There are weeks where I agonize over Fridays and publishing at OTE: Do we have DWT;WT posted? (yes) Has there been a Mailbag in <2 weeks? (no) Is Power Poll all set? (yes) Do hwe have a plan in place for life post-Dead Read and post-well, y’know? (lolno)
And so this lead-in because more difficult. I could rhapsodize about some obscure metric that explains New Mexico-UCLA, but that’s DWT;WT’s function. I could bemoan the decline of the MAC in the Age of the Portal, but, well…read down. Heck, I could launch
into soaring rhetoric comparing the crisp fall air to the chill of dreams dashed and aspirations shattered in the chilly realities of another wasted football season.
You’re not here for that.
You’re here to answer one simple question:
Did I put too much butter on this heel of a loaf of bread?
Answers below.
About Last Week
- Rough week. No one finished better than 7-6 against the spread.
- Congrats RUready. Only picker to get all 13 games correct straight up.
- AlmaOtter clearly trying to rest on his laurels. That won’t work, brother.
The Picks
All times CDT, because reasons.
Friday, September 12
New Mexico Lobos @ UCLA Bruins
9PM | BTN | UCLA -15 | O/U 52.5
Straight Up: UCLA 9-2
Against the Spread: New Mexico 9-2
RUReady4Brazil: UCLA’s best chance for a win, so I have them in the survivor pool.
Buffkomodo: UCLA wins but it’s so uncomfortable that reality sets in it’ll be the only one of the year.
BRT: I did it. I picked New Mexico. UCLA should win, but I have so little confidence in them right now. New Mexico at least looked sprightly against Michigan. Could be more interesting than it should be.
Larry31: I have no idea why I picked UCLA to cover. There is no justification for this pick.
misdreavus79: Now we get to find out if they’re “lose to New Mexico” bad.
BoilerUp89: I won’t over think this one. UNM didn’t get invited to the Pac for a reason. They have bad football. UCLA isn’t good either but they should win. I’ll say by 11.
Thumpasaurus: New Mexico was good last year, but they’ve lost all of their talent to a New Mexodus. They’re depleted enough for UCLA to actually get this as part of my Oops All Favorites Covering slate.
MNW: Averaging under 4 ypc as a team, and a QB who has 1 TD to 3 picks. I think Jason Eck could build something in ABQ, but it’s going to take a while for him to get his guys and impose an identity.
That said, it’d be really funny if it turns out UCLA is just Northwestern levels of putrid. So we’ll say Bruins, 32-23.
RockyMtnBlue: New Mexico has virtually zero talent, but right now I’m envious of their head coach. UCLA has been a mess. UCLA 24-20
Saturday, September 13
(4) Oregon Ducks @ Northwestern Wildcats
11AM | FOX | Oregon -28.5 | O/U 51.5
Straight Up: Oregon 11-0
Against the Spread: Oregon 10-1
RUReady4Brazil: How much better have the Cats gotten since 2024? Are they the team that put up three points in Week 1 or 42 in Week 2? Irregardless, they lose, but we could learn a little about these two teams.
Buffkomodo: No, no you won’t learn anything. We all knew Oregon was good and we all knew Northwestern stunk. The trends hold.
BRT: Rated R for Graphic Violence
Larry31: Yeah, what BRT said. It looks like the Ducks might be pretty good this year. And it seems like NW’s attitude toward the new professional sports state of college football is more aligned with the University of Chicago.
misdreavus79: Traveling cross-country for a 9 AM kick is still hard, and Northwestern has a knack for dragging everyone to their level. Four touchdowns and an extra score is just a bit too much for me. Oregon 38, Northwestern 10
BoilerUp89: Oregon by 45.
Thumpasaurus: Oregon has a lot of shiny new toys they’d like to play with.
MNW: I could see this one, best-case scenario, being like the Ohio State game last year: a groggy Top 5 opponent decides to sleep-walk through most of the game, slowly smothering the ‘Cats with a pillow of athleticism.
Then again, misdreavus raised the point in the Slack channel this week—I think it was him and I think it was Slack, but who knows anymore—that it kinda seems like Dan Lanning enjoys being an asshole to people and we don’t really call him on it the same way we do Ryan Day or Frames James. I don’t think Lanning has bulletin-board material from the ‘Cats—unless, a la Tulane, he wants to wear special uniforms marking a tragedy* but only submits the request a week before the game, then declares Northwestern “disrespectful”—but they’re sure capable of running it up anyway.
And—and I can’t emphasize this enough—I do not know where Northwestern’s points are going to come from this season. Oregon, 48-3.
* “We wanted to wear sandy green to mark the 55th anniversary of the Florence exploding whale! Please allow us to wear these special jerseys!” is how I imagine it going down.
RockyMtnBlue: I hate everything about Oregon. I hate their stupid uniform combos. I hate how staggeringly Big10 they’re not. I hate the state itself. But there’s no doubting that team is pretty good and has some killer skill position talent. Northwestern, on the other hand,..well…Northwestern has a football team. Oregon 45-10
Wisconsin Badgers @ (19) Alabama Crimson Tide
11AM | ABC | Alabama -20.5 | O/U 46.5
Straight Up: Alabama 11-0
Against the Spread: Wisconsin 6-5
RUReady4Brazil: Wisconsin had no offense in Week 1, and bounced back nicely in Week 2. Alabama is in the same boat as they went from uninspired to absolutely locked in during the same interval. If the Bulldogs were on the slate a week later it could have been a trap game, but the Tide has a bye after this contest so they won’t look past the Badgers.
Buffkomodo: As much as I would love a Wisconsin win here…they won’t…and it won’t be close.
BRT: Wisconsin isn’t what they used to be, and neither is Alabama. But I still think the Tide rolls.
Larry31: I am unimpressed with Bama and 3 TDs is a huge spread. I don’t believe Bama will be ranked by the end of the year and refuse to believe that any Wisconsin team over the last can’t cover a 3 TD spread over a team that should not be ranked.
misdreavus79: Vegas at large has this as a 21.5 spread, at which point I would have gone with Wisconsin, given that I see them losing by 21 exactly. Though I’m pretty sure I still took Wisconsin to cover in the sheet so I guess we’re going with it. Alabama 42 41, Wisconsin 21
BoilerUp89: Im willing to accept that Alabama isn’t a top 25 team this year even if ESPN isn’t. That doesn’t mean they can’t beat a down wisconsin team pretty easily. 20.5 is a lot so I’ll take the points but its close.
Thumpasaurus: I still don’t have much evidence to show me that Wisconsin isn’t ass. Until they prove me wrong, I’ll continue assuming they are.
MNW: Manifesting. Alabama, 29-8.
RockyMtnBlue: I know Alabama is down this year, but Wisconsin has really looked ungood most of the time. And it’s in Tuscaloosa. Alabama 31-7
Central Michigan Chippewas @ (23) Michigan Wolverines
11AM | BTN | Michigan -27 | O/U 42.5
Straight Up: Michigan 11-0
Against the Spread: Michigan 7-4
RUReady4Brazil: The Chippewas were run over by the Pitt Panthers, so a vengeful Wolverines squad will smell blood.
Buffkomodo: I actually don’t think Michigan can cover this.
BRT: Sure, show us what you’ve got, Michigan. Whatever you do, it’s probably going to freak RMB out.
Larry31: Wow. UM’s $20 million QB looked bad last week. Until he can demonstrate competence, I can’t pick UM to cover a 27-point spread. It’s like watching Iowa.
misdreavus79: I’m sure Underwood will be quite good when it’s all said and done, and, realistically speaking, Oklahoma’s defense is one of the best he’s going to see all season. Still, four touchdowns is a lot. Michigan 35, Central Michigan 13
BoilerUp89: Its a big spread but I have zero faith in any of the directional Michigans.
Thumpasaurus: This has to be the worst collective year for the Directional Michigans. Things are apocalyptic out there. Eastern Michigan may be at the end of the Chris Creighton era, Central has been a disaster for years and Western seems to be running on fumes.
MNW: Honestly, outside Toledo and Ohio, the whole of the MAC looks pretty terrible.
- NIU nearly lost to Holy Cross
- Kent, Akron, Balls, and UMass are all apocalyptically bad
- Did YOU know Eddie George was the coach of Bowling Green? (They’re average for Bowling Green, which is to say “mediocre.”)
- Buffalo is fine, probably, which means something like 7-5 (6-3). Same could go for Miami Hydroxide. One of those two teams will make the MAC Championship over Toledo, somehow, when Jason Candle inexplicably directs the bus driver down the wrong road and a team of cheerleaders loses to Akron on a last-second Zips field goal.
I wonder when the portal and the financials of modern college football make MAC football untenable. It can’t be far off. Michigan, 31-3.
RockyMtnBlue: I am trying not to read too much into one game, but Michigan got absolutely clowned by a pedestrian Oklahoma team. OU had 22 first downs to Michigan’s 12. OU was 9/17 on third down, and 1/1 on fourth. Michigan was 3/14 and 0/1. And here’s the thing: the game wasn’t as close as the stats. This was complete domination and for the first time in years, Michigan looked soft. I mean really soft. ‘21 OSU levels of soft.
We’ve had more than a few questions about Sherrone Moore’s game management, but we thought that was just something you put up with because you loved how he built his teams and a culture of mental toughness. Now the latter isn’t there, and the game management is even worse than we saw before. Seriously. He’s starting to make James Franklin look good.
Michigan will win this game on pure talent gap, and Underwood will make a couple plays that make us drool over what he could be with some experience and a different coaching staff. But next week when Michigan gets smoked in Lincoln, the rest of you will see what many Michigan fans are already seeing. Michigan 24-17
Southern Cal Trojans @ Purdue Boilermakers
2:30PM | CBS / Paramount | USC -20.5 | O/U 58.5
Straight Up: USC 11-0
Against the Spread: USC 7-4
RUReady4Brazil: I am very intrigued at this matchup, not because I am delusional Purdue will win but because I am curious how lethal this USC offense really is. The ceiling is infinite thus far and the Boilers will at least present an actual FBS team on the other sideline. Purdue will host a worse version of the Trojans on October 25, so this may be a super sneak preview.
Buffkomodo: Purdue gets sand blasted, the worst kind of blasting that can occur on Saturdays I’m told.
BRT: trainwreck.gif
Larry31: My pick for USC to cover isn’t so much an indictment of Purdue. I think USC has a prolific offense.
misdreavus79: I mean we all know the over is the real play here. USC 49, Purdue 28
BoilerUp89: ^^^ take the over kids. My heart wants to pick Purdue. USC travels to sleepy West Lafayette where upsets occur with seeming regularity. My head sees that USC has lost 14 straight games played in ET/CT and that traveling east of the Rockies is bad for them. However, I also have eyes. Those eyes tell USC is going to put up POINTS and that Purdue lacks impact players to keep this close let alone pull off the upset. Prove me wrong Boilers.
Thumpasaurus: USC is mid as hell, but Purdue won’t be able to exploit that.
MNW: I just want points. Give me some goddamn points, the two of you. USC, 42-27.
RockyMtnBlue: USC’s offense has been phenomenal. I agree with commenters above who have recommended the over. But USC to cover feels like a good bet, too. USC 56-10
THE Ohio Bobcats @ (1) Ohio State Buckeyes
6PM | Peacock | Ohio State -33.5 | O/U 53.5
Straight Up: Ohio State 11-0
Against the Spread: Ohio State 9-2
RUReady4Brazil: Bobcat fans preseason were adamant they would beat Rutgers or West Virginia. Turns out they were right and luckily was not at my expense. They won’t beat Ohio State but do have both an offense and a defense that can get hot. Their defensive line is undersized and inexperienced so the Buckeyes will bulldoze.
Buffkomodo: Buckeyes. Next.
BRT: OSU going away, but maybe Ohio scores first and we all get to dream of a better world for a little bit.
Larry31: This game has a Death Star vibe.
misdreavus79: It’s possible Ohio State drops another 70, but I’m thinking Ohio might actually not be that bad this year. Is the bobcat still banned from the stadium? Ohio State 49, Ohio 17
BoilerUp89: O-U O-Yeah! Ohio State players are busy participating in mass religious conversions and still celebrating their win over Tejas. The Bobcats are a confident bunch and looking to claim that G5 bid with a 2nd win over a P4 program. I’m almost certainly wrong, but wouldn’t it be cool if I was right? I want to live in that world. Let’s talk it into existence.
Thumpasaurus: Nope.
MNW: It’s not going to be heartening when the MAC front-runners lose by 40 to Ohio State. Buckeyes, 48-7.
RockyMtnBlue: God it would be lovely if BoilerUp89 was right. Alas, while Ohio has been pretty plucky this year, OSU is in full-on Death Star mode. Ohio State 52-6
Western Michigan Broncos @ (9) Illinois Fighting Illini
6PM | FS1 | Illinois -27.5 | O/U 51.5
Straight Up: Illinois 11-0
Against the Spread: Illinois 11-0
RUReady4Brazil: Let’s just get this over with.
Buffkomodo: Illinois. Next.
BRT: Why are there so many Michigans anyway?
Larry31: I think Illinois is underrated not being ranked top-10. Illinois covers.
[Editor’s note: The comments are collected in a word doc, and the rankings are usually from the previous week. Don’t blame Larry.]
misdreavus79: Apparently Illinois is Death Star Jr. this year. Took it right from Indiana. Illinois 56, Western Michigan 3
BoilerUp89: Illini by a lot
Thumpasaurus: Refer to my previous comment on the directional Michigans.Illinois can be had, but not by these guys.
MNW: What a depressing week. And there are still 7 weeks until midweek #MACtion. Illinois, 45-6.
RockyMtnBlue: Oh look! Another giant line. God what a horrible slate. Illinois 38-7
Massachusetts Minutemen @ Iowa Hawkeyes
6:30PM | BTN | Iowa -33.5 | O/U 44.5
Straight Up: Iowa 11-0
Against the Spread: Iowa 6-5
RUReady4Brazil: I grew up with former RU DC, now Minutemen Head Coach Joe Harasymiak. He had his worst game of the 2023 season at Iowa and that was with a solid defense. This year, his first Umass squad is coming off a loss to Bryant … a school many of you outside the Northeast probably never heard of. Even if Iowa turns out to have the worst offense in the Big Ten, they will score and win this game handily.
Buffkomodo: Iowa. Next.
BRT: Iowa has really found the cream of the East so far this season, huh?
Larry31: I am spiritually and morally bound to not pick Iowa to cover Iowa when they are giving 33.5 points, even though UMass absolutely sucks. MIne is a cruel and spiteful football god.
misdreavus79: Even Iowa can’t avoid covering against UMass. Right? RIGHT?! Iowa 40, UMass 3
BoilerUp89: I know Iowa can’t really score but I’m reminded that I didn’t have them covering similarly large spreads against bad teams last year and they did.
Thumpasaurus: UMass is godawful enough to actually fail to cover this against Iowa.
MNW: Stop making me talk about the fucking MAC. For the love of God. STOP. Iowa, 28-0.
RockyMtnBlue: You wanna know how bad UMass is? Iowa’s favored by 33.5 and I think they’ll cover. THAT’S how bad. Iowa 38-0
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ California Golden Bears
9:30PM | ESPN | Minnesota -2.5 | O/U 44.5
Straight Up: Minnesota 9-2
Against the Spread: Minnesota 9-2
RUReady4Brazil: Cal isn’t complete dog poo as some expected preseason, but they still aren’t overly impressive. Minnesota’s ceiling might be limited but even if they play average, they should win without too much pain.
Buffkomodo: Label this as mildly interesting. I think Cal sucks and Minny wins walking away, but still interesting.
BRT: I think Minny struggles and might not have enough positives for even Peej to try to spin post game. But I also have next to no knowledge of Cal.
Larry31: My anti-ACC bias is kicking in. The ACC is simply a conference of 2nd tier football programs in which Maryland would actually be competitive…Wake Forest, NC State, Cuse, Pitt, GaTech, UNC [even with the greatest football mind that ever walk the planet coaching them*], Louisville, Stanford. That’s a lot of mediocrity. Going with Peej to cover.
*this guy never coached a playoff team, let alone won a Super Bowl without Tom Brady. And he seems like a colossal douche of a person.
misdreavus79: I’m going to regret this. Minnesota 20, Cal 10
BoilerUp89: This is interesting because it’s on the road but I think PJ can row to Berkeley. Or at least land close by and walk the rest of the way.
Thumpasaurus: I think MInnesota’s defense is good enough to give Cal Quarterback With Non-Memorizable Last Name his first real challenge of the season
MNW: I am looking at the Cal leading rusher, passer, etc., on ESPN, and you cannot possibly convince me that any of these people are real. Positively fucking absurd.
…what’s that? I took Cal to win?
Well. [/straightens tie, hopes you’ll ignore I’m not wearing any clothes] Darius Taylor is reportedly OUT for Minnesota, and I guess we’ll see if Drake Lindsey can get it done with his arm on the Fault Line. Cal, 17-15.
RockyMtnBlue: Bless Minnesota for scheduling a game against the All California Conference. At least we have one game that might not completely suck. The Fighting Flecks have looked pretty solid. I don’t know anything about Cal and cannot possibly care. I am therefore assuming Minny Big10s their way to a win here. Minnesota 20-14
To Cowardly to Play this Week:
Washington Huskies
RUReady4Brazil: They better use this week of prep not to lose the Apple Cup yet again.
Buffkomodo: Don’t you want maximum chaos?
misdreavus79: That seems early.
To Cowardly to Play an FBS Opponent
(22) Indiana Hoosiers (Indiana State)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (Houston Christian)
Maryland Terrapins (Towson)
(2) Penn State Nittany Lions (Villanova)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Norfolk State)
Michigan State Spartans (Youngstown State)
RUReady4Brazil: Appreciate the timesaver.
Buffkomodo: Well well well. How the turntables turn.
Larry31: These games are the college football equivalent of the last pre-season game of the NFL. Their only purpose is to evaluate and given game experience to the 2s and 3s. The outcome is indeterminate of how good or bad your team is. [Well, plus you get a paid for W, which MD will definitely need to have a chance at bowl eligibility].
misdreavus79: Villanova is No. 2 in FCS so they’re basically an FBS team. I mean they’d probably beat Oklahoma State 69-3 too.
BoilerUp89: Indiana State should have folded their program by now. They lost to Walters. By a lot!
Answers
Correct answer was “Wow, what a sensible amount of butter, MNW.”
