As the Red Sox approach Opening Day, it’s time to look at the other American League playoff contenders. Next up, one of 2025’s most disappointing teams.
What’s this team’s deal?
The 2023 Baltimore Orioles wown 101 games and took first place in the AL East. The 2024 edition of the club won 91 games and finished in second place in the division. The 2025 team won, uh, 75 games and finished in last place in the AL East.
Last year was supposed to be about building on their success and cementing the O’s as the class of the division
while their young stars were cheap and under team control. Their drafting and development was supposed to make this an Orioles decade. But instead it ended abruptly and turned into a record scratch moment for President of Baseball Operations or POBO Mike Elias.
After firing manager Brandon Hyde during the season, POBO Elias didn’t want to follow the same path and tried to retool in Birdland. 2025 saw the team play poorly on both sides of the ball: 4.18 runs scored per game was the seventh worst in MLB and their pitchers allowed 4.86 runs per game, the sixth most. While the O’s biggest need has been pitching, the offense wasn’t really covering itself in glory either.
The additions:
Pete Alonso. The Polar Bear has hit at least 34 home runs in each season except 2020. He hit 53 as a rookie, 38 last year, and has two 40+ homer seasons on his resume. He’s here to mash.
Chris Bassitt. In 2024 the Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes to be their ace. That worked well. Letting him leave via free agency was certainly a choice that worked out in 2025 as he was injured, but they still needed someone at the top of that rotation. One year of Chris Bassitt isn’t that guy, but his 3.89 ERA / 4.13 FIP over three years in Toronto is a nice floor to have in a rotation that has been characterized by instability.
Ryan Helsley. The former St. Louis Cardinals closer spent the back half of 2025 pitching poorly for the New York Mets. He’ll help in the bullpen if he can return to form.
Zach Eflin. Retained after a year and a half in Baltimore but was technically a free agent. Eflin is coming off a down season and looks to bounce back to his 2024 post-trade time with the O’s.
The largest subtraction this season was the trade of Grayson Rodriguez to the Los Angeles Angels for outfielder Taylor Ward. With Rodriguez suffering another arm injury and starting 2026 on the IL maybe trading him for a guy coming off a 36 homer season was the right call.
How good are they?
Right now FanGraphs projects the Orioles at 83.5 wins and 78.5 losses, recognizing that there are no 0.5s when the games are played. That’s fourth place in the AL East by their calculations behind the Yankees, Red Sox, and Jays.
Is that the most likely scenario though? It’s hard to say. So much forward progress simply came to a halt. Adley Rutschman fell off back-to-back All Star seasons to look relatively ordinary. Gunnar Henderson likewise took a step back, although he still had a good season with an OPS of almost .800 along with 17 homers and 30 steals. Jackson Holliday, who was hailed as the next big thing, underwhelmed for a second straight season. Any or all of these players could turn it around, which would make it more likely the O’s are good. And their pitching includes Trevor Rogers at the top of the rotation, coming off a 1.81/2.82 ERA/FIP season, having absolutely caught fire in Baltimore.
Those three teams above them are also expected to be good and the Rays haven’t been truly bad in a while. It might be hard for even a good Baltimore team to do much in 2026 and they’re still probably a pitcher short in the rotation.
Who’s their most likable player?
Is it already Pete Alonso? It might be. The guy loves to play baseball. From an opposing viewpoint that’s a big plus.
Who’s their least likable player?
Manny Machado. I kid. But, also it still is.
Gunnar Henderson probably claims the mantle for playing the hardest, or at least seeming to. In 40 games he’s hit .240/.362/.534 with 9 home runs against Boston. That’s talent but also a reason to dislike him.
Schedule against the Red Sox
As an AL East rival there will be a few matchups against the Orioles.
April 24-26 in Baltimore.
June 2-4 in Boston.
July 20-22 in Boston.
September 3-6 in Baltimore.
Season Prediction
Looking at the Orioles, you can see there’s a lot of potential. They’re almost oozing. But there has been some big regression since 2023 and a team that probably overachieved. FanGraphs has the top team in the East sitting on 86.6 wins and I think that’s where pre-season forecasting can have limits. I think in this case, though, it’s about right. This is a .500 team that could go nuts if they turn the clock back on the offense, but the pitching just isn’t there. That’s not to say this is a bad team. But it’s one that did surprisingly little considering that the two years after 2023 were steps in the wrong direction.
