The Wild Card Race.
As of Monday morning, the Marlins are 5 games back from the Diamondbacks in the NL Wild Card race.
The Diamondbacks have chances of winning a NL Wild Card. As of Monday morning, they were 2.5 games back from the third Wild Card. They need to win this series, and a sweep would be really nice.
The Obvious. Diamondbacks bats will live-like-kings in this series. In September (through the 10th), the Marlins allowed an average of 7 runs per game.
The Subtle. Although this season the Diamondbacks allowed an
average of 4.41 runs per game (much less than 7), in 20% of their games they allowed 7 or more runs.
The Difference that Matters. Winning games is the difference that matters.
Royals Players to Watch.
Former Diamondback Deyvision De Los Santos at first base. In 2022, he was a Dbacks minor league All-Star. In 2024, he was traded to the Marlins. This season is his MLB debut. His OPS+ of 133 is outstanding, but his .444 BABIP suggests that his batting is not sustainable. He is a bench player and may not play in every game.
Pitching Matchups.
Announced Diamondbacks Pitchers:
Corbin Burnes. His first game back he pitched three scoreless innings (2 hits and 2 walks). His results were excellent! With the caveat of only 9 batted balls (and zero ground balls), his underlying statistics tend to show he only pitched average (4.39 xERA, 3.79 FIP, 7.27 xFIP). Nevertheless, I’m confident he will again have excellent results.
Michael Soroka. His first game back he pitched 4 innings with 3 earned runs (3 hits and 1 walk). With the caveat of 11 BIPs, his underlying statistics show that possibly he pitched better than each of Burnes and Gallen in their first game back (3.04 FIP, .319 xOBP, .407 xSLG).
Merrill Kelly. Two of his last three starts were quality starts. The non-quality start was 4.1 innings with only 1 eanred run, and the Diamondbacks won that game.
Anounced Marlins Starters:
Sandy Alcantara. The Marlins lost the last six games that he was the starting pitcher. That increased my confidence that the Diamondbacks will win this game.
Janson Junk. In September, his 10.13 ERA (2 games) shows that the Diamondbacks will have chances to score runs. Will they win this game?
Ryan Gusto. In June, he pitched well against the Diamondbacks (0 earned runs in 4 innings). On the other hand, in his latest start against the Cubs, he allowed 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings. Will he pitch with Gusto?
Game start times follow:
Monday, 6:40 PM MST.
Tuesday, 6:40 PM MST.
Wednesday, 6:40 PM MST.
