Boy, that Wild Card round was fun.
Not so much what has happened since then.
The team with the best record in baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers, has played like it in the first two games of the San Diego Padres’ second playoff round. After earning a bye in the Wild Card round, the Brewers came out ready to take advantage of the Padres’ weaknesses. The Friars provided those weaknesses in both games, and the Brewers cashed in.
That is not to say that Milwaukee has played flawless baseball; far from it.
Mistakes have been made on both sides, but the Brewers have taken advantage, and the Padres have not.
The Friar Faithful now see their team come home with their backs against a wall. The team must win out over the next two home games and then return to Milwaukee for a decisive fifth game in order to advance.
The first two games were one-run affairs, decided by the Brewers getting timely hits and taking advantage of the Padres’ inability to do the same. There have also been some hiccups with the Padres bullpen that have not been echoed by Milwaukee.
All in all, the Brewers have been the better team. They had home field advantage and played very well.
The good and the bad
The Wild Card Series was tremendous.
Playing the Chicago Cubs, the Padres did almost everything right. Lots of hitting, great baserunning, good pitching, and a home crowd that provided energy. Not much to complain about with those two games.
Let’s start by giving some flowers to the good. Ty France has been spectacular. Hitting .467/.529/.533 over the four games, France has played excellent defense while batting cleanup on offense. He continues to hold up his end of the bargain.
Manny Machado is hitting .385/.438/.769 in the four games with one of the four home runs hit by the Padres. Xander Bogaerts is continuing his late-season surge with a .357 average and 1.081 OPS in his 14 at-bats with a home run. Starter Michael King has two starts and 12 innings pitched with a 0.75 ERA while accumulating 14 strikeouts to three walks.
The Friars hit .454 with runners in scoring position during the Wild Card round. They executed in serious situations while outscoring the Cubs 12-1.
All that changed in Milwaukee.
In the two losses, the Padres were 3-for-18 with runners in scoring position with 20 left on base. Multiple members of the team failed in this area. Machado is 0-for-2 with RISP and grounded out with the bases loaded in the first game.
But the biggest problem facing the offense so far this series is the failure of Fernando Tatis Jr. to make anything happen. For the Padres to turn this around, Tatis has to get going.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is in a slump
In his first two postseason appearances (2020 and 2024), Tatis hit .318 and .423, respectively. In the 2025 Wild Card Series against the Cubs, Tatis joined his teammates in an offensive drought, hitting just .083. During the recently completed regular season, Tatis suffered a power outage for the first two months but has come on strong over the last four months of the season. Finishing the year hitting .289 with a .828 OPS, Tatis had 25 homers and 83 RBI.
The postseason has been a different story. Over the four games and 17 at-bats, Tatis is hitting .176 with a .575 OPS. He has one home run and one RBI while striking out five times.
The stars have to star
For the Padres to rebound from the disappointment in Milwaukee, the star players have to play like stars. France and Bogaerts are performing like the standout players need to play. Tatis has not held up his part of the bargain, and Jackson Merrill has looked a lot like the Merrill of the early season. Hitting .313 in his 16 at-bats, Merrill has a .666 OPS with no extra-base hits and two RBI. He is swinging at balls and has five strikeouts to show for it.
The offense can still recover but both Tatis and Merrill have to wake up at the plate.
Pitching problems
Michael King and Nick Pivetta have delivered, limiting the opposition to two runs over their combined 15.1 innings pitched. Bradgley Rodriguez and Yuki Matsui have shined out of the bullpen with no runs allowed over seven innings combined. Jason Adam has allowed no hits over two innings pitched.
The problems have come down to the start by Robbie Ray with a 6.75 ERA and rare hiccups from the two highest-leverage and most successful bullpen arms on the team, Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller.
The Brewers hitters have worked both of them for mistakes and took advantage of a rare loss of command by Miller. Those are the difference makers in the two lost games in Milwaukee.
Giving the bullpen a break
More offense and more timely execution will lead to more runs. Those runs will give the pitchers some breathing room for mistakes or a bad day. The real issue is that the offense needs to be better for the Friars to bounce back from the disappointment of the first two games in Milwaukee.
Get Tatis and Merrill going to provide more depth offensively and the pressure will ease on the bullpen. That should be the recipe for success in the next three games.
Padres News:
- Talk on social media after the Brewers came back with a walk-off win on Game 2 was that Padres closer Mason Miller might have been tipping his pitches. He does not think so.
- Despite their 0-2 deficit, the Padres believe they can still win the NLDS.
- Ty France is arguably the Padres’ team MVP for the 2026 season, but he is still trying to prove he belongs.
- As Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball stated in the body of this post, the stars are going to have to star if the Padres have any chance to come back in the series and Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune agrees.
- The Padres know it’s win or stay home, so they are taking a direct approach to the next three games with hopes of returning to Milwaukee.
- Adrian Morejon has an additional coach to help him through times he struggles and outside of one pitch to William Contreras in Game 1 of the NLDS, it seems to work.
- Walker Buehler returns to NLDS roster for San Diego after paternity leave.
Baseball News:
- The Tampa Bay Rays scored four runs in the fifth inning en route to a win over the New York Yankees and a 2-0 series lead.
- The Chicago White Sox return home with a chance to win the series after winning both road games against the Cleveland Guardians.
