UFC White House is finally here!
In a few short hours, weather permitting, cage fights will go down on the South White House lawn, a truly once-in-a-lifetime experience. While the White House is the true star of the show, the card is topped off by two title fights, a lightweight unification bout between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje, and an interim heavyweight bout between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane.
But which of those men will leave Washington, D.C. as champion? Let’s discuss.
Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
Topuria
Topuria is, at worst,
the second-best fighter in the world today, and is currently in the middle of a generational run, knocking out future Hall of Famers Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira in consecutive fights. He’s looking to add Gaethje to that list, and he is strongly expected to do so, given the strengths of his game.
Though he entered MMA as a grappler, Topuria has already established himself as one of the best punchers in the sport. His striking doesn’t have many frills, but technically sound, has good footwork, and has tremendous pop in his shots, which he trusts implicitly. Topuria can get out-worked on the feet, but when things start to drift away, he forces the issue with his power punches.
Topuria’s easiest path forward would be to go back to his roots and shoot early on Gaethje, who has struggled immensely when underneath talented grapplers. But Topuria hasn’t gone to that much of late, and he doesn’t necessarily need to. Topuria can also just get inside on Gaethje, and let his power take advantage of the battle-worn Gaethje. Or he can look to time a counter over the top of Gaethje’s jab and low kicks.
Gaethje
Gaethje is, at worst, the second-most exciting fighter to ever step into a cage. The only man to ever hold two interim UFC titles, Gaethje also has four Fights of the Year and, roughly, 67 post-fight bonuses. But despite being a future multiple-time Hall of Famer, he’s never won an undisputed UFC title, and this is almost certainly his final opportunity to do so.
The problem for Gaethje is that this is an uphill battle. The strength of Gaethje’s game is his striking, which alternates between sublime and sufficient. Gaethje has some of the most effective low kicks in the sport, and his jab is among the best … when he uses it. But Gaethje often forgets to employ his best weapons, instead falling into predictable patterns and relying on his toughness and raw power to make hay. That has worked extremely well at making him the most exciting fighter in the world, but it sometimes hurts him against the best of the best.
But that still might be the best plan of attack in this fight. Gaethje becomes so predictable defensively that planning a technical kickboxing fight with Topuria may end up getting him lanced. But Topuria does not have a bulletproof chin; he’s not nearly as practiced as Gaethje is in a rugged brawl. Jabbing and kicking at range is certainly valuable for Gaethje, but drawing Topuria into some classic Gaethje chaos could be his best path forward.
Prediction
Gaethje is not without tools in this fight, but it feels like a battle of inertia. Even if Gaethje can win exchanges with particular tactics, winning the war is still a big step. Gaethje has said he needs to be perfect to win this fight, and he has the right of it. But it’s hard to be perfect for 25 minutes, especially when you’re no longer at your peak. Prime Gaethje might give Topuria a real run, but Gaethje isn’t in his prime anymore.
Ilia Topuria def. Justin Gaethje via KO — 1:45, Round 3
Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane
Pereira
Pereira is one of the most unique fighters we’ve ever seen. A kickboxing great, Pereira came to MMA late and has been speed-running a GOAT career, winning titles in two weight classes, and now attempting to become the first person to ever win titles in three weight classes in the UFC.
At this point, everybody knows Pereira’s game: chop away with calf kicks, left hand go boom. It’s not the most intricate plan in the world, but my goodness, is it effective. And it may end up being the same here. Gane is a light-footed mover who thrives when he’s making it difficult for opponents to hit him, but if Pereira keeps chopping the legs, Gane’s movement slows, and then comes the left hook.
The big question is how Pereira will look up at heavyweight? Poatan killed himself to make middleweight, but seemed to be perfectly suited to light heavyweight. Now, up another weight class, he appears to have put on some size, which could help or hurt him. He’s used to dealing with quicker fighters, but is he the same while carrying more weight? And does the power translate up? We’ll see.
Gane
Looking to become only the second two-time interim champion in UFC history, Gane’s career has been mercurial. When he’s allowed to engage in a pure kickboxing match, Gane has looked sensational and nigh unbeatable. But when you mix in wrestling, Gane has struggled immensely. Fortunately for the Frenchman, this fight is likely to be exclusively on the feet.
As mentioned, Gane is unique at heavyweight in being a mover who doesn’t look to end fights with one punch. Instead, Gane chips away with combinations and works the body, piling up the attrition until his opponents begin to break down. Once that happens, then Gane puts the hammer down to chase the finish.
And this is a really effective strategy against Pereira. Poatan is not the most fleet of foot, and he’s also not a particularly great defensive fighter, using one slip and a counter, or slip and retreat. Gane’s combinations should find purchase there and his body work could prove critical against a man carrying more weight than he’s used to, and fighting in hot, humid conditions.
Prediction
This is a fascinating clash of styles. Pereira is the fighter more capable of finishing the fight at any moment, which tends to be a huge advantage in a 25-minute fight, but Gane’s style a real problem for Poatan. Gane’s combinations and body work mean Pereira probably has to land a big shot to win this, and perhaps the most under-discussed aspect of this fight is Gane’s chin, which is excellent. This is a man who spent 25 minutes with Francis Ngannou, and battled through eating a monster shot from Tai Tuivasa. Even if Pereira lands clean, it may not be enough.
Ciryl Gane def. Alex Pereira via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
