The NFL Draft begins Thursday in Pittsburgh rumors have been swirling about which prospect teams will pick. The Minnesota Vikings have been linked to safety Dillon Thieneman and more recently to tight end Kenyon Sadiq, although not as strongly as Thieneman has been.
However, there is no guarantee either prospect will be available when the Vikings are on the clock at #18. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some likely scenarios for the Vikings for the first night of the draft.
The Likely First Prospects Drafted
For the Vikings,
it doesn’t really matter much which team picks the top ten prospects. It’s highly unlikely the Vikings are going to trade up into the top ten so if Caleb Downs is picked at #5 or #9 isn’t relevant. What is relevant are which of the top prospects are picked ahead of the Vikings. With that in mind, here are the top prospects that are highly likely to be picked in the top ten and effectively out of reach for the Vikings:
- QB Fernando Mendoza
- ED Arvell Reese
- ED David Bailey
- RB Jeremiyah Love
- LB Sonny Styles
- WR Carnell Tate
- CB Mansoor Delane
- S Caleb Downs
- WR Jordyn Tyson
- ED Rueban Bain Jr.
Beyond these ten prospects, I would also add the two top offensive line prospects as very likely to be taken ahead of the Vikings. They are:
- OT Francis Mauigoa
- OT Spencer Fano
All of the above names are -130 (56.5% implied probability) of being selected in the top ten and even higher therefore that they’d be selected in the top 15.
#12: Where the First Round Gets Interesting
Dallas owns the twelfth pick in the draft and there has been rumors that they could trade this pick either up or down. Stephen Jones said its not possible for them to trade up into the top five, presumably ruling that out. But if the Cowboys don’t trade this pick, there is a chance that their preferred prospects for this pick are gone. If that were the case, they might look to trade down or if that didn’t work out, pick the top player on their board, even if its not a great value at #12.
There really isn’t a good read on who the Cowboys may pick here if they don’t trade the pick. DraftKings has Mansoor Delane at the most likely pick at +600, which is a lot lower probability for the favorite compared to just about any other draft slot in the top 15-20. And Delane is likely to be gone by twelve. The Cowboys reportedly have first-round grades on just twelve players this year
One of the more likely options if all the above names are off the board is Dillon Thieneman, who has been linked heavily to the Vikings. Jermod McCoy had been linked to the Cowboys, but apparently there are significant medical concerns with McCoy that he may need an additional knee surgery to correct a problem and his knee issue may be a degenerative condition. Given those concerns, McCoy is now expected to be drafted in the late first round or possibly second round.
This is also where multiple trades could happen
There is also considerable speculation that there could be multiple trades in this range of the first round as teams looking for an offensive lineman may look to trade up. Some teams picking in this range may also be willing to trade down a bit and select an edge rusher.
As it stands currently, the Rams picking at #13 are thought to be looking at a pass catcher, most likely Makai Lemon, but possibly Kenyon Sadiq.
The Ravens at #14 have been strongly linked to the top guard in the draft Olaivavega Ioane, which is also a big need. They have also been rumored to be willing to trade down a bit too.
Tampa Bay picks next at #15 but is rumored to be looking to trade down a bit and pick an edge rusher, most likely Akheem Mesidor. However, if they don’t trade down there is a significant chance that they take Kenyon Sadiq here, who has been linked to the Vikings recently. The rumor that the Bucs are looking to trade down may indicate that the Bucs prefer to draft an edge rusher first, but they have met with every tight end expected to be drafted in the first three or four rounds.
The Jets pick at #16 and are rumored to be targeting a receiver here, possibly Omar Cooper Jr.
The Lions pick next and are widely thought to prefer tackle Kadyn Proctor. In fact, they may be a candidate to trade up a few spots to get their guy.
And Then the Vikings Are On the Clock
I expect one way or another Kadyn Proctor will be off the board by the time the Vikings are on the clock, which would leave the following prospects available (most likely) ranked by the consensus board with prospects the Vikings have met with during the pre-draft process in bold:
- #14 OT Monroe Freeling
- #15 CB Jermod McCoy
- #17 TE Kenyon Sadiq
- #18 S Dillon Thieneman
- #20 ED Keldric Faulk
- #23 WR KC Concepcion
- #24 S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- #25 WR Denzel Boston
- #26 OT Caleb Lomu
- #27 OT Blake Miller
- #28 DT Peter Woods
- #29 Kayden McDonald
I’m guessing if these are the prospects available when the Vikings are on the clock at #18 the Vikings will pick Kenyon Sadiq.
It’s unclear who is the highest player available on the Vikings’ board, but the Vikings have met with a couple safety prospects expected to be drafted on Day Two (Treydan Stukes and Jalon Kilgore) and just one tight end (Oscar Delp). But more than that, drafting Sadiq here could accomplish a few things. First, given Sadiq’s skillset, it sharply reduces the need to draft for another wide receiver. Maybe a late Day Three pick instead of a potential Day Two pick. Secondly, it could make T.J. Hockenson expendable via trade, saving $10 million in cap space this year, although not sure if the Vikings will actually do so. Sadiq also has the skillset that fits very well with existing personnel and the direction the Vikings want to go offensively. Sadiq isn’t a traditional tight end- he’s an H-back that can be WR3, block, motion, and run jet sweeps. And he allows the Vikings to blur 11 and 12 personnel.
The Vikings have a lot more needs on defense, and there is a good chance the next three picks would be defensive players if the Vikings took Sadiq here.
If Sadiq is not available, I expect the Vikings will consider trading down, even if Thieneman is available. They’ll take Thieneman if no trade deal can be done and he’s available. If they trade down, Kayden McDonald could be in play.
We’ll see how it plays out shortly.
Stay tuned.
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