When the Dallas Mavericks concluded their 2025-2026 campaign — one of the worst seasons in franchise history with a 26-56 record — all eyes turned to the NBA draft. Fans are hoping the team can notch a top pick like they did last season when their 1.9% chance to get the No. 1 pick turned into reality in May.
At 3 p.m. E.T. on Sunday, they’ll have a chance, and a better one than they had last year, to repeat history.
Dallas has the 8th-best odds of claiming the No. 1 overall pick, coming in at 6.7%.
The Mavericks have a 29.0% chance t0 move into the top four picks. Mavericks legend Rolando Blackman and co-general manager Matt Ricardi will be representing the team in Chicago for the lottery. The duo also represented the Mavericks at last year’s draft lottery.
It is most likely the team will remain at No. 8 (32.9%) or drop one slot to No. 9 (31.1%), and there is a slim chance the team drops to No. 10 (6.6%). If the team gets incredibly unlucky, there is a 0.4% chance they could fall to 11, and a less than 0.1% chance they fall to 12.
Cut all the math out of it and it comes to this — if you flip a coin twice and it comes up heads both teams, that’s about the likelihood of Dallas jumping to the top 4.
All 14 non-playoff teams are entered into the lottery every year to decide which teams get the top four picks. After the lottery, the rest of the first round goes in reverse order of record. The worst three teams each get a 14% chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick and the odds go down from there.
This system has been ever evolving since its inception in 1985 and will likely change next season, as ESPN’s Shams Charania recently reported on changes to the draft lottery odds to disincentivize tanking in the league.
This may be the last year the lottery looks like this. So take a second, dip away from your family, mothers, spouses, and children on Mother’s Day, and gather round the television to watch the NBA’s deputy commissioner, Mark Tatum, announce the results of the 2026 Draft Lottery at 3 p.m. E.T., since apparently there was no other time they could’ve scheduled this.
