Back in March, if someone had said that the first Orioles-Rays series of 2026 would pit a 30-15 team against a 21-26 one, would you have correctly matched each team to its record?
In most preseason prognostications of the AL East, pundits projected a tough, four-team race for the division title — and the Rays as the near-consensus last-place club. Tampa Bay just wasn’t expected to have the firepower to keep up with the big boys of the division. Most picked even the Orioles to finish ahead of them,
a prediction that looks laughable now.
The Rays have blown away all projections with a .667 winning percentage and the American League’s best record. It’s a scrappy, selfless squad that has gutted out a 9-1 record in one-run games. And their return to Tropicana Field has been an enormous success. After Hurricane Milton destroyed the dome’s roof in 2024, forcing the Rays to play all their 2025 home games at the Steinbrenner Field spring training ballpark, they’ve had a very happy homecoming in 2026. The Rays are a league-best 16-5 at home, and recently won 11 consecutive games at Tropicana.
As usual, the key to the Rays’ success has been a stellar pitching staff. Their starting rotation’s 2.93 ERA is the best in baseball, and in typical Rays fashion, they’ve achieved it thanks to some unlikely sources. They signed 35-year-old journeyman Nick Martinez — career ERA of 4.16 — and somehow transformed him into one of the best pitchers in the game. Through nine starts, Martinez has a stupendous 1.51 ERA and 274 ERA+ despite just a 5.9 K/9 rate. Oh, sure, but when the Orioles sign some old journeyman pitcher, he immediately falls apart. It’s just the latest example of the Rays’ pitching coaches being very, very good at what they do. Or maybe it’s some kind of devil magic. But every year, the Rays churn out great pitchers, whether by developing them in their own farm system or by finding free-agent bargains.
The Rays’ bullpen is led by a familiar face, former Oriole Bryan Baker, who has stepped up as the team’s closer after Pete Fairbanks left in free agency. Baker’s 11 saves are the second-most in the American League. I supported the Orioles’ trade of Baker to the Rays last July, garnering the Birds a high draft pick that they used on Slater de Brun, but I must admit that the O’s bullpen could use a guy like Baker right now. (And they ended up trading de Brun back to the Rays anyway.) Look for the always demonstrative Baker to preen and yell and fist-pump if he gets a save in this series, which was endearing when he did it for the Orioles but less so when he does it against them.
On offense, the Rays could hardly be more different from the Orioles. They barely hit homers — just 36 this year — but they lead the AL in batting average (.258) and are second in OBP (.330). Most notably, they have more than 100 fewer strikeouts than the Birds (317 to 426). The Rays are a team that puts the ball in play, and it’s been working for them. They wreak havoc once they’re on the bases as well, with 50 steals, more than twice as many as the Orioles (21). Even without a lineup full of fearsome sluggers, the Rays have a lot of ways to put runs on the board.
That’s not to say they don’t have any powerful bats. The Rays’ lineup features a productive trio of Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, and Yandy Díaz, who have combined for 25 dingers, more than two-thirds of the team’s total. Aranda leads the AL with 34 RBIs, while Caminero, coming off a 45-homer, 110-RBI season, already has 11 dingers this year. Oh, and he’s just 22 years old. The Rays acquired Caminero as a prospect from Cleveland for Tobias Myers, whom the Orioles had traded to them for Tim Beckham. Pretty good sequence of trades from the Rays right there.
Not everything is clicking for the Rays’ offense, though, and unfortunately the biggest albatross has been Cedric Mullins. The longtime Orioles fan favorite, who signed a one-year, $7 million deal with Tampa Bay in December, has the second-worst OPS (.524) of any qualified AL hitter. He has played a solid center field, which has kept him in the lineup more often than not, but the Rays might need to move on if he doesn’t start hitting. I will never root against Cedric, so I hope he gets 12 hits in this series as long as the O’s win all three games. Somehow I don’t think either of those things will happen.
Game 1: Monday, 6:40 PM, MASN
LHP Trevor Rogers (2-4, 5.77) vs. LHP Shane McClanahan (4-2, 2.27)
There was a time when seeing Trevor Rogers on the mound would bring a smile to Orioles fans’ faces. That time, alas, appears to have passed. The southpaw, who entered the season as the Orioles’ ace, has regressed terribly in 2026, and he coughed up six runs in four innings to the Yankees after coming off the injured list last week. After starting the season with three straight quality starts, Rogers has given up 17 earned runs in his last four outings (10.57 ERA). Rogers’ four-seamer, which last year held batters to a .158 average and .252 SLG, has been rocked for a .296/.537 mark this season. If he doesn’t get his go-to pitch figured out soon, it could be a long year for the lefty.
The battle of southpaws is tilted severely in the Rays’ favor with McClanahan, the Baltimore-born 29-year-old who’s the early favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. McClanahan was a two-time All-Star by just his third major league season, but then missed two entire campaigns after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023 and another surgery to address a nerve issue in his left tricep in 2025.
McClanahan finally returned to the mound this year and looks like he never left. He’s back to his vintage, ace-like self, currently carrying a 21.2-inning scoreless streak that spans his last four outings. The Orioles can’t even hit against bad left-handed starters. What chance do they have against McClanahan? But I guess we’ll watch anyway, because we’re gluttons for punishment.
Game 2: Tuesday, 6:40 PM, MASN
RHP Kyle Bradish (2-5, 4.29) vs. RHP Griffin Jax (1-2, 3.91)
Is Kyle Bradish so back? Perhaps it’s too soon to say. But his last two outings have been the best he’s looked all year, reminiscent of his dominant 2023 performance. Against the Athletics he racked up 10 strikeouts in seven strong innings, and he followed it up with six scoreless versus the Yankees last week. With Rogers having gone bust, it’s more important than ever for Bradish to carry the O’s rotation. However, he has a nemesis on the Rays in Yandy Díaz, whose eight career hits are tied for the most that Bradish has allowed to any hitter. Taylor Walls, on the other hand, is 0-for-10 lifetime against the righty.
Jax had been exclusively a reliever for nearly four full seasons before the Rays began converting him to the rotation a few weeks ago. They acquired the 31-year-old from Minnesota for Taj Bradley at last year’s trade deadline. He has gradually stretched out in his last four starts, first working 2.1 innings, then 2.2, then 4.0, then 5.0. Three of those outings have been scoreless. His peripheral stats, though, indicate trouble. Jax is allowing nearly 1.5 baserunners per inning, thanks in large part to a 5.5 BB/9 rate, so the O’s offense needs to be patient and force him to find the strike zone.
Game 3: Wednesday, 1:10 PM, MASN
RHP Shane Baz (1-5, 5.26) vs. TBD
Shane Baz Revenge Game incoming! For the first time, Baz will pitch against the only team he’d ever played for until this season. The righty went 17-17 with a 4.25 ERA in parts of four seasons for Tampa Bay. The O’s gave up a hefty haul to acquire Baz in December, including three prospects who now rank among the Rays’ top 12 prospects on MLB Pipeline: Michael Forret (#8), Slater de Brun (#10), and Caden Bodine (#12).
Mike Elias and the Orioles seemed convinced they could unlock something in Baz that the Rays couldn’t, which in itself seems like a misguided proposition (see above about the Rays’ devil magic with pitchers). The O’s were banking on the fact that Baz’s 4.87 ERA last year was artificially inflated by his struggles at Steinbrenner Field (5.90 ERA in 16 starts). But so far with the Orioles, Baz is having his worst season yet, with a career-worst 1.519 WHIP and 9.8 H/9. On the plus side, he’s coming off of his best outing as an Oriole (seven innings, three runs against a good Nationals offense), and he’s pitching in his most familiar ballpark, Tropicana Field, where he has a 2.72 ERA in 10 career starts.
How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? I’d settle for the O’s stealing one game to keep them afloat heading into their 10-game homestand. Let us know your predictions in the comments.
