First, here’s why I’m NOT worried about Clemson Without A Lake:
1. The Georgia Bulldogs are 7th in the country in tackles for loss allowed. The Auburn Tigers are 124th in team tackles for loss. With the holes created by the offensive line in Tuscaloosa, we might be seeing a big rushing day for our ‘Dawgs. Add in that they have suspended their best sack and pressure guy, Xavier Atkins, and the ingredients for success are there.
2. Georgia has steadily gotten better in 3rd down performance. From 39%
in 2024 to 44% last season, and now up to 55% in 2026. And that includes facing some stout defenses in Oklahoma and Alabama. This is an area the Auburn defense is pretty good at, only allowing opponents 32% conversions.
But you don’t need to worry about this if you never get to 3rd down. Gunner Stockton is over 78% throwing on 1st down with 10 scores. Keep doing that and you can eliminate problems that don’t exist.
3. This version of the Junkyard ‘Dawg Defense is somehow ranked 110th in Red Zone Defense. This is a little misleading, because Georgia is tied for first in the SEC with allowing the fewest red zone attempts.
And Auburn is only behind the putrid Oklahoma offense in fewest red zone trips in the SEC. And Macondawg already told you they are last in red zone success. So if you never let the Tigers get to the red zone, you can eliminate another problem that doesn’t exist, eh?
Now forgive me, as I was weaned at the nipple of Larry Munson’s scratch so here’s what does worry me about hosting this basketball school:
1. Regression to the mean goes both ways. Putting the ball on the ground 4 times and recovering all of them is, to say the least, fortuitous. You can’t expect those bounces from an oblong pigskin to be quite so favorable.
And Georgia has won 9 in a row in this series of the South’s Oldest Rivalry. No team has ever won 10 in a row. UGA had a 9 game win streak when the teams met in Columbus in 1932, and it did not go our way. Now you’ve got a bruised and battered Bulldog team, only 7 days from a tough and physical Alabama team. And Auburn is well rested from an off week, and I’m sure plenty of time to watch tape and scheme something special.
But putting the ball on the ground four times and recovering all of them involves some luck. And the lady who is luck is fickle and quick to change. The last thing the Bulldogs need is to get sloppy with the ball, give free possessions to Auburn, and turn what is a 20+ point spread into a tight ballgame.
2. Too much time on our hands. Georgia is 8th in the SEC and 56th nationally in time of possession. That is mostly due to being more explosive on offense and scoring quickly. And several games where our backups were running the offense without a ton of success, and our backups were running the defense allowing the opponent to sustain more drives. But Auburn is…. Worse.
They rank 133rd nationally (15th in the SEC) in TOP. They have punted 20 times, but only forced 21 punts by opponents (UGA has punted 16 times, but forced 39 boots from the other team). They’re also kinda crap in turnover margin. Whatever will Mike Bobo do with all these offensive possessions?
3 . Just get Byrum Brown. If, like we suspect, Bulldog DC Glenn Schumann is tasked with trying to take away the one thing the opponent does well, then that is the current signal caller on the Plains.
Brown is obviously the leading passer, and he takes to the air about 32 times a game which is a fair amount. So that’s who the pass rush should focus on, right? A wrinkle is that Brown is also the leading Tiger rusher, with 16 attempts a game (about twice as many as #2) and 4 rushing scores. He drops back and either throws it, scrambles, or calls his own number. Whatever the case, that is who we should be worrying about.
Call me crazy, just don’t call me late for dinner. Let us know in the comments what you’re feeling about Kirby Smart facing his 4th different Auburn head coach. And as always…
GO ‘DAWGS!!!
