We still have just under a week to try and take our minds off the impending battle between Oregon and Texas Tech, so we may as well take a peek at the other quarterfinal matches, hmm?
Dec 31st 4:30 pm PT
– Cotton Bowl – #10 Miami vs. #2 Ohio State
Miami is 11-2 so far this season. They had a win against Notre Dame to start the season, and could be forgiven for a loss against SMU, but the earlier loss at home to Louisville was a typical head scratcher for a Crystobal-coached team.
The Hurricanes have a very good offense that gets its push from (no surprise here) a very good offensive line. As a team, Miami had the ninth-best rating in terms of team passing efficiency. Miami was ranked 31st nationally in rushing yards per game (188.9) this season, and 6th nationally in yards per carry (5.67).
Miami’s passing attack goes the way of Carson Beck. While it’s fair to say that losses are a team effort, Beck’s four INTs against Louisville and two INTs against SMU were factors in those losses. When he’s on, Miami can be very good, and when he’s off the Hurricanes will have a rough game.
The Hurricanes have a good front and are a top-10 defense in terms of rushing and total yards allowed. Their weakness is that they are 28th nationally in passing yards allowed. They have a very good turnover margin, over +11.
Ohio State’s defense continues to be something else. They have the highest-rated defense in the country, with the #5 rush defense and the #1 pass defense. The most points scored against them this season was, strangely enough, by Illinois in a 34-16 loss. Their only loss was against Indiana in the conference championship, by a score of 13-10.
OSU’s offense is reliant on a lethal passing attack. Their rushing offense is perfunctory, ranking 120th in the nation, but they’ll kill you on the pass. So. QB Julian Sayin has a rating of 182.15 (best in the nation), and he or receiver Jeremiah Smith could have made a case for winning the Heisman.
A long time ago, an Oregon coach named Mario Crystobal took the Ducks to Columbus, Ohio, and pulled off the unthinkable – winning a game against the Buckeyes in The Horseshoe.
In spite of losing the conference championship, I still feel that OSU is nearly as strong as they were last season and they’re the top team in the nation until they are not. Miami is here because they won a slugfest against Texas A&M (read: no one could score points, and it looked for a few minutes like the sides would be going into OT tied 3-3). The Buckeyes are 9.5 point favorites. If Miami wins, it will be the biggest upset of the expanded playoffs. To win, they have to stop OSU’s passing attack and win the turnover battle decisively.
Jan 1st 9:00 am PT – Orange Bowl – #5 Oregon vs. #4 Texas Tech
For those of us on the West Coast, this will be an early morning. Save your drinking for the game, not the night before. ATQ will have our normal excellent content ahead of the game.
Jan 1st 1:00 pm PT – Rose Bowl – #9 Alabama vs. #1 Indiana
It’s been a couple of minutes since Alabama was not the favorite to win a CFP game; and yet, here we are. The 11-3 Crimson Tide are 7-point dogs to the Hoosiers. ‘Bama was a mixed bag this season. They started out by being trounced by Florida State, but picked up wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. They lost to Oklahoma and then Georgia beat them in their SEC Championship revenge match.
Alabama got some revenge of their own, and got the Oklahoma monkey off their back in the first round of the CFP to earn the right to take on Indiana. They had to pull off the comeback to make it happen, and here they are.
Much like Miami with Beck, Alabama relies on Ty Simpson’s arm for their offensive production, because their running game is rather spotty. The Tide’s rushing is 74th in the nation, so Simpson has to be on his ‘A’ game for Alabama to be competitive.
The Tide have a top 10-15 defense, depending upon the metric one is using. They are fairly balanced in terms of run vs. pass defense.
Indiana is undefeated and has an elite offense and defense. Having played them earlier this season, I don’t think I really need to regurgitate what we know about them. That they are good is not a surprise. That they are as good as they are has been eye-opening for me.
Fernando Mendoza has had an outstanding season at QB. he’s #2 in the pass ratings, and has thrown more TDs and is tied for first with the least interceptions among the top-rated passers. Other fan bases can mock the Heisman for not giving it to their guy, but the Heisman is a beauty contest, and when you’re passing at a top level and your team is undefeated (and undefeated against some top foes), well, you’re getting the nod.
This is going to be a difficult game for Alabama to win. I think that Indiana is just that good. But in order to win, ‘Bama’s offense will need to step up, especially in the passing game. If they can’t pass – a tough call against the Hoosiers – then it’s time to go home. Also, like Miami, Alabama also needs to win the turnover battle. They are +8 for the season, but are +11 in games that they win.
Jan 1st 5:00 pm PT – Sugar Bowl – #6 Ole Miss vs. #3 Georgia
After having knocked off Tulane in the first round, Ole Miss is 12-1. I really feel for Ole Miss, what with Lane Kiffin running off across town to be with some hot new chick and leaving you with the dog.
The Rebels come into this game with a 12-1 record. Their only loss was a 43-35 shootout against Georgia. Their ranked wins were against Oklahoma and LSU (well, LSU was #4 at the time, but that was clear back in September. A long time ago).
Ole Miss was #2 in total offense and #3 in scoring offense over the season. Most other metrics have them in the top ten in offensive production. The Rebels have a strong running game and their overall offensive production has been elite even as quarterback Trinidad Chambliss falls behind most (but not all) of the other QBs in the quarterfinals.
The defense has been ranked in the mid-teens most of the season, but struggled late in the season in creating pressure on the opposition quarterback. With a turnover margin of 0, the Rebels have also struggled at creating turnovers, and don’t have the success of most of the other teams remaining in the playoff.
The Bulldogs come into the quarterfinals having only lost one game, the early season loss to Alabama. Drubbing Alabama in the SEC Championship assured Georgia of the #3 spot in the playoffs.
The Bulldogs rank about #18 in rushing. Quarterback Gunner Stockton’s ranking and stats aren’t going to jump at you, but Georgia has an even offensive attack, and surface observation shows no glaring weakness in passing vs. running the ball.
This should be a match of a great Ole Miss offense going against a classic Georgia defense. Should be…but you have to wonder how Kiffin’s clumsy exit has affected the Rebels. Are they the spurned ex that is pouting because they’re stuck with the dog? Are they fighting mad and going to knock down the hot guy they’re up against? What is the mindset of Ole Miss?
Georgia has been here before. Kirby Smart presumably has the coaching edge over Ole Miss’ interim coach (I would have to look up the name to see who it is, and that’s minutes of my life that I can’t have back). Will coaching experience and the edge in defensive talent prevail?
The line has been wobbly on this game, like the house doesn’t know quite what to make of it, but as of right now Ole Miss is about a 7-point underdog. We’ll see if the line has any more movement between now and January 1st.
One final thing before we twiddle our thumbs and wait for that first kickoff. We all remember what happened during last year’s playoff, right? At the risk of re-traumatizing Ducks fans about what happened after the long layoff (yes, we lost – to the eventual champion, but we still lost), we should remember that all of the bye teams lost. Are we going to see something similar? Is the system suspect if three or four teams with a bye lose? Is a loss by a couple of the top-four seeds going to be unsurprising?
Just think of the chaos that would ensue if three or four of the top seeds lost next week. Hey, I’m all for the chaos, because that would probably mean the Ducks are part of the chaos, and then it could be anyone’s championship. Just think how upset the blue bloods will be!
The other blue bloods, I mean.
