Last year, we crunched the numbers and tried to predict the overs and unders for the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense. And to say that we were off in our predictions would be putting it mildly.
For instance, in 2025, we were bullish on the pass rush and set the team’s sack total at 49, despite the Chiefs coming off a 2024 season in which they generated only 39 sacks. Instead of taking the big step forward we expected, Kansas City’s pass rush took another step back, securing just 33 sacks in 2025.
In fact,
the only line the Chiefs exceeded expectations on was the metric that actually matters at the end of the day — points allowed per game. We set the line at 20 points per game, and the Chiefs came in under at 19.3.
Last season, we did our best to ground our predictions in historical data, but the outcome was less than accurate, so this year I’m following a stronger metric: my gut and the team’s vibe.
So let’s dive in and see where we land on how the defense will do this year.
Sacks
Chris Jones led the team in sacks in 2025 with seven. That pretty much tells you everything you need to know about this team’s pass rush last year. Modern wisdom would say that, with the added investment in the pass rush in the draft (selecting defensive linemen in both the first and second rounds), coupled with the extremely low 2025 number, it will be hard for the Chiefs to regress any further than the team did last year.
But still, nothing suggests a big jump in 2026. It’s still clear how rookie edge rusher R Mason Thomas fits in with what the Chiefs want to do on defense, and defensive tackle Peter Woods needs to show more consistency to be more than an inconsistent player who flashes and then disappears for long stretches of time.
Chris Jones needs more help on the interior, and George Karlaftis needs someone who can set the edge opposite of him and keep containment so he doesn’t have to try to chase the QB all over the yard.
So the biggest wildcards heading into this season for me are edge rusher Ashton Gillotte and defensive tackle Omarr Norman Lot. If each of these guys can give you even four to five sacks this year, then you have a chance at getting enough on the whole to see a bump of 10 sacks in the numbers this season.
And call me a homer, but I think it could happen.
Projected sacks: 43
My take: Over
The Chiefs haven’t topped 40 sacks in a season since 2023. That’s a bad stat. And although I don’t think this team will suddenly lead the league in sacks, it’s hard to invest as much as the Chiefs have in the pass rush and not see at least some results.
Interceptions
Former Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie may have been an All-Pro, but he was far from a turnover machine. On the contrary, in his final season at California, cornerback Nohl Williams led all of college football in interceptions. Now entering his second season in the league, the Chiefs will be counting on him to step up and give them similar numbers at the pro level.
The Chiefs also traded up in the first round to select cornerback Mansoor Delane with the sixth overall selection. Delane profiles as a set-and-forget lockdown corner. The Chiefs also selected cornerback Jadon Canady in the fourth round to fortify their secondary, and brought in safety Alohi Gilman via free agency. All things considered, I feel like the Chiefs have to top their 2025 number of 10 interceptions.
Projected interceptions: 12
My take: Over
I think the Chiefs’ recent investment in the secondary pays dividends this year, as we see the birth of Kansas City’s “no-fly zone.” I think we will remember this as one of the Chiefs better secondaries in years to come.
Forced fumbles
Forced Fumbles are probably one of the most overlooked skills in football, and while they are completely preventable, learning how to punch the ball out or strip the ball from the quarterback is a skill that is more than just dumb luck.
The Chiefs weren’t great at this in 2025, forcing only seven fumbles over the course of the year. And without evidence that Kansas City has made this a point of emphasis this season, it’s hard to predict the unit will do any better than last season.
Projected forced fumbles: 7
My take: Push
Of all the predictions so far, this is the one that has the greatest ability to be flipped completely. This team could easily have five more forced fumbles, and it wouldn’t surprise me.
Defensive touchdowns
This one feels like a flip of the coin. There is a lot that has to go right for a team to score a defensive touchdown. It’s probably why the Chiefs didn’t have any in 2025.
Projected defensive touchdowns: 1
My take: Push
You never know when it’s going to happen, or if it’s going to happen, but I feel like it has to happen at least once this season.
Points allowed per game
In 2025, the Chiefs held opponents to 19.3 points per game, despite their sack and interception numbers regressing. It feels like 2026 is the tipping point. The 2025 season was fluky in many ways, and how the team performs in 2026 will set the tone for the defense over the next couple of years.
Projected points allowed per game: 19.3
My take: Under
If it’s one thing the Chiefs have been good at the last couple of years, it’s keeping opposing teams out of their endzone. I’m taking the under.
