Quiet as kept, FanGraphs has released their updated MLB Playoff Odds for the upcoming 2026 season. As of right now with the offseason beginning to transition into the ever-optimistic days of spring training, FanGraphs’ projection model feels like the Atlanta Braves should have very good reason to feel optimistic heading into the regular season.
While FanGraphs figures that the American League is shaping up to be a big ol’ Battle Royale between four AL East teams (Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles),
the Tigers and the Mariners, the picture in the NL figures to be a bit clearer. As of right now, while the Dodgers are the obvious favorites to not just win the National League but retain their World Series crown yet again, the projection model figures that the Braves have the best shot at dethroning the Southern California juggernaut.
FanGraphs is currently projecting that the Braves will win 92 games (I’m rounding up and will do so for the rest of the article, when necessary) and lose 71 — giving them a 47 percent chance to reclaim the NL East title, a 39 percent chance to get a bye, a 40 percent shot at a wild card berth and then an 87 percent shot at simply making the Postseason. All that culminates with FanGraphs’ model giving the Braves an 11 percent shot at winning the World Series — good for second-best odds in not just the NL but in all of baseball right now. Now granted, the Dodgers are currently standing head-and-shoulders over the field with a projected 27 percent shot at winning the World Series but still, Atlanta’s odds are nothing to sneeze at.
It also goes to show that the model appears to be very impressed with the job that the Braves have done to fortify their bench in order to withstand the losses of both Ha-Seong Kim and Sean Murphy for the initial portion of the season. It also goes to show the faith that the model has in Atlanta’s star players performing like stars going forward. ZiPS is currently projecting Ronald Acuña Jr. and Drake Baldwin to lead the way in terms of batter WAR and they also figure that Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach should serve as a pretty formidable top three for Atlanta’s rotation when it comes to pitcher WAR.
Now, as the saying goes: You can’t play the game on a spreadsheet. The Braves have had some rosy projections for a few years now and they’ve managed to come well short of those projections for the past couple of seasons. The team still has to go out there on the diamond and get the job done and they’ll of course have to deal with two very tough divisional foes in the form of the Mets (projected for 90 wins) and the Phillies (projected for 87). This certainly won’t be a cakewalk for the Braves and ultimately it’ll just come down to this team living up to the back of their respective baseball cards. We all know that this core group of players is capable of doing great things on the field — we’ve seen it over the years. Again, they’ve just got to get the job done.
Either way, the Braves once again have some high expectations heading into the upcoming season. Here’s hoping that they’ll meet those expectations so we can have ourselves another fun season around here. We’ll see what happens!
