Pourover: What lies ahead

Feb 21, 2026; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Missouri Tigers guard Anthony Robinson II (0) drives against Arkansas Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr (5) during the second half at Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas won 94-86. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images Mizzou g

Summarized by AI ⓘ

What is the story about?

Mizzou got the win they needed this week. At the start of the week they needed to find a way to go 1-1 if they wanted to be IN the NCAA Tournament versus OUT, and Mizzou got themselves back in with a win over Vandy. Finding a win at Bud Walton would have been great, but it shouldn’t be expected. Not with this Missouri team and not with this Arkansas team.

One of the reasons I talked about winning in Bud Walton Arena yesterday was because it’s hard to win there, especially when Arkansas is good. And

this Arkansas team is very good.

I thought there was a path to a win since the Hogs were locked in a double over time game against Alabama on Wednesday, and they play a short rotation. Maybe their freshmen guards would be a little tired, and it would give the Tigers the path to a difficult win. But the reality is, right now, this is the best Arkansas team against the analytics since Mizzou joined the SEC… and beyond.

KenPom.com data goes back to 1997, which post-dates the National Championship for the Razorbacks in 1994. They would reach the National Final again in 1995. Since 1997 the best finish in KP for Arkansas were back to back 18th finishes in 2021 and 2022 for Eric Musselman. Current John Calipari has them sitting at 17th in the country.

If things stay the same, this is the best Arkansas team since Nolan Richardson’s National Championship runner-up in 1995.

One of the few bracketologists to update moment by moment, and also the most famous one, is Joe Lunardi. He didn’t move the Tigers at all after the loss at Arkansas. The lesson being, it’s not expected for anyone to win on the road against a top 20 team and have it impact your seeding.

Of course, you’d like it to not be the case where you can’t really expect your team to win any road game. But there aren’t many teams this year who would be favored to win at Bud Walton.

What matters is what happens next. I think Missouri can make the tournament by simply going .500 the rest of the way. The important games for Missouri are probably the road game at Oklahoma, and the home games against Tennessee and Arkansas. I think you need to get one of those three, and win at Mississippi State, and you’re probably okay. Tennessee and Arkansas are top 30 so those are Q1 home games, and OU is 69th so that’s still a Q1 road game. MSU is sitting at 90th, so that’s a Q2 road game. That means with 4 regular season games to play, three are in Quad 1. The more wins you get in Quad 1 the better, obviously. If they want to win the all, they should. 22-9 and 12-6 in the SEC is certainly worthy of inclusion, and even a quality seed.

But we’ve seen too much of this team this season to think they’ll play with enough consistency over the last four games to win out.

But I will say if they play like they did against Arkansas, they’ll win more than they’ll lose.

Tennessee beat Vanderbilt on the road, and have won 4 straight. Their losses are to Arkansas on the road, Florida on the road, and Kentucky twice. Their road wins are Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State and now Vanderbilt.

Mississippi State is 5-9 in the conference after dropping a road game at South Carolina. They’re at Alabama, and then have Missouri next Saturday. MSU has beaten Auburn and Oklahoma at home, their other wins are at Texas, LSU and Ole Miss. So at home they’re 2-5. If they lose at Alabama they’ll be 5-10 with no chance at a post season berth.

We’ll worry about a road trip to Oklahoma and the final home game against Arkansas when we get there. But Missouri needs to go 1-1 this upcoming week to stay the course. If they can find a way to 2-0, that means a big Q1 win over Tennessee plus avoiding a bad Q2 loss on the road.

Plus a 2-0 record takes pressure off the road trip to OU. And the returning trip from the Hogs, who are the best offensive team in the league. So I don’t know, find a way to beat Tennessee. Then just win the next game.