At long last, the 2026 NFL draft is almost here. If you’re tired of hearing about arm length, twitchiness, measurables, non-stop motors, character, and football IQ, you aren’t alone. Paralysis by analysis is a real thing, and it happens every April.
After the Dexter Lawrence trade this past weekend, the Giants hold 20% of the picks in the Top-10. Big Blue fans are excited by that prospect, but they also haven’t forgotten that the team was in a similar position in 2022 (in what was considered a stronger
draft) and the selections they made — Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux at Pick 5 and offensive tackle Evan Neal at Pick 7 — haven’t lived up to expectations. GM Joe Schoen and head coach John Harbaugh hope to nail it this time around.
The speculation around the fifth pick has been intense, and when the Giants traded Lawrence to the Bengals on Saturday night and added the 10th pick in the process, that just made their draft strategy more uncertain. Will the Giants trade out of one of the slots, to accumulate more capital? Of the prospects they covet most, which are likely to make it all the way to pick 10 if they pass at Pick 5? We’ll find out what they’re doing soon enough. Adding another Top-10 pick has made the first round way more interesting for the G-Men, and they’re perhaps the most pivotal team in the round.
I’ve been tracking the Fanduel odds for Pick 5, and the big move since my last column is the ascension of Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson in the wake of his workout last Friday. On that day, my most recent Pick 5 Odds Tracker column appeared here on the site. Here’s what the FanDuel odds for Pick 5 looked like at the time:
Ohio State LB Sonny Styles: +190
Ohio State S Caleb Downs: +250
Miami OT Francis Mauigoa +420
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: +650
Ohio State WR Carnell Tate: +1400
USC WR Jordyn Tyson +1900
With less than 36 hours remaining until the selections start coming off the board, here is what the odds for Pick 5 show at 9 a.m. on Wednesday, April 22:
Ohio State LB Sonny Styles: +185
USC WR Jordyn Tyson +285
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love: +380
Ohio State S Caleb Downs: +550
Miami OT Francis Mauigoa +950
Ohio State WR Carnell Tate: +1100
Here are some quick takeaways from the latest odds:
First, the rise of Tyson is significant. In the days since his workout, he has dropped from almost 20:1 to less than 3:1. By all accounts, he showed teams what they needed to see, after a hamstring injury limited him at the Combine. Eighteen teams attended that workout, but only two GMs were there, and Schoen was one of them. Tate’s odds have dropped, so the money seems to think the Giants have a preference for Tyson, who many experts believe would be the clear WR1 in this class if not for his injury history. For more on the Giants’ potential interest in Tyson, see this column.
It’s believed that both the Saints at No. 8 and the Chiefs at No. 9 – who both have an obvious need at wide receiver — have real interest in Tyson, so if the Giants want him, waiting until Pick 10 to take him would be dicey. It’s interesting to note that Tate is still the favorite for first wide receiver taken. His over/under for pick slot is 7.5, while Tyson is at 8.5.
Second, the odds for Love have shortened, and are now a little less than 4:1. If the Giants are going to add an offensive playmaker with their fifth pick to help out Jaxson Dart, who better than Love? He’s a rare talent and a home-run hitter. Most analysts have him as either the first or second-ranked player in the entire draft. But running back is not a premium position, nor is it a glaring need for the G-Men. For what it’s worth, Todd McShay gave Love to the Giants at Pick 5 in his final Mock Draft, after having Styes as the pick in most of his prior iterations. Styles is still the favorite at Pick 5 though, and his odds haven’t moved much in the last two weeks. Ed Valentine’s final Mock Draft Tracker will be up on the site tomorrow.
Third, the odds for Pick 10 aren’t that meaningful, since it’s so hard to know which players will make it there. But it’s worth noting that Downs has the shortest odds there, at +300. Right behind him is Tyson, at +330. For whatever reason, those are two players who the books are linking to Big Blue heading into the draft. Of the two, Downs is the one Vegas thinks is more likely to make it to Pick 10 (his Over/Under is 9.5).
I’ll be back with a final draft odds update on Thursday.
