Moses Itauma and Filip Hrgovic will fight for the vacant IBF heavyweight title on Saturday in London, with the two fighters at very different career stages but both looking to claim their first serious title in pro boxing.
Can the 21-year-old Itauma (14-0, 12 KO) keep marching toward what seems a destined greatness? Is the 34-year-old Hrgovic (20-1, 15 KO) the man to give him his first reality check as a pro?
Let’s take a look at the matchup and make our picks.
Moses vs Hrgovic: Recent Form
by Scott Christ
21-year-old Moses Itauma
has shot into the heavyweight spotlight quickly, turning pro in early 2023 on a Queensberry show at Wembley Arena. After that first fight on January 28, 2023, he was 7-0 (5 KO) by the time the calendar turned over to 2024.
It was obvious, rapidly, that this was a potentially special talent. Most people — especially as young as he was — fight some cannon fodder types for a while. But sometimes you can across a fighter who has those skills and attributes that make you say “whoa” while you’re watching the 3,000th can crushing of your boxing viewing lifetime. Moses Itauma is one of those. Even against the genuine no-hopers — you know, the massive percentage of boxers in the world whose ability level would not allow them to reach the rank of “professional” in any sport but a combat sport — it wasn’t just that he was running them over, it was all these little details you can pick up. The speed, the accuracy, the sharpness, the power, the boxing skill and IQ.
If you hadn’t seen him by late 2024, and saw him torch Demsey McKean in a “step-up,” that might have been your first taste. He’s laid waste to Mike Balogun, Dillian Whyte, and Jermaine Franklin since then. These have been carefully selected opponents, but the style in which Itauma has utterly dominated or just flat blown away all of them has been significant. There hasn’t been some round where he struggled, and he never looks like he didn’t take an opponent seriously. His speed has been the biggest thing that sets him apart, but he’s more than fast, and he’s more than a powerful puncher, too. Right now, he looks like a potential future ruler of this division.
But there are tests to pass. Hrgovic (20-1, 15 KO) is the right sort of opponent to take on next. The 34-year-old Croatian is big, strong, sturdy, and an experienced fighter who comes in confident in himself. Hrgovic won bronze at the 2016 Olympics and was a gold medalist at the 2015 European Championships, so we’re talking about a very high-level amateur.
He hasn’t really delivered as a pro to the level he would have hoped, but he’s been a top 10 heavyweight for years now, too, and in a slightly weaker era for the world title scene, yeah, he could have won a world title. We’ve seen a lot of heavyweights win world titles over the last 30 years in particular who weren’t any better than Hrgovic; different strengths and weaknesses, but similar overall level. He hit the scene at a time when that was going to be harder, and it has been.
“El Animal” is capable but flawed, as I’m sure Patrick is about to get into. His best win was over Zhilei Zhang in August 2022, which was not only controversial at the time, but it was also four years ago at this point. He was stopped by Daniel Dubois in June 2024, and has since won three straight against Joe Joyce, who was pretty shopworn by then, and then David Adeleye and Dave Allen, who are domestic-level Brits.
The fights with Dubois, Joyce, Adeleye, and Allen in his last four — two in the UK, two in Riyadh — have set him up nicely as an opponent well-known by the British boxing fans, credible enough, and in line with the IBF to make this a vacant title fight. He’s going to get his chance, but he’s staring down a hell of a young talent in Itauma.
Moses vs Hrgovic: Style Matchup
by Patrick Stumberg
Moses Itauma is the goods. This isn’t a case of a genuinely gifted athlete cruising past the heavyweight division’s surfeit of Big Galoots; he’s a genuinely skilled, intelligent operator who just so happens to be blessed with blinding speed and crushing power. That said, if I had to propose the perfect opponent to force answers to my lingering questions, “big, rangy, technically sound dude that can hit” would cover most of the bases.
So much of Itauma’s game revolves around range management. He keeps his lead hand low, looking to draw out reaching jabs so he can counter. It’s an extremely effective tactic, but it’s also heavily reliant on getting the distance just right. He’s at a rare reach disadvantage against Hrgovic, meaning he’ll have to be at the top of his game if he wants to avoid getting touched up by the Croat’s jab and straight right, especially since Itauma does tend to pull straight back.
Hrgovic’s pedigree and power also make it risky for Itauma to lead with the head-high rushes he often leans on. Itauma’s feints and ability to mix levels with his punches generally do a good job of keeping opponents’ hands too busy to retaliate, but Hrgovic should have the composure to punish any particularly reckless blitzes. Itauma can’t lean on shock and awe here; the ingredients are there for a long, difficult night that shows us exactly what Itauma is made of.
At least, they would be if Hrgovic wasn’t fodder for Itauma’s right hook thanks to two major flaws, which were on full display against David Adeleye. The first is Hrgovic’s tendency to smother his own work. Despite Adeleye sporting a shorter reach, putting himself on the ropes, and all but holding up a glowing neon sign advertising his desire to chuck a counter left hook at the first opportunity, Hrgovic willingly compromised his reach advantage by crashing in and tying up.
The second concerns his left hand. He’s a little irresponsible when bringing his jab back, but more importantly, he has this bizarre habit of straightening his left arm downwards when throwing his right hand. It’s not like he’s making up for it with head movement or only doing it when his opponent’s too far away to hit back, either; he’ll do it right in his opponent’s face with his chin straight up.
Hrgovic can take a great shot, but you can’t give someone like Itauma those sorts of openings. Even if Hrgovic does find countermeasures for Itauma’s versatile jab, body work, and the other weapons at his disposal, the former’s shortcomings are just too obvious and exploitable against someone with Itauma’s composure and fight IQ.
Predictions
Scott Christ: We’ve seen super-hyped young fighters stumble many, many, many, many, many, many times in boxing history. A lot of the names are now forgotten, because they stumbled and never made it back. Some have stumbled and then gathered themselves to go on and have great careers anyway.
Itauma will eventually meet his match. Even if, in theory, his skill set continues to develop into something that is nigh unbeatable on paper, someone will come along and have him figured out and be an absolute pain in his ass. Someone who can stand up to the power and speed, nullify it all to some degree, and maybe even get into his head a little bit and trouble him that way. Even if Itauma is truly great, this happens to literally every great fighter at some point, even those who never take an L.
I don’t think it comes here. Hrgovic’s ceiling has been seen and is clear, and I don’t think he has the tools to be the one to give Itauma big fits. I would be a lot more surprised by Hrgovic having an argument for the win, when all is said and done, than I would be by Itauma blowing him away inside of the first round. Hrgovic has never showcased the best stamina, he’s got repeated flaws that just don’t seem like they’re going to be — or can be — “corrected” in his mid-30s. Even if he can extend this into the second half, will that serve him well? Moses Itauma by fifth round KO
Patrick Stumberg: is the perfect opponent for Itauma at this stage in the latter’s career. Experienced enough to keep his wits about him in the face of Itauma’s physical gifts, rangy enough to test Itauma’s mastery of distance, powerful enough to decisively punish any lapses in concentration, and durable enough to survive stray shots. He’s more than capable of giving Itauma the stiffest test of his career.
At the same time, Hrgovic’s own bad habits play right into Itauma’s hands. Itauma’s inexperience in deep waters is a concern, but Hrgovic has to survive long enough to get there and not run out of steam as he has so many times before. Quite the ask.
Though I wouldn’t be too shocked to see Hrgovic weather the early storm, Itauma’s sharp counters are just too well-suited to exploiting Hrgovic’s worst tendencies. Itauma builds an early lead before flattening Hrgovic with a shot the big man never sees coming. Moses Itauma by fourth round TKO
