We’ve given you plenty of Brewers preview content this week (and all month), but let’s take a more detailed (but still Brewers-fan-centric) look around the rest of the division and see what the teams who are trying to knock the Brewers off their perch are bringing to the table this year.
We’ll go in alphabetical order (which just so happens to be the order in which I think they’ll finish), with a rating out of 10 on the threat level they pose to the Brewers this year, as determined by your humble
author, who still thinks Milwaukee should be regarded as the favorite.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are viewed by essentially every major media outlet as the favorite in the National League Central. The headline additions for the Cubs are third baseman Alex Bregman (who signed a five-year, $175 million deal) and starting pitcher Edward Cabrera, who came over from the Marlins for a package headlined by top prospect Owen Caissie. The Cubs also added several bullpen pieces, most notably Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton, and Hoby Milner. (They also signed Shelby Miller, but he may not pitch at all in 2025 after he needed Tommy John surgery after a late-season injury with the Brewers last year.)
On the way out, the big Cubs loss was Kyle Tucker, who of course signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. But they also watched several bullpen arms go, including a couple who were quite good for them in 2025 (Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz).
Chicago has been widely praised for the signing of Bregman, who is viewed as one of the league’s best clubhouse presences, plays good defense, and is a solidly above average hitter. Bregman, though, turns 32 in a few days, and played only 114 games in 2025, so that’s something to keep an eye on. And while Bregman has been a good player over the last six years, he hasn’t been a legitimate star since 2018 and 2019, when he had back-to-back top-five MVP finishes.
Bregman’s signing should help, but we need to look at it through the prism of who he “replaced,” Tucker. Even in what was viewed as a “down season” at times, Tucker put up a 143 OPS+ in 2025, made the All-Star Game, and earned 4.6 WAR in 135 games, a better rate than the 3.5 WAR Bregman earned in 114 games. Tucker is also three years younger than Bregman, and has been unequivocally better over the past five seasons.
Bregman is a good pickup for the Cubs, but he’s a step down from Tucker, and I don’t know why this isn’t being more widely considered.
As for Cabrera, he was quite good in 2025 (3.53 ERA/3.83 FIP, 3.13 K:BB in 137 2/3 innings) in his age-27 season. The question, really, is whether that’s who Cabrera is now or whether the significant control problems that plagued him from 2022-2024 will rear their head. Prior to 2025, Cabrera had made 63 career appearances (61 starts) and thrown 294 innings and walked over five batters per nine. That’s a huge number over such a large sample; for instance, the highest BB/9 among qualified starting pitchers in 2025 was Gavin Williams at 4.5. Jacob Misiorowski only walked 4.2 batters per nine in the big leagues in 2025.
Of course, the fact that Cabrera substantially lowered that rate over a large sample (last year was the first time he’d thrown more than 100 innings in his career) is encouraging. Cabrera does have good stuff—he sits around 97 with his fastball and had some of the better offspeed stuff in the league last year, according to Statcast. But if I were a Cubs fan, I’d be nervous watching his walks, at least early in the season.
Chicago should also be helped this season by the return of Justin Steele, who had surgery on his UCL about a year ago. He’s pitching again, but the Cubs just placed him on the 60-day IL, so he obviously won’t be back for at least a couple of months. Steele was one of the league’s best pitchers in 2023 and more-or-less replicated those results (although in a smaller sample) in 2024, but made only four starts before his injury in 2025.
The infield is good: alongside Bregman, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner (my pick for the league’s best second baseman last season, and who the Cubs just signed to a lucrative extension) are both excellent defensive players who can hit a bit, and Michael Busch, who was the hitter in Chicago’s lineup who scared me the most in last year’s NLDS, looks to be the real deal, at least as long as he’s facing right-handed pitching.
Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the outfield, but we’ll have to see how he adjusts this season. After exploding out of the gate and making himself a Bonafide MVP candidate by mid summer, PCA struggled badly in the second half of the season and finished with a .287 on-base percentage. There are real, nearly existential questions about his plate discipline, but he did hit 31 homers and steal 35 bases last year, and if nothing else he’s a dynamic player who provides true A+ defense in center field. Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Matt Shaw are all players who should help, while Dylan Carlson and Michael Conforto are looking to get their careers back on track.
Threat level: 7/10. The Cubs won 92 games in 2025, and went five with the Brewers in the NLDS. They’re well-funded. They have some star power, and maybe the best everyday infield in the game (though I wouldn’t want to be the one writing the checks in 2029, when Bregman and Swanson will be 35 and Hoerner 32 and they’ll make something like $75m combined). But I still see problems with the pitching staff, and while the narrative out there seems to be that Chicago greatly improved this offseason, I don’t really see it. They should win 90-ish games again and they certainly could usurp the Brewers at the top of the division, but I think the universal consensus that they will is a little bizarre, frankly.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds won 83 games in 2025 and snuck into the playoffs, where they lost two lopsided Wild Card games to the Dodgers. They’re a team with some intriguing talent, but the health of their pitching staff is in question at the beginning of the season and that’s a problem.
The biggest issue is Hunter Greene, their best pitcher, who made only 19 starts last year but pitched to a 2.76 ERA (166 ERA+) and struck out 11 batters per nine while walking only 2.2. Greene is one of the hardest throwers in the league—he averaged 99.5 on his fastball last year, higher even than Misiorowski—and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball while on the mound over the last two seasons. But he needed surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow earlier this month, and isn’t expected back in the big leagues until July, and of course any sort of elbow injury for a guy who throws in triple digits is alarming. The Reds probably need Greene in order to be good enough to make the postseason, and I’m not sure they’re going to get enough of him.
Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, and Chase Burns round out what is hypothetically one of the best five-man rotations anywhere in baseball. Abbott had a 2.87 ERA in over 165 innings last season, and while there are some concerns that he’s outperforming his peripherals, he’d still be a well above-average pitcher even if his ERA ticked back closer to his FIP.
Lodolo has shown a lot of promise, but he’s also struggled at times to stay on the mound. He made only 28 starts between 2023 and 2024, and while he did appear in 29 games last season, he missed some time in August. He’s dealing with a blister that landed him on the IL to start this season, which isn’t exactly what you want.
Singer doesn’t bring many durability concerns; he’s topped 125 innings in each of his five full seasons and hasn’t thrown less than 153 since 2021. Singer isn’t going to be a star but he’s as reliable an innings eater as you’re likely to find in 2026. Burns is electric, and debuted to much fanfare last season, when in 43 1/3 innings he struck out 67 batters. He was a top-25 overall prospect prior to last season, and figures to be one of the most exciting young pitchers in the league.
Speaking of exciting, on the other side of the ball the Reds boast one of the most dynamic players in baseball, Elly De La Cruz. Over his first three seasons, things have been kind of all over the place, as you’d expect for a player with so much raw talent in his early 20s—for instance, in 2024 he stole a league-leading 67 bases and hit 36 doubles, 10 triples, and 25 homers, but also struck out a league-leading 218 times. His offensive game took a slight step back in 2025. But he’s still very young—he just turned 24 in January—and Reds fans have every reason to believe that this athletic freak with real power and good defensive tools (he’s rated as not bad, but not great at shortstop so far) will be a star for years to come. Heck, Keith Law even picked him for NL MVP.
There’s also a prime bounceback candidate in Matt McLain, a new (old) guy with potential for 50 homers in Eugenio Suárez, and a big-time prospect in Sal Stewart. Noelvi Marte occasionally looks like a star, though a steroid suspension threw a pretty big wrench in his career. TJ Friedl is pretty good. But this isn’t an overwhelming lineup unless a lot of things go right.
Threat level: 5/10. There are some interesting pieces here, and the rotation, at full health, is loaded. But will we ever get that rotation at full health? That remains to be seen, and while I like some parts of this lineup I’m not thrilled about others. I’ve also got questions about the bullpen. The skeleton of a good team is here, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to put it together this year.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are a trendy pick to improve greatly, and I saw them in multiple “bold predictions” columns and segments for “will make the playoffs in 2026.” Let’s even give them the benefit of the doubt and ignore (at least, mostly) the first game of the season, in which Paul Skenes didn’t even make it out of the first inning.
Yes, they have Skenes, and his dud of a start notwithstanding (Skenes was charged with five runs but should’ve gotten out of the first with only a run in; his center fielder, Oneil Cruz, made two awful plays in a row that cost the team at least three runs) he might be the best pitcher in baseball, and is certainly the best pitcher in the National League.
My big question here is: how far does one starting pitcher get you in an era where starting pitchers rarely throw even 200 innings?
That question is kind of central to the Pittsburgh Pirates problem. Their offense should be better this year, but that’s a low bar—they were dead last in 2025, 60 runs behind the third-worst Cleveland Guardians. Their offense in 2025 wasn’t just bad, it was atrocious. So what’d they do to address it? They traded for Brandon Lowe (who homered twice off Freddy Peralta on Opening Day), which should help a bit, and they signed Ryan O’Hearn, who had a good 2025 season, and they also signed Marcell Ozuna, who can still hit, I think.
There are a couple of problems here, though. First, none of those guys is at a stage where you’d expect them to get any better. In July, O’Hearn will turn 33 and Lowe will turn 32. Ozuna is 35, and while he was still an above-average hitter in 2025, he took a pretty major step back from the previous two seasons. The other issue here is defense. Lowe played second base today, while O’Hearn was in right field and Ozuna played the only position he can play: designated hitter. Lowe was one of the worst defensive second basemen in baseball last year, while O’Hearn has kind of mixed defensive numbers. But Pittsburgh is also going with Cruz in center—which, if early returns are any indication, is not going to go well—and while Ke’Bryan Hayes wasn’t helping their league-worst offense, he was one of the best defensive players in the league (he was traded to Cincinnati at least year’s trade deadline). Pittsburgh ranked a healthy ninth in defense in 2025. Their offense should be better in 2026, but they might give most of those runs back on the other side of the ball.
Might Konnor Griffin, the game’s top prospect, solve a lot of these issues? Yes, it’s certainly possible. As soon as the Pirates are certain they’ll get that extra year of service, I’d expect to see Griffin in the majors, and he’ll be in instant mega-upgrade over Jared Triolo at short. Griffin can handle himself defensively and has major offensive upside. He could be a star even this year.
But that’s one guy. This lineup still sent out Triolo, Spencer Horwitz, Nick Gonzales, and Henry Davis on Opening Day, not to mention the boom-or-bust Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, who despite his escapades against the Brewers, was a below-league-average hitter in 2025 (and who is also now on the wrong side of 30). In the rotation, there is some promise, but a lot of that is tied up in Bubba Chandler, who has only 31 major league innings, and Jared Jones, who can’t stay healthy (and is on the 60-day IL to start the season, meaning a late-May debut at the earliest). The bullpen looks like a weakness.
Threat level: 2/10. I don’t see it. The Angels had Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout and couldn’t make the playoffs. I don’t see the Pirates doing it with Skenes and Griffin.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are doing a full rebuild for the first time I can ever really remember. They haven’t lost less than 70 games in a full, 162-game season since 1981. 1981! They didn’t even have Ozzie Smith yet in 1981. (The Cardinals did go 53-61 in 1994 and 62-81 in 1995, but those weren’t quite full seasons due to the strike.)
I’d say that streak is certainly in jeopardy this year. St. Louis traded Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray to the Red Sox, Nolan Arenado to the Diamondbacks, and Brendan Donovan to the Mariners. Donovan and Contreras were, by WAR, the Cards’ two best players last year. Gray was their best starter. Arenado had a rough, injury-plagued season, but he’s still Nolan Arenado.
The Cardinals are not trying to hide that they aren’t really trying to compete this year. John Mozeliak, who’d been at the helm of the front office since 2007, stepped down at the end of his contract after last season and was replaced by Chaim Bloom. The new leadership clearly demonstrated that they weren’t attached to any of the team’s veteran players, nor to winning, for that matter. Strange, for this team.
There are some interesting pieces. JJ Wetherholt is one of the league’s top prospects, and hit a homer in his major-league debut on Thursday. He could win Rookie of the Year. Masyn Winn is a defensive wizard. Victor Scott II is very fast. Lars Nootbaar has an interesting Statcast page. Iván Herrera is a good player.
But guys like these are interesting pieces, not foundational ones, at least not at this point in their career. The pitching staff might be a disaster. There’s not much else to it. I know I said in our division predictions the other day that I thought they’d win 71 games… but I don’t think they’re going to do that, actually.
Threat level: 0/10. It’s hard to ignore what 37 years of life on this Earth have told me about Cardinals Devil Magic, but they’re gonna be bad.
