The 3-1 Giants travel to Washington to play the 1-3 Commanders, who will receive starting quarterback Jayden Daniels back. The 2024 Rookie of the Year is returning from a dislocated left elbow. Washington is favored by three-and-a-half points, and the Over/Under is set at 43.5 points.
The Commanders are returning from London, where the Indianapolis Colts defeated them 30-13; Washington had to play rookie third-stringer Athan Kaliakmanis at quarterback after Marcus Mariota suffered a knee injury in the first
half. Washington has won the last four matchups against the Giants. New York leads the series 108-75-5.
Team statistics
(And a persepctive on the Giants’ pass rush)
The Commanders surrender the third-most points (122) and the 15th-most yards allowed (1,344). They allow the eighth-most passing yards (970) and are tied for the most passing touchdowns surrendered, with 11. Dan Quinn’s unit, coached by first-year defensive coordinator Daronte Jones, has the sixth-best run defense in the league per yard allowed; they allowed 374 yards through four games, for 4 yards per carry.
Quinn’s team has the fewest penalties accepted this year — they have only 19 penalties against them. They are third in blitz rate, with a 36.8% blitz rate and sixth in pressure percentage. The Giants have been a topic of discussion in pressure and sacks this season, since they rank last in both through four games. Here are some thoughts on that:
Defensive personnel
As for the Commanders, they’ve been pressuring opposing quarterbacks. Odafe Oweh and Darone Payne both had four pressures against Daniel Jones and the Colts. Oweh and Payne lead the team with 12 pressures, and K’Lavon Chaisson has 11. Javon Kinlaw, Charles Omenihu, and Dorance Armstrong each have six pressures, while star rookie linebacker Sonny Styles has five with a sack.
Washington has a solid front that lacks star-power names other than Daron Payne. Kinlaw and Omenihu play alongside Payne, with Tim Settle and Shy Tuttle as rotational defensive linemen.
Oweh and Chaisson are the primary edge rushers, with long-time Quinn favorite Dorance Armstrong as the third rusher. Rookie Joshua Josephs has also played 53 snaps over four games. Linebacker Frankie Luvu has four pressures on the year, but he missed Weeks 2 and 3. Luvu plays a hybrid linebacker/edge role; he returned in Week 4 against the Colts. Second-year sixth-round pick Kain Medrano, out of UCLA, has played in Luvu’s absence, and he recorded an important interception in Washington’s impressive Week 3 win over Seattle.
Sonny Styles is the fulcrum of the defense and is playing quality football.
Arvell Reese’s former teammate is a good football player that the Giants’ offense must account for on Sunday. Off-season signing Leo Chenal suffered a neck fracture in Week 3 and is out.
Washington likes to use three-safety sets. A three-safety defense against the heavier Giants’ offense could struggle against the run. Safety Percy Butler played 19 of his 32 snaps on Sunday. While Quan Martin and Jeremy Reaves played 59 and 53, respectively. Safety Nick Cross was out the last two weeks; early optimism suggests he may play on Sunday.
The cornerback position is manned by Rasul Douglas and Amik Robertson. Mike Sainristil struggled early in the season and was benched. The former second-round pick played just five snaps against the Colts. 2025 second-round pick Tre Amos is on the I.R. with a fractured fibula. Fabian Moreau played 26 snaps against the Colts. Washington’s corner room is being held down by journeymen.
The matchup
With Jameis Winston as the listed starter, the Giants are using a heavier personnel package (more than 11) at a 62% rate, with 27% of that being 22 personnel, meaning two tight ends, a running back, and Patrick Ricard at full-back. Of the 62%, only 12% is 12 personnel. The Giants are a beefy team that wants to establish the run. This will lead to more base looks from Washington, which removes a nickel and puts Tim Settle on the line of scrimmage between Daron Payne and an edge defender.
The Colts ran 11% at a high 47% rate and 12 personnel at a rate of 42%. The Giants will be a different challenge for the Commanders, but can New York effectively establish the run against Washington? The Colts ran well against Washington’s nickel looks; Jonathan Taylor averaged 4.8 yards per carry, and Seth McGowan averaged 5.2 yards per carry.
The Giants, though, have struggled to run the football. They averaged 3.1 yards per carry against the Cardinals, and the running backs averaged 3.9 yards per carry against the Titans — both wins. New York should look to keep the run defense honest with misdirections, counters, or jet sweeps, as they did in Week 3 with Darnell Mooney, which resulted in a nine-yard gain. Getting to that early, against an aggressive defense like Washington, could work for a chunk gain; or perhaps a few drives in after showing jet-motion from 12 personnel.
New York used EMPTY 13 personnel to spread the defense out and create mismatches for the No. 3 (innermost) receiver against zone coverage. New York scored two touchdowns in the red zone this way on Sunday, and it was refreshing to see the success of the strategy for the run-heavy team with a second-string quarterback who has struggled in the red zone.
The Commanders have more athletic ability at their second level than the Cardinals, though. The Giants will likely go to these looks, but it may not be as successful as it was in Week 4. Malik Nabers should remain the focal point of the passing attack, and his usage should expand across the formation.
Malachi Fields is an asset on the outside in a winnable matchup when up against Robertson, who is 5’8. Robertson starts on the right side and has been Quinn’s best cornerback, but the size difference is noteworthy. Robertson is aggressive by the line of scrimmage; New York could look for a double-move or fake screen to bait a mistake and create explosive plays off the top.
New York can look to their matchups when facing man coverage, specifically Fields, Isaiah Likely, and Malik Nabers. Far-hash throws are another thing the Giants could use to attack Quinn if the veteran coach opts for Cover-6 looks that leave the deep curl/flat vacated to the field. I would love it if the Giants leaned on Cam Skattebo a bit more in this game. Najee Harris and Skattebo essentially split time and touches until the former fumbled.
Then there’s Tyrone Tracy Jr. The Giants should keep using him in the package between the 10-25 yard line on the opponent’s side of the field. New York tried to run RB-Corner routes out of shotgun against Cover 3; it’s a look they used in the preseason with Tracy too.
Isaiah Likely’s usage should remain — keep using him in the short/intermediate parts of the field as an easy target with high-YAC upside.
Final thoughts
The Commanders are a respectable team who, much like the Giants, are bitten by the injury bug. A divisional road win is incredibly valuable. The Giants’ offense must play mistake-free football. Winston must operate with better discernment and play poised in the pocket, while the backs need to hold onto the football. It won’t be easy, but I have the Giants winning, 20-16.
