The Mariners marketing machine has been building the hype for this weekend’s festivities for months, but I’m finding it extremely difficult to get excited about a team that seemingly has no interest in actually winning their games. Getting shutout twice against the Tigers — a team that sold at the trade deadline — was a product of the same frustrating listless offense that’s plagued the team since June. The schedule in August doesn’t get any easier from here; after this series against the Rays, the best
team in the AL, the M’s embark on a nine-game road trip through New York, Houston, and Milwaukee. First, this anniversary weekend awaits. Surely, nothing bad will happen on a sold out event weekend with high expectations for the team.
The Rays have held the best record in the AL since the end of June and it really doesn’t seem like they’re going to let up. Yes, their underlying peripherals point to some regression at some point this season, they’ve also banked so many wins already they’re virtually guaranteed a playoff berth even if they come crashing back down to Earth. And again, it really doesn’t seem like they’re going to any time soon. They made some targeted improvements at the trade deadline, the pitching staff has been as solid as ever, and the top half of the lineup is carrying the offense.
With the trio of Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, and Jonathan Aranda anchoring the top of the Rays’ lineup, they went out and added Liam Hicks at the trade deadline to improve the production they’re getting from catcher and significantly lengthen the lineup. Caminero has been absolutely scorching hot since the end of June; over his last 40 games, he’s blasted 18 home runs and posted a 180 wRC+. The rest of the lineup is filled with flexible role players and platoons which force opponents into uncomfortable matchups throughout the game.
Probable Pitchers
Maybe it’s due to his lengthy injury history or simply the fact that he plays in Tampa Bay, but Drew Rasmussen is one of the more underrated starters in baseball. He’s earned his flowers the last couple of years, earning All-Star honors in both 2025 and ‘26. His foundation is a trio of fastballs that each break in a different direction, presenting a headache for batters trying to sit on any one of them. He’s added a new changeup this year and that offspeed pitch is actually running the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches. He’s also got a pair of decent breaking balls he can mix in when he really needs to keep batters off balance. Oh, and his command is impeccable, elevating his entire arsenal.
From a previous series preview:
Griffin Jax was an odd trade deadline acquisition last July. The Rays weren’t in a position to buy, but they traded Taj Bradley straight up for Jax, who was one of the best setup men in baseball at the time. Jax struggled as a reliever with the Rays and the team decided to convert him to a starter on the fly in May. It’s not the worst idea in the world; Jax has a deep repertoire that didn’t fit a traditional high-leverage reliever. Things have worked out pretty well despite the odd timing of it all. Across 18 starts and 82.2 IP, he has a 3.16 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 3.91 K/BB out of the rotation.
Jax allowed just a single run against the Mariners during that series in Tampa Bay. He covered five innings, allowed four hits and three walks, and struck out three.
From a previous series preview:
Ian Seymour started off last year in the bullpen but had a brief but successful stint as a starter to finish the season. Tampa Bay stuck him back in the bullpen to start this year and he eventually worked his way into a high-leverage role for a while. He’s been working as a starter for the past month and that might be his most successful role to date. He’s posted a matching 3.71 ERA and FIP in 11 appearances — seven traditional starts — since moving into the rotation.
Seymour was the only pitcher the Mariners were able to figure out back in July; he was battered for six runs in 3.1 innings.
The Big Picture:
The Mariners couldn’t gain any ground on the Astros this week even though they lost their series against the Blue Jays. The Rangers managed to gain a game by taking two of three against the Giants. Houston travels to San Diego this weekend while Texas hosts the Orioles. The Wild Card standings are too difficult to parse right now.
