It is not a hot take to believe the Phillies should sign free agent Bo Bichette to a free agent contract. The reasons why it would be a brilliant on-field move are legion.
The 27-year-old shortstop was leading the American League in hits before he went on the Injured List with a bad leg, but when he left, he was hitting .311/.357/.583 for an .840 OPS, with 18 HRs, 94 RBIs and 44 doubles. He was worth 3.5 WAR in 139 games. He had a strangely disastrous 2024 in which he was one of the worst players
in baseball (-0.3 WAR, .598 OPS), but previously twice led the AL in hits (2021, 2022) and has had seasons in which he was worth 5.9, 3.7 and 4.8 WAR (2021-23).
He’s a terrific contact hitter with some pop who rarely strikes out (14.5% in 2025, 19.4% career) and posted a hard-hit rate of 48.8% a season ago. He would, quite simply, be the perfect person to place behind Bryce Harper in the No. 4 slot in the lineup.
Why are we talking so much about Bichette all of a sudden?
Aaaaaaand we’re off to the races!
In a vacuum, adding Bichette makes all the sense in the world, but there are significant financial hurdles that makes a deal with the former Blue Jay all but seemingly impossible. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon note in their Athletic story out Wednesday that should the Phils sign him, the luxury tax penalty would essentially double any free agent’s salary in terms of real-world cash John Middleton must pay out.
Any team that exceeds the base luxury-tax threshold for three or more consecutive years pays a 50 percent penalty for every dollar it goes above. Any team that exceeds the base threshold by $60 million or more pays an additional 60 percent surcharge…
…Three other teams – the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees – are one major move away from the 110 percent bracket. The Phillies, within $4 million of the highest threshold, are closest, per Fangraphs. If they re-sign free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto, they would pay 110 percent on most of his salary. If they added a top free agent on top of that, they would pay the full 110 percent. But after this season, they will gain considerable payroll flexibility.
The luxury tax is likely why the Phils are unwilling to increase whatever offer is on the table for J.T. Realmuto. If they sign him to a $15 million a year contract, it will actually be closer to $25-30 million, depending on how much of his deal goes over that third tax. If Bichette were to sign a $25 million a year deal, it would essentially be a $50 million deal for 2026.
As Rosenthal and Sammon note, the Phils do get some payroll relief this off-season. Unless a team foolishly trades for Nick Castellanos and/or Taijuan Walker between now and spring training, the Phillies will be on the hook for their salaries in ‘26. They would shed $38 million AAV in 2027 once they depart. Alec Bohm will likely make around $10 million this season. Adding Bichette would almost certainly necessitate a trade of Bohm (or Bryson Stott and his $8 million contract) elsewhere, but that would only provide small relief to what would be a hefty tax burden this season.
I know what you’re saying, “It’s not our money, spend it!” I agree with you. But as we discussed on the most recent Hittin’ Season podcast, we have to live in the same world in which John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski exist.
Moving the roster deck chairs around to make room for Bichette would be tricky, but a manageable task for a future Hall of Fame baseball operations man like Dombrowski. Certainly he could find a taker for Bohm, even if the return isn’t all he’d hoped it would be. There appears to be no help coming for the outfield other than Adolis Garcia and maybe a potential right-handed platoon bat to pair with Brandon Marsh, but on the infield, there are possibilities.
The last time the Phillies made an unexpected splash signing was late in 2022 off-season when Dombrowski inked Castellanos to his five-year deal. Adding Bichette would go a long way towards easing the unsettled hearts of a fanbase desperate to see another impact bat added to the offense.
But it would be an utter shock if they do.
