Paul Toboni had an interesting first draft for the Washington Nationals. Despite the obvious need for pitching in the organization, Toboni spent his first three picks on position players. While Chris Hacopian and Chase Brunson are better prospects as we sit today, I actually think third round pick Luke Williams has the most upside of the trio.
Williams, a high school shortstop out of Pennsylvania, is your classic over slot selection. He has absolutely insane tools, but still needs to polish his game.
This is the type of profile that might take a while to develop, but if he hits, the ceiling is huge. Williams is an elite runner with an elite arm, giving him a lot of potential outcomes.
Even though Williams played shortstop in high school, many scouts think he will end up in center field. From what I have seen and read about him, that would be my projection as well. Williams is a freaky athlete who is described as a high intensity player. That sounds like a center fielder to me. In the outfield, Williams can make the most of his motor and twitch.
While Williams has the highest upside in the Nats 2026 draft class, he is also one of the riskier picks. There are some questions about his hit tool and approach. Williams also has some mystery surrounding him because he has not seen a ton of high end high school pitching. In the summer before his senior year, when the showcase circuit was happening, Williams was on the sidelines with an ankle injury.
Scouts really value those events because it shows them how these hitters perform against the best competition. We did not see Williams at those events, so there is uncertainty around his hit tool. That uncertainty is not necessarily a bad thing though. There is a chance that Williams could have performed very well in the summer and went much higher than he did.
One thing that is not uncertain is Williams’ dynamism. Despite being listed at 6’0 180 pounds, Williams has elite bat speed. That is very rare for a small player. When you look at the top swing speeds in MLB, you see bigger bodies such as Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker.
His bat speed gives him a lot of power upside. Williams did not play any official games after he was drafted, but he did compete in some exhibitions down in West Palm Beach. We saw a couple clips of Williams going deep in those games.
For Williams, the upside is easy to see. He has elite speed, a cannon for an arm and real power upside. However, he enters next season with a wide range of outcomes. There is a world where he struggles to hit early in his career, but there is also a chance that he bursts on to the scene and finds his way into top 100 prospect discussions.
Honestly, I do not think it will take long to find out how advanced Williams really is. One thing I will be watching is how much he whiffs and chases against Low-A pitching. Those are some areas of concern, but if he comes out looking better than expected, the sky is the limit.
With Luke Williams, the Nats took an elite athlete and are hoping to develop him into an elite baseball player. They have tried this approach in the past, without much success. However, this is a new regime that has proven their ability to develop hitters. Paul Toboni also took two relatively safe college bats ahead of Williams to balance upside with security.
There is no guarantee that Williams works out, but I like the swing in the third round. It was an appropriate range to shoot for upside. This is a kid who lights up every athletic testing category you can think of and reportedly has a real passion for the game. Luke Williams could be a slow burn, but the juice very well could be more than worth the squeeze.
