Next up in this year’s series forecasting the Minnesota Vikings’ NFC North rival seasons is the Detroit Lions. Once again, we’ll look at coaching and roster changes this offseason, how last season unfolded and any luck and injury factors that affected their results, along with a comparison of how this year’s strength of schedule compares to last season, and a prediction for the Lions win total this season.
You can find the Chicago Bears forecast here.
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions finished a disappointing last
in the NFC North last season, tied with the Vikings with a 9-8 record but the Vikings having swept them in the season series. The Packers swept them too but the Lions swept the Bears, finishing 2-4 in the division. It was a disappointing finish for the Lions because despite losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, the Lions still maintained a top five offense. Having said that, the Lions scored 83 fewer points than 2024. The Lions replaced Ben Johnson with John Morton, who was relieved of play-calling duties mid-way through the season and was let go at the end of the season.
At the same time, the Lions defense went from 7th in points allowed in 2024 to 22nd last season. Overall, the Lions went from leading the league in point differential at +222 in 2024 to +68 in 2025- which was still best in the division. All of the latter came in blowouts of the Bears, Browns, and Commanders. But the Lions struggled more against quality opponents. Still, they were 8-5 with four games to play but lost two close games to the Rams and Steelers before falling 23-10 to the Max Brosmer-led Vikings which ended their playoff hopes.
A big reason for the Lions disappointing season was due to injuries. They were once again hit hard- especially defensively- with injuries. We’ll get into that more later but there was a six-game stretch late in the season where they were giving up an average of 30 points per game. The offense wasn’t as productive in part because of the change in coordinators, but primarily because the offensive line was not the dominant one of 2024. Kevin Zietler and Frank Ragnow- both top performers in 2024- were replaced with 2024 weak-link Graham Glascow at center and rookie Tate Ratledge at right guard. Christian Mahagony took over at left guard and disappointed. And left tackle Taylor Decker played injured most of the season. All that led to more pressure on Jared Goff, who has the largest performance differential between having a clean pocket and when pressured.
Bottom line, each unit for the Lions regressed from 2024 whether due to injury, roster or coaching downgrades.
Offseason Changes
The Lions replaced John Morton this offseason with Drew Petzing, who was the offensive coordinator for the Cardinals the last three seasons. He has more of a short passing, under center, play-action, balanced pass/run game approach, although last season the Cardinals led the league in pass percentage- likely a product of game situation and injuries to running backs. He spent several seasons with the Vikings before following Kevin Stefanski to Cleveland. Apparently head coach Dan Campbell wanted someone outside the organization to help bring a new perspective to the offense. Petzing had a near top-12 offense in Arizona in 2024 when his key players- including Kyler Murray- were healthy. He seems a pretty good fit for the Lions personnel offensively and what they like to do.
Other than Petzing, the Lions have continuity in head coach Dan Campbell (who called plays the second half of last season) and defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard who is entering his second season as defensive coordinator.
In terms of the Lions’ offensive roster, they are continuing to try to rebuild their offensive line. They let Taylor Decker and Graham Glasgow go this offseason and are moving All-Pro tackle Penei Sewell from right to left tackle. They acquired center Cade Mays in free agency but he is expected to miss the first half of the season with a wrist injury. Juice Scruggs, who they acquired as part of a trade, will play center until Mays is ready. Both are significant downgrades from Frank Ragnow, who played center in 2024, and are more in-line with Graham Glasgow last season, Mays grading a bit better in pass protection. Tate Ratledge will return at right guard while Christian Mahagony, who struggled last season, will likely be the starter at left guard. The Lions also drafted Blake Miller with their first-round pick, and he is likely to start at right tackle. Overall, this isn’t likely to be the dominant line the Lions had in 2024, and it may not be much improved from last season.
The Lions are also promoting wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa after moving on from Kalif Raymond. TeSlaa has shown flashes but not a clear upgrade at this point. They also traded David Montgomery, who they seemed to be phasing out last season in favor of Jahmyr Gibbs, who will be their bell cow back this season. Gibbs is the better back but the extra workload could wear on him as a smaller back for a bell cow role.
Defensively, the Lions have also made some changes over the offseason. They moved on from the oft-injured Marcus Davenport, who has made roughly $20 million over the past three seasons playing less than 500 total snaps. They replaced him with former Viking D.J. Wonnum, who turns 29 this year. Wonnum was always a decent backup but never a starting-caliber edge rusher.
The Lions are hoping that defensive tackle Alim McNeill, who is their third-largest cap hit this year at $29 million, will return to his form of 2-3 years ago before his injuries. He tore his ACL in 2024 which kept him out some games in 2025 but he also had an abdomen issue as well. Last season was his worst of his pro career according to PFF grading at 52.2 overall. Otherwise, the Lions will continue with Aiden Hutchinson but not much else up front.
At linebacker, the Lions return All-Pro Jack Campbell but moved on from Alex Anzalone in favor promoting Derrick Barnes. They also acquired Devin White who could see some action.
The Lions defensive secondary is in flux. Starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph start on the PUP list while former first-round pick Terrion Arnold, who was a starting cornerback, was released after an off-field issue this offseason. Arnold struggled as a starter and will be replaced by Rock Ya-Sin. DJ Reed returns as the other outside corner. He’s been a good corner over his career, but he turns 30 later this year and his best days are probably behind him. The Lions also moved on from Amik Robertson at slot corner and replaced him with Roger McCreary. He is a decent slot corner but probably not an upgrade.
The issue with the Lions now is after a few good drafts those core players are now getting paid. Jared Goff, Amon Ra St Brown Alim McNeill, and Penei Sewell are nearly $127 million cap hits collectively, and will be $152 million next year. Aiden Hutchinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jack Campbell, Kerby Joseph, and Jameson Williams have massively backend weighted contracts as well. And it looks like they will be letting TE Sam LaPorta and S Brian Branch go at the end of this season because they can’t afford to extend them.
In some ways it’s a good problem to have but when you are providing market-setting contracts to a handful of players, it leaves the roster top-heavy and difficult to fill out with quality players. Jared Goff turns 32 next month and averages a $65 million annual cap hit over the 2027-28 seasons. How well he’ll play as he gets further into his 30s remains a question, but how good the offensive line will be will likely be a major factor. Goff has the largest dropoff in performance under pressure of any starting quarterback in the league.
Overall, the Lions have made mostly lateral moves with their roster changes which don’t really move the needle compared to last season. If anything, the new starting roster may be a tick worse than last season, but not enough to warrant changes to their win total. Drew Petzing is probably an upgrade over John Morton, but considering Dan Campbell took over for Morton midway through last season and Petzing doesn’t bring a history of top offenses he coordinated, that’s not enough to move the needle either.
Injuries
Detroit ranked 31st in adjusted games lost (AGLs) last season, which is an outlier for bad injury luck. They ranked 25th in AGLs the season before, so the Lions have had back-to-back years of relatively bad injury luck. They were particularly hard hit on defense last season, as they were the hardest hit defense in terms of AGLs.
Using reversion to the mean theory, the Lions should fare better than last season in terms of injury luck which warrants an adjustment to their win total. Normally I’d go with a two-game adjustment for a 31st ranking, but we already know that starting center Cade Mays will be lost for at least half the season, Brian Branch for at least four games and Kerby Joseph at least four games as well but probably longer. He is dealing with a knee injury suffered last season which apparently is a chronic, degenerative condition. He’s also been away from the team for personal reasons. Branch suffered an Achilles injury in early December and may not return until after the Lions’ bye week 6.
So, given what we know about Lions starters who will be missing time this season even before the season starts, I’m going with a one-game adjustment rather than two.
Luck Factors
The Lions also had relatively bad luck last season beyond injuries. To determine luck factors, I am going again with the Luck Ratings from Team Rankings, and using the differential between actual and estimated wins from the DVOA stats at FTN. I average the two numbers to get a game adjustment amount.
The Lions had 10 post-game estimated wins last season compared to 9 actual wins, implying a net loss of one game due to bad luck.
An example of a team winning a game they weren’t expected to win based on what happened during the game is the Vikings victory over the Bills a few years ago with Jefferson’s iconic catch on 4th and 18 or whatever it was and Josh Allen fumbling the snap on the goal line. Neither is something likely to happen more often than not so while it was a game the Vikings won, it was also a game they would not be expected to win given the events of the game and the likelihood of them reoccurring that way (i.e. how many times out of 100 would Josh Allen fumble the snap at their one-yard line late in the game and the Vikings recover?).
The Lions also had bad luck according to Team Rankings, where they came in at -1.4, meaning they lost 1.4 games due to bad luck. Averaging the Team Rankings and estimated wins results in -1.2, so after rounding and assuming average luck this season, this adds one win to the Lions win total this season.
Strength of Schedule
The Lions are projected to have the easiest schedule in the league this season based on oddsmakers over/under win totals for their opponents. This is more accurate than using last season’s win total as it factors in offseason changes.
The reward for an embarrassing loss to the Max Brosmer-led Vikings (and net 3 yards passing) is a last-place schedule this season that includes the Cardinals in the NFC West (whereas the rest of the division plays the Rams, 49ers, or Seahawks) and the Titans (whereas the rest of the division plays the Jags, Texans, or Colts). The Lions also get the Giants in the NFC East whereas the rest of the division gets the Eagles, Cowboys, or Commanders.
The Lions had the 12th easiest schedule last season based on actual win-loss records of their opponents, so having the easiest projected schedule this season warrants a one game adjustment to their win total.
Here is the Lions schedule this season:
The Lions have only one tough matchup before their bye week at Buffalo, but have a tougher six-game stretch after their bye week against all three division opponents, the Patriots and Bucs with a road game at Miami mixed in. They finish with four of their last six games on the road, including three road games in the division.
But with eight games against bottom-half opponents in the Saints, Jets, Panthers, Cardinals, Dolphins, Falcons, Titans, and Giants, the Lions could amass eight wins just by beating teams they are supposed to beat.
Prediction for the Lions This Season
The Lions were 9-8 last season, so using that as a starting point and adding one win based on injury luck reverting somewhat to the mean, one win for reverting to average in other luck factors, and one win for an easier strength of schedule this season compared to last, that results in a 12-5 regular season record prediction for the Lions. I did not make any adjustments for roster or coaching changes as the net result wasn’t enough to warrant any.
A 12-5 record is likely to put them in firm contention for the division crown this season, if not win it outright.
We’ll see.
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