The Spurs reached the Finals and retained their most important players. Normally, that would mean a very similar rotation and starting lineup, but the emergence of young players could shake things up. Dylan Harper, in particular, could not be coming off the bench anymore if his and Stephon Castle’s statements in a GQ interview are correct.
Harperhas walked back his comment, but coach Mitch Johnson hasn’t definitively said anything. Harper starting would make sense considering his impressive rookie
year and the fact that he’s part of the future of the franchise, but De’Aaron Fox is still around, and starting the three guards together would present some problems.
There’s a strong case to be made that, while playing Harper more and giving him more responsibilities, keeping him as a sixth man while Fox starts would be the way to go.
The Spurs’ starting lineup was great, and Fox played a big part in it
The best argument for keeping Harper and free agent signing Tobias Harris off the starting lineup is that the unit was so good that it’s unlikely it could get much better. The five-man group of Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, and Victor Wembanyama outscored opponents by 17.6 points per 100 possessions in the regular season. In the postseason, that already insane number climbed to 22.4. The numbers were similar with Harrison Barnes, the original starter at power forward, in the regular season. The lineup simply works.
Granted, the four-man group with Harper in Fox’s place was similarly impressive, although not quite as statistically dominant. It’s possible to think that an improved Harper could raise the ceiling of the group, but an acclimated and healthy Fox could do the same. In a new role for him, Fox averaged 18.6 points and 6.2 assists, stepped up when Victor Wembanyama was injured, and had no problem picking his spots while letting Castle run the offense often. There’s built-in chemistry with last year’s starters that would make little sense to disrupt.
When it comes to the postseason, all bets are off. The Spurs routinely started Manu Ginobili, who typically came off the bench, when things were not clicking. But early on, it seems worth it to stick with what worked.
Rehabilitating Fox’s trade value could be harder to do in a bench role or with more ball handlers next to him
Fox had a strong season that earned him an All-Star spot, but an injury and some struggles with his jumper and with decision-making in the postseason brought a lot of scrutiny about his value as a max player. Fox is owed $221 million over the next four years, and while he should still be in his late prime when that deal expires, it’s not looking great. Other point guards on massive contracts have been moved recently, so it’s not impossible to get him off the books, but it would be much simpler to do so while actually getting value back after a bounceback season.
Having Fox come off the bench, even if he were to put together a Sixth Man of the Year season, would likely hurt his trade value, as it would signal to the league that the Spurs have given up on him as a starter. Placing Harper in the starting unit next to Fox and Castle would force the three to share the ball more, which could affect all their numbers, and it would mean Fox would have to play off the ball more, where another mediocre jump-shooting year would absolutely destroy his market value.
Fox as a starter, toggling between second and third option next to just one ball handler and Victor Wembanyama, could have the type of year that makes it easier to move him later to get the books in order and make room for Harper. Taking the long view seems smarter.
As long as he gets to run the second unit and gets minutes with the other starters, Harper’s development should be fine
The team should be fine with the same starting unit, and keeping Fox in it makes sense, considering chemistry and the need to up his trade value. The question is, will having Harper come off the bench for another season derail his development or sour him on the Spurs, long term? The answer to that question is arguably more important than anything else, because Harper has flashed superstar potential. If starting was necessary for him to develop and feel at home, the other aspects wouldn’t matter as much. The good news is, it doesn’t look like that’s the case.
As mentioned, Harper commented on his desire to start in an interview, but he claims he was joking and has walked those comments back. As the former second overall pick and playoff standout, he’d probably like to, but he seems to understand that the team comes first. On the court, he should still get plenty of opportunities to both run his own unit and play with the other stars, especially if Mitch Johnson goes through with the plan of playing all three guards together for stretches. Being a sixth man would also give Harper the opportunity to develop more as a floor general instead of just being a scoring guard with the most stacked lineups.
As long as the team has explained Harper their vision for the future and how it heavily involves him, another year off the bench shouldn’t bother him to the point of holding a grudge, and it could help both his development and the team’s stability to maintain the status quo, for now.
