The Las Vegas Raiders hit the road inWeek 5 to take on the New England Patriots in an early-season battle that could have big playoff implications down the line. So, we’ll be touching on the upcoming game and focusing heavily on the Raiders’ offensive line for this week’s mailbag. Let’s get to it!
Q: Did Jackson Powers-Johnson get locked into the starting guard position after missing the Kansas City game and seeing Chris Jones dominate?
A: I wouldn’t go as far as saying Powers-Johnson is “locked into”
the starting spot because he’s been so hit or miss this season, and his entire career, really. But Caleb Rogers certainly blew an opportunity to unseat JPJ with how much Rogers struggled against Jones. Of course, that’s a future Hall of Famer who has made guards much better than Rogers look bad on plenty of occasions. So, it’s understandable that the second-year pro had a rough game, but at least to me, nothing about his performance said that a lineup change needs to be made.
In other words, I think it’s still a fluid situation where Powers-Johnson shouldn’t feel too comfortable as a starter. However, I’m expecting him to be with the first-string offense in New England.
Q: With the amount of free agent money and draft capital the Raiders spent on the O-line these last two offseasons, do you think it’s expected they will have, at least, a top-15 pass-blocking and run-blocking line by the end of this season?
A: Well, part of the problem is that the draft capital they’ve used on the offensive line isn’t seeing the field much right now. Rogers played last week because the guy in front of him was injured, Trey Zuhn III is the swing tackle/jumbo tight end who has played just nine snaps this season, and Charles Grant has only gotten a significant amount of playing time in one game (Week 18 versus the Chiefs last year). In free agency, Tyler Linderbaum got a massive contract, but Spencer Burford is only making about $3.3 million.
So, outside of Linderbaum, the Raiders are getting little to nothing from their significant investments in the offensive line over the last two offseasons. That’s an area of improvement for John Spytek moving forward because his third-round picks (Rogers, Grant, Zuhn, Darien Porter and Keyron Crawford) are looking pretty rough right now. Of course, those guys can contribute down the line, but the immediate return is low.
But to answer your question, I do think getting back to an average offensive line is a reasonable expectation. I’d say the unit is falling short of that right now, but they have the potential to get there by the end of the season. Otherwise, some significant changes will need to be made moving forward.
Q: Thanks for breaking down Rob Leonard’s “MEG” coverage last week! Can you do a similar explanation of Kubiak’s offensive line scheme and how that scheme fits or doesn’t fit our main starters and key backups (i.e. Rogers, Zuhn, Grant)? Does this fit with the offensive lines Rick Dennison has coached? I know the Raiders run a lot of wide-zone, but I don’t have much understanding of how that differs from power, duo, or any other system, nor how well our line is doing at adapting to Kubiak’s playbook, in your opinion?
A: On Dennison, he’s been coaching with the Kubiaks for decades, breaking into coaching under Gary Kubiak (Klint’s dad) with the Denver Broncos in 1995. Gary was the Broncos’ offensive coordinator at the time, while Mike Shanahan was the head coach. So, Dennison definitely knows how to coach offensive linemen in this offense.
What differs between a wide-zone rushing attack versus a gap/power scheme is that the entire offensive line is moving together and in the same direction as the running back, while the latter includes more down blocks and a puller or two unless it’s duo.
So, in gap runs, three or four offensive linemen are going the opposite direction of the running back, with one or two pullers lead blocking or moving in the same direction as the running back. Duo is a little different because there is no puller, so all five offensive linemen (and the tight end) down block or have a double team, and in the opposite direction of the back.
The other big difference in the two schemes is that the running back has more flexibility to bounce or cutback in zone, whereas gap runs are more strict about where to hit the hole.
In zone, a running back will have a targeted area initially, but he’s taught to adjust based on the defense to make the defense wrong. It’s a similar process with the line, where they can be more patient and ride the defender they’re blocking where he wants to go and exaggerate the movement.
For example, if an offensive tackle is blocking a defensive end that pinches or slants inside, the tackle will try to push the defensive end all the way inside and into the center. But in a gap scheme, the goal is to run into a specific gap and only bounce outside if it’s absolutely necessary (i.e., someone losing up front), so that tackle would try to cut off the end and wall him off to keep the B-gap open if that’s where the play is designed to hit.
As a result, a gap-heavy team is going to want bigger but less athletic offensive linemen who can move 300-pound defensive tackles out of the way. Whereas a zone-heavy team is willing to sacrifice size and strength for linemen who can move and adjust based on the defense. Don’t get me wrong, linemen still need plenty of strength and athleticism in either system. But how much importance a team places on strength versus athleticism varies based on the scheme.
When it comes to the Raiders, they have a lot of linemen who fit the wide zone scheme. That’s where Kolton Miller is at his best in the running game, Linderbaum is really athletic, as are Zuhn and Rogers. Grant didn’t test well at the combine, but his quickness and agility stood out on tape to execute reach blocks and fit into a wide zone system.
JPJ is probably a better fit in a gap scheme, but he was plenty athletic at Oregon to execute zone blocks. His issues are more mental because he keeps going for the kill shot instead of recognizing when he just needs to get in front of or get a hat on a defender. And a big reason why Burford is even on the team is that he played in the Kubiak/Shanahan scheme with the 49ers.
I didn’t think DJ Glaze would be a good fit with Kubiak at tackle because he isn’t very athletic. But Glaze is proving me wrong and playing really well right now.
So, I think the Raiders have the right (or enough) pieces to put it all together. But a zone scheme does require more continuity since the entire line is moving together (it’s kind of similar to pass protection in that regard), and that can take some time to build. Hopefully, we start seeing some improvements in the coming weeks now that the line has a few games together under its belt.
Q: How do you feel about the starting OTs right now? Kolton Miller looking kinda older? Is he declining slightly? I’ve heard that Glaze is benefiting from chips and scheme help, then I’ve heard that he’s much improved regardless of any help. Where do you stand on Glaze?
A: Someone else asked if Glaze is playing well enough at right tackle that it makes sense to give Zuhn reps at guard instead of tackle.
Miller definitely had a bad game last week, one of the worst I’ve seen from him in a while. But he was pretty good during the first three weeks, to the point where I’m not worried about the left tackle spot right now. But he turned 31 on Friday (happy birthday, Kolton!), so it certainly wouldn’t be a bad idea to add a contingency plan on the blind side this offseason.
Could that be Grant’s job in the future? Maybe, but we’ve barely seen him play and, barring an injury, it doesn’t seem like that will change anytime soon. I’m not saying this would happen, but even if the Raiders decide to move on from Miller in the spring, I think they’d still have to bring in some competition for Grant rather than giving the job to a guy who has barely played. And if they don’t move on from Miller, Grant is looking at spending three years riding the bench before hitting a contract season in 2028.
Now, Zuhn could factor into the equation, seeing as he played left tackle in college. However, he was primarily on the right side and the interior during training camp. And, to answer the question, I think the Raiders should give him more reps at guard given how well Glaze has played so far this season. Meanwhile, the guards are still the weak links of the offensive line.
Looking at the long-term plan, Burford is only on a one-year deal and had a good game last week, but he shouldn’t be a priority to re-sign given how the first three games went. If he turns the corner and finishes the campaign strong, then that changes. But that remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, Powers-Johnson is no slam-dunk starter and only has two years left on his contract. So, the front office and coaching staff might want to give Zuhn a longer look at guard to see if he’s the future solution.
When it comes to Glaze, he’s probably been the biggest surprise for me this season. Sure, he might be getting some help. But Pro Football Focus charts “true pass sets” (see the link for a full explanation), which removes plays like play-action, quick passes and screens, and he’s only given up four pressures (one sack) on 75 true pass sets so far this season.
I wrote him off in the offseason, but he’s proving me wrong and shutting me up! I couldn’t be happier for the guy, and I’m glad he’s playing well! Keep it going!
Q: While watching the Raiders-Chiefs game, I noticed on multiple plays that Tyler Linderbaum was like 5 yards downfield almost immediately, while at the same time a defender had gone through a gap to meet the RB in the backfield. I’m not sure if his quick release to get upfield is by design or if it’s a problem with his read of the defense. What have you noticed in watching tape that might explain why the RBs are getting hit almost immediately after the handoff on so many plays?
A: On Linderbaum, I haven’t noticed many missed assignments from him, and he’s typically in the right spot. Now, could there be a play or two (or more) that you noticed last week where he was too quick to climb to the second level? Possibly, but it’s hard to say definitively without having the play in front of me. But generally speaking, Linderbaum is where he should be.
Something that stood out last week in the running game is that Kansas City was rotating a safety into the box almost every time the Raiders used motion to run the ball. That helped tilt the math in the Chiefs’ favor, where there were several runs with an unblocked defender that the offensive line/blocking scheme couldn’t account for, meaning the Raiders had six blockers to account for seven defenders in the box. But in the second half, Kubiak stopped using as much motion and increased the tempo of the offense, which led to more success in the running game because Kansas City couldn’t stack the box.
Marcus pointed that out and dove into the offensive line on the Tape Don’t Lie review of the game, if you’re looking for a more detailed explanation.
Q: How often is Ashton Jeanty getting hit/tackled by defensive linemen as opposed to LBs and DBs? Wonder if that’s why he is so banged up?
A: Off the top of my head, I’d lean toward LBs and DBs because teams are loading up the box and getting an unblocked defender, which is typically going to be a linebacker or safety rather than a defensive lineman. But I also don’t have a hard number or anything like that to back that statement up.
I’m not sure if who is tackling him is why he’s so banged up, but that could have something to do with it. Jeanty is having foot and ankle injuries, which could be a result of getting twisted or turned while getting tackled by a smaller but more athletic defender rather than someone who is bigger and stronger and can just use brute force to take him straight to the ground.
Q: Areas of biggest improvement needed and how likely is it that it improves, what players will be most important to it? I don’t really mean positions necessarily, but like attributes of the team. Like getting this part of the offense going, is there stuff in the scheme on either side that they wanna do but just hasn’t worked?
A: The running game is the biggest one to me. The season opener gave us hope, but that’s looked more indicative of playing the Dolphins than a significant change from last season for the Raiders, given how the last three weeks have gone. More continuity with the offensive line will help, as well as JPJ becoming more consistent and Kubiak figuring out the motion issue mentioned above.
What gives me some confidence that Las Vegas will figure it out is an article that Vinny Bonsignore wrote for the California Post earlier this week.
“The early returns in Seattle last season were hardly overwhelming, either. With Kubiak in his first and only year as offensive coordinator, the Seahawks averaged just 3.7 yards per carry through their first eight games, finishing below 100 rushing yards four times. Over their final 12 games, including the Super Bowl, they surpassed 100 yards 10 times and averaged 4.5 yards per carry.”
I think Kubiak is a smart coach who will make adjustments, and it seems like he’s already started to, if the second half of the Chiefs game is any indication. Of course, Jeanty has room for improvement and needs to get back to 100% (or as close to it as possible), too.
So, there’s plenty of reason to believe the running game can improve, and I don’t think it’s that far off right now. But we need to start seeing results soon.
Q: How much is Klint Kubiak using 12 personnel, and has he used any 13 personnel? Between the Mayer extension, how bad they are at WR and the Ian Thomas sighting last week, I’m assuming Kubiak is leaning into heavy sets.
A: According to Sumer Sports, the Raiders have the third-highest 12 personnel usage (35.07%) in the NFL, but are 18th in 13 personnel (4.85%). We could see the latter increase with Jack Bech — a good blocking receiver — on injured reserve and Bowers back in the lineup. For example, Thomas’ snap share went from 20.0% in Week 3 (Bowers’ first game back) to 31.0% against the Chiefs, per Pro Football Reference.
Also, adding fullback Connor Heyward to the mix has led to more 22 personnel, which Vegas has used the second-most frequently (17.54%). On top of that, the team is fifth in 21 personnel rate (17.54%) and dead last in 11 personnel (19.40%, more than 12% lower than any other club).
So, your assumption is correct: Kubiak is leaning into heavy sets pretty heavily (pun intended).
Q: Do you think Spytek whiffed on Kwity Paye?
A: I thought Paye played well in the season opener, but he hasn’t done much in the last three weeks. For perspective, the free-agent signing had eight pressures, two sacks and five defensive stops against the Dolphins, per PFF. In the three games since then, he has one pressure, no sacks and one stop while earning grades in the 40s for each outing. So it’s trending that way, but I like to give a guy at least half a season before I write him off.
Q: What do you think the Raiders’ record will be going into the trade deadline? 5 more games (Pats, Bills, Rams, Jets, Niners). Is 7-2 unrealistic?
A: I don’t know if I should answer this because my record prediction for this season has been awful, LOL! But screw it, eventually I’ll get one right!
I’m not going to say 7-2 is unrealistic because, to be honest, I would have said 3-1 would be unrealistic about a month ago. But I will say that’s pretty optimistic. A more realistic scenario, in my opinion, is that the Raiders take care of business against the Jets and then split the Patriots, Bills, Rams and 49ers games. That would put them at 6-3, which obviously is only one game lower than what you have.
If that’s the case, I think you can feel pretty good about Las Vegas’ playoff chances heading into the second half of the season. Not only would they have a strong record, but it would also mean they’ve beaten a couple of good/playoff caliber teams. Say the Raiders go 1-3 instead of 2-2 against the four teams above; now the postseason odds are more of a dice roll at 5-4. In other words, there’s still a chance, but the confidence level is much lower.
Someone else asked about the chances of the Raiders winning this Sunday, and I definitely think this is a winnable game. In fact, if we’re looking at the four-team scenario, I think the Patriots are the weakest of that bunch, especially considering they’ll be down several key defenders like cornerback Christian Gonzalez. So, when it comes to the postseason, I think this is a pretty big one that is as close to a “must-win” as it gets at this stage of the season.
Circling back to the 2-2 split, I’m a lot less confident in Las Vegas winning two out of three against Buffalo, the Rams and San Francisco if they can’t beat New England. I know the Patriots beat the Bills last week, but divisional games are different, and the Pats just seem to have the Bills number. Team for team, I’m still taking Josh Allen and Co.
Q: Depth chart shows Darien Porter ahead of Hezekiah Masses. Was Masses bad enough to lose the job last week, or does he still start? Do you think there could be more of a split with the CBs going forward?
A: I wouldn’t pay too much attention to the weekly depth charts because they are considered unofficial, and coaches don’t have an incentive to update them because of that. If Porter is going to start over Masses this week, I’d be surprised that Kubiak was willing to tip that to the Patriots by updating the depth chart, given how Kubiak has operated so far. But of course, there is a possibility that happens.
Masses had the three interceptions in Weeks 2 and 3 to mask some of the rookie mistakes he had, but the latter did occur and got exposed by the Chiefs. He gave up a season-high 62 yards and two touchdowns in coverage, per PFF, while having a bad missed tackle against the run. So, I think it’s justified to at least work Porter back into the rotation and maybe even give him the start.
On top of that, Eric Stokes still isn’t playing particularly well this season. That could open the door for a three-man rotation at corner for the time being, giving the coaching staff a bigger sample size and a week or so to evaluate which two outside corners give the defense the best chance to succeed.
One more note to keep an eye on: Masses has taken 11 snaps in the slot over the last two weeks, per PFF. Obviously, that’s not a lot, but it could be a sign that the Raiders are experimenting with getting these three corners on the field at the same time.
Q: Some fans and posters have been calling to replace Kirk Cousins with Fernando Mendoza because of the former’s lack of mobility and inadequate arm strength. What do you say to that?
A: I agree that Mendoza brings more mobility and can open up the deep passing game more, while also being able to fit passes into tight windows more frequently. But I think you have to ride the hot hand right now. Cousins has his limitations, but he’s operating the offense and playing well right now. The Raiders are still averaging 28.8 points per game (seventh-best in the NFL), so don’t fix what isn’t broken just yet.
That being said, Cousin’s leash gets shorter after every week regardless of how he plays because that — in theory — means Mendoza is getting closer to being ready to play. I’m sure Captain Kirk knows that; he’s been pretty up front about recognizing the situation he’s in as a stop-gap starter. So, as we get further into the season, it could be a circumstance where one bad game leads to the switch.
I’ve always felt like the situation is more about when the rookie is ready rather than how the veteran is playing. That gets thrown off track a bit with the 3-1 start, but it’s not as if the long-term vision for the team is completely derailed after four weeks.
That’ll do it for this week’s mailbag. Thank you all for submitting questions and, as your weekly reminder, if you’d like to have your questions answered in a future column, tweet them at me, @MHolder95, email them to SBPQuestions1@gmail.com or look for our weekly call for questions on the site. The latter will continue to publish on Thursdays.
