I’ll say that I didn’t feel great on Sunday night when the Green Bay Packers went into halftime down 16-7 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The offense had looked pretty good up until that point, but some key drops on 3rd down led to some drives that had sputtered out. Then they outscored the Steelers 28-9 in the second half and suddenly I felt pretty good again.
The Packers had 6 drives in the 2nd half. They scored touchdowns on three of them and field goals on two, and the last one was a 2:07 minute run-out-the-clock
drive. Not too shabby.
In this space, we dig into the Packers passing game, so let’s take a look.
The most talked-about stat from the passing game was Love completing 20 straight passes, and that’s a big part of the story of the Packers passing game against the Steelers. The rushing game had a hard time getting on track but Love played a tremendous game.
Love’s overall completion% of 78.4% is good, but if you factor in throwaways, his completion% jumps up to 82.9%. Per RBSDM, his ADOT (Average Depth of Target) was a relatively low 5.8 yards, which you can see in the chart above. There are quite a few throws behind the line of scrimmage, but he operated well in the 0-10 yard range and hit on a couple big plays down the field.
The low ADOT was twofold: against this Steelers defense, getting the ball out and forcing their linebackers to tackle is not a terrible strategy. Combine that with the Steelers having guys like TJ Watt and Nick Herbig to rush the passer, and getting the ball out quickly is a pretty good way to operate.
The Steelers came into this game allowing 798 YAC (Yards After Catch), 13th in the league. They didn’t improve in this game, giving up 256 in YAC in this game alone (the #2 team in YAC given up this week was the Falcons, with 154 yards). The biggest gainer was Tucker Kraft, gaining 131 YAC on his 7 catches. Just to make sure I know that’s not a typo, I’ll say it again: Tucker Kraft had 7 catches for 143 yards, and 131 of those yards came after the catch. That’s absurd.
Knowing that they had an advantage against the Steelers in the YAC game, part of the plan seemed to be to get the ball out quickly and let the playmakers go to work. Love’s average time to throw in this game was 2.64 seconds, his second quickest time to throw this season. Per NextGen, he was tied with Kirk Cousins for the fifth quickest time-to-throw this past weekend.
On the whole, Love played really well (surprise surprise). He had his “Favre on my shoulder telling me to chuck it” moment, but it worked out well this time.
Other than that, he operated the offense well. The pass rate was up a bit (59.7% pass rate in this game, slightly above their season average of 55.6%), but nothing too crazy. Still, they leaned on the pass a little heavier than normal and Love rewarded them with his best game of the season. He operated this offense well, always knowing where the answers were when the defense dropped into some funky coverages or pressure started to get home.
Alright let’s look at a couple plays. We’ll start with an example of knowing where his answers are, move to the big pass to Watson, then close out with Tucker Kraft’s touchdowns.
Play 1: 3rd & 3, 4:47 remaining in the 2nd quarter
It’s 3rd & 3 and the Packers trot out Bow on the bottom with Tucker Kraft [85] and Romeo Doubs [87]. Bow is a two-man concept, with a Hitch/Arrow from the inside and a Basic/Dig route wrapping over the top.
It’s a play that’s designed to go to the Basic route, working down to the Arrow as the second read in that concept. That Arrow also functions as the Hot read in the concept.
The Steelers have 6 defenders showing rush at the line: a wide, 4-man front and two players mugging the A gap. At the snap, they bring 4, dropping both of the muggers and a man off the line on the right, while bringing a corner blitz off the outside and sending TJ Watt on a twist up the middle.
Love checks the droppers and sees one of them dropping right to the middle. He quickly looks to Kraft on the Arrow, getting the ball out and away from the middle of the field.
Sadly, Kraft drops the pass, but I wanted to highlight this one to show Love’s processing against a chaotic defense and great placement on the throw.
Play 2: 3rd & 7, 00:35 remaining in the 3rd quarter
Welcome back, Christian Watson. On the day, Watson had 4 catches (on 4 targets) for 85 yards, coming in as the second-leading receiver on the day (behind Kraft’s 143 yards). Not too shabby on his 36 snaps.
This big play comes off a Mills variant, with Matthew Golden [0] running a Dig route and Watson with a post over the top. The Steelers have a single-high safety and his movement dictates the read here. When that safety pinches down on Golden, it means Watson has inside leverage on his defender with no safety help over the top.
The Steelers bring pressure and Love knows he won’t have time to sit in the pocket and wait for this to develop, so he escapes to the right to buy some time, then throws a bomb to Watson.
The ball hangs up a bit over the middle, but there’s enough on it to clear the safety and land safely in the hands of Watson for 33 yards.
Josh Jacobs would rush for a TD two plays later, giving the Packers a 22-19 lead.
Play 3: 1st & 10, 5:12 remaining in the 1st quarter
This is Tucker Kraft’s first touchdown, and the decision here is pretty interesting. Kraft motions pre-snap to put the Packers in a 3×1 Nub look (“Nub” is when the only receiving option on a side of the field is the in-line TE) and the Steelers linebackers shift with the motion, putting Cole Holcomb [55] over Kraft.
The Packers are running an RPO: a wide zone run paired with a WR screen to the right. This is a pre-snap read, with Love making the decision on whether to hand off or throw based on the numbers/leverage to the pass side. If Packers have more receivers to a side than the defense has defenders, they’ll throw. Likewise, if the Packers have an extreme leverage advantage on the receiver (in this case, Kraft), they’ll throw. If neither of those things is true, they’ll hand the ball to the running back.
With the shift over, Kraft looks to be even with Holcomb: that is, no outside leverage. In most circumstances, Love would opt to hand the ball off. However, since Kraft is moving laterally with the motion – and Holcomb is only slightly drifting – they’ll have leverage post-snap. So Love throws to Kraft in the flat – just past the outstretched arms of TJ Watt – and Kraft plows his way forward for a touchdown.
The spacing of the handoff is pretty weird, with Jacobs running into Love. That causes a slight delay in the release.
Play 4: 3rd & 4, 11:04 remaining in the 4th quarter
We’re ending things with a beauty. The Packers start in a 3×1 bunch, but Watson shifts across the formation pre-snap, putting them in a 2×2 look. That leaves Romeo Doubs [87] and Tucker Kraft in a stack on the right. Doubs is running a corner route while Kraft is running an Angle route, pushing outside initially before cutting back in. It’s a bit like the Texas/F-Post concept from days of yore.
With Jalen Ramsey [5] following Watson across the field, this looks like man coverage, with this play designed to go to Kraft. The initial outside push from Kraft widens the defender ever-so-slightly, and the vertical route from Doubs creates just enough traffic for a nice angle for Kraft.
Kraft gets the ball in his hands and outraces the defense to the end zone.
This play pushed the Packers’ lead to 29-19 and then it was all over but the crying.
Albums listened to: Skullcrusher – And Your Song Is Like A Circle; Elliott – Song in the Air; John Carpenter – Halloween Soundtrack [2019]
