.
5. At Chase Field, Too Many Losses to Rockies. In away games, the Rockies won 26 and lost 55. At Chase Field, the Rockies did better with 3 wins and 4 losses. If Chase was an average venue, the Rockies would have one less win (and the Diamondbacks one more win).
6. The Padres Win Streak. From 6-20 September, the Padres won 13 of 14 games. That put them ahead of the Diamondbacks in the race for a Wild-Card position.
7. Inconsistent and Poorly Performing Players at First Base.
This season, the team Wins Above Average (WAA) at first base was negative 2.4. This season, Ildemaro Vargas had the most games at first base (74 games). This season, he seemed to mostly share the position:
- April/May, shared with Jose Fernandez
- June, shared with Pavin Smith
- July/August, shared with Tim Tawa and Tyler Locklear
- September, shared with Tim Tawa and Pavin Smith
For more detail, see this AZ Snake Pit article, which will be posted next week.
High Negative Impact.
8. Losses in 1-run Games Compared to the Phillies. The Phillies lost fewer 1-run games than the Diamondbacks (16 vs 21). My view is that difference accounts for a 5-win difference between the teams.
Another view is to compare the percentage of 1-run games lost. The Phillies lost a smaller percentage of 1-run games (39% vs 43%).
9. In June and July, Injuries to Starting Pitchers. Albeit, significant injuries happened prior to June and July, those two months were the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back. The following list shows the impacts.
- Corbin Burnes, about June, tore his Teres Major which delayed his return to 8 September.
- Ryne Nelson, 16 June to 16 September, returned as a reliever.
- Michael Soroka, 20 June to 5 July, worse ERA upon return; Dbacks lost 5 of 7 games.
- Zac Gallen, 9 July to 7 September, returned as a reliever.
10. Heavy Use of Young and Inexperienced Bullpen Pitchers. Two examples stand out:
Jose Cabrera, 24 years old, instrumental in 3 losses: 27 June, 3 July, 26 September.
Mitch Bratt, 22 years old, instrumental in 2 losses: 25 July, 11 August.
11. Decline in Performance of Three Batters. The following list shows this season’s decline for three outstanding players:
- Ketel Marte, 2025: 147 OPS+, 2026: 107 OPS+
- Corbin Carroll, 2025: 143 OPS+, 2026: 120 OPS+
- Geraldo Perdomo, 2025: 138 OPS+, 2026: 110 OPS+
Summary.
There were four main reasons why the Diamondbacks missed the playoffs:
- Five more losses in 1-run games compared to the Phillies.
- In June and July, four starting pitchers were injured (Burnes, Nelson, Soroka, and Gallen).
- Heavy use of young and inexperienced bullpen pitchers.
- Three batters declined (Marte, Carroll, and Perdomo).
