Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 1 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: DATCU Stadium — Denton, TX
- Spread: North Texas (-6.5)
- Over/under: 65.5
- All-time series: Navy leads, 2-0
- Last meeting: Navy 27, North Texas 24 — October 7, 2023
- Current streak: Navy, 2 (2007-23)
Setting the scene
Although College GameDay didn’t make the trip to Denton, this matchup is as marquee as it gets in Week 9.
Not only is there rich history involved as Navy’s 74-62 win in the 2007 meeting in Denton set the FBS
single-game scoring record which stood until 2016. The teams converge in Denton, albeit a different venue for the first time since, operating as American Conference contenders, and by association, College Football Playoff contenders — with Heisman contenders as their quarterbacks.
Blake Horvath and Drew Mestemaker continue to light up stat sheets on a weekly basis. Horvath is a major reason Navy is 7-0 as one of six remaining unbeatens, while Mestemaker’s incredible story has North Texas at 7-1. With the quarterbacks executing at their respective levels, are we in for another scoring record?
Navy Midshipmen outlook
Navy (7-0, 5-0 American) is 7-0 for the first time since 1978. Despite operating as one of six undefeated teams heading into Week 10, the Midshipmen are unranked, mainly as a product of the schedule. The only .500+ team Navy outlasted to date was 5-3 Temple on the road, but a gauntlet of four-straight 6-2/7-1 teams awaits. North Texas marks the greatest test for Brian Newberry and his squad as they look to qualify for the American Championship for the first time since 2016.
Navy earned 10 wins last year, and quarterback Blake Horvath was a significant reason for it. In 2024, Horvath recorded six games with 110+ rushing yards and at least one touchdown, and he now rides a 5-game streak of generating that stat-line. The Heisman candidate is fresh off a season-high 174 rushing yards and career-high four rushing touchdowns in a masterclass vs. Florida Atlantic. He ranks eighth in the country and first among quarterbacks in rushing, needed 186 yards for a second-straight 1,000-yard season.
But Horvath is more than a glorified running back. When Navy needs him to sling it, he can star in that area as well. Such was the case vs. Air Force at the start of October, and Horvath delivered one of the best passing performances in program history with 336 yards and three touchdowns on a 20-of-26 showing. Horvath leads an explosive passing game which averages 17.7 yards per completion, and it revolves around the talents of Eli Heidenreich.
Navy’s all-time leading receiver, Heidenreich has 507 yards on 25 receptions as an effective deep threat, nearly quadrupling the receiving output of any other Midshipmen player. He also doubles as a tertiary threat in the run game with 285 yards on a 7.0 average, ranking fourth on the unit in production. Navy’s option attack is first in the FBS in rushing, also featuring the talents of fullback Alex Tecza and running back Brandon Chatman. Tecza has punished teams up the middle with 464 yards on the season while Chatman is fresh off his career-best game with 140 yards vs. FAU.
The Midshipmen seek improvement on the defensive side of the ball after surrendering over 30 points in three-consecutive wins. Navy boasts a viable run defense, but countering the air has been difficult for the Midshipmen. They let up 257 passing yards per contest to check in at 118th in the FBS. During the last three games, a typically ground-based Air Force produced 249 passing yards, Temple piled on 345, and FAU added 381.
Despite the shortcomings in the aerial defense, there is no lack of individual talent on this Navy defense. Defensive tackle Landon Robinson is a lock for all-conference honors as an impressive athletic specimen on the interior, using his unique speed and strength combo to produce 5.5 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss. MarcAnthony Parker excels from the inside linebacker spot with 59 stops and 5.5 tackles behind the line of scrimmage.
Navy will be on the lookout for interceptions. The Midshipmen have only picked off four passes all year, and that’s a proven formula to defeating North Texas. Three of the four Mean Green interceptions thrown in 2025 transpired in their lone defeat to South Florida in the same venue they’re playing Saturday.
North Texas Mean Green outlook
North Texas (7-1, 3-1 American) already produced its first winning season since 2018, serving as the surprise contender crashing the American Conference title race and sitting on the fringe of the AP Poll. Head coach Eric Morris is renowned as an offensive savant for his time working with Patrick Mahomes and Cam Ward, and Morris is currently leading the nation’s No. 1 ranked scoring offense in Denton at 46.1 points per game.
The Mean Green lost nearly all its top contributors from a third-ranked yards per game offense a year ago, yet the unit remains as lethal as ever. The rise of quarterback Drew Mestemaker is a reason for this, and Mestemaker is currently second in the FBS with 2,468 passing yards. His story is well-documented, not starting a single game between ninth grade and the 2024 First Responder Bowl. Yet, he is as dominant as any quarterback in college football this year, passing the eye test with his high-level throws and filling the stat sheet. Last week, he exploded for 608 yards — the 17th-best passing performance in FBS and only the third 600+ yard game of the 2020s.
In true Mestemaker fashion, he delivered four touchdowns and did it with 75.5 percent efficiency, raising his season completion rate to an impressive 68.2. Another quality of his game which allows North Texas’ offense to shine is his lack of turnovers. Mestemaker only has four interceptions through eight starts, and three of them transpired in the lone defeat to South Florida. North Texas still generated 36 points in that loss, but a slew of turnovers prevented the Mean Green from reaching their astronomical season average.
The redshirt freshman quarterback is spoiled with weapons all around him. True freshman running back Caleb Hawkins is another pleasant surprise, rushing for 130 yards twice this year and averaging 6.2 yards per game, all while operating as an effective receiver. North Texas hopes to return Makenzie McGill at running back, but Kiefer Sibley shined with increased utilization last week to the tune of 71 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 10 attempts.
At receiver, the Mean Green thrive on an even distribution. The top three options — Wyatt Young, Cameron Dorner, and Miles Coleman — all possess between 30-35 receptions on the season. Young is the most explosive of the three with a team-high 586 yards and seven touchdowns on a 16.7 average. Coleman missed the last week and could return vs. Navy, but North Texas presents strong receiver depth even beyond its top three with names like Landon Sides, Simeon Evans, and Dalton Carnes.
North Texas’ defense is vastly improved — another significant reason the Mean Green are 7-1. The Mean Green limited two consecutive conference opponents to 20 points or fewer, overcoming slower defensive starts and allowing a combined six second half points over that two-game stretch. Their 120th-ranked run defense could use some improvement, but North Texas is often money against the pass.
Where the defense truly shines is in the turnover battle. North Texas’ 17 takeaways rank third in the FBS, and the team often cashes them in for points. Second-leading tackler and inside linebacker Trey Fields has two fumble recoveries and an interception, while starting strong safety Will Jones has two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries in a defense that thrives on havoc.
Prediction
We may not reach the 74-62 level scoring of 2007, but all signs point to a shootout between the teams with star quarterbacks and a combined 14-1 record. Navy continues to win games despite allowing over 30 points on a weekly basis, and there’s nobody more capable than generating over 30 than North Texas’ No. 1 ranked scoring offense. And last time the Mean Green faced an offense of this caliber, they surrendered 63 at home to South Florida. Navy should benefit on North Texas’ run defense struggles, while North Texas can capitalize on Navy’s imperfect aerial defense.
The result will be over three hours of trading touchdowns before a winner is ultimately decided. Drew Mestemaker leads a late drive to pick up that signature conference victory that could ultimately position the Mean Green for a spot in the American Championship Game.
Prediction: North Texas 42, Navy 38
