Welcome to Part II of my way-too-early, team-by-team fantasy look-ahead for this coming season, in the form of what I see as the biggest question for each NFL squad from a fantasy standpoint.
You can find the first installment (NFC East) here, which of course includes the Giants. As I mentioned in that column, a record 10 NFL teams have new Head Coaches for the 2026 season, and 21 teams have new Offensive Coordinators, so multiple NFL offenses could look a lot different this season. Throw in free
agency, the NFL draft, trades, and roster cuts, and there will be many more changes to consider before fantasy draft season arrives. We’ll deal with all of that as the offseason rolls on. For now, I’m asking questions based on what we know today.
This installment covers the AFC East, and then I’ll start tackling two divisions at a time. The AFC East is like Dickens’s A Tale of Two Cities — the best of times, and the worst of times. It features two excellent teams that have stud QBs and are among the top contenders to represent the conference in the Super Bowl, and two struggling teams that are rebuilding, don’t have an answer at QB on the current roster, and are huge longshots to make the playoffs.
To put it in terms everyone can understand, here are the current FanDuel odds to win the division – BUF: -120, NE: +130, MIA: +2000, NYJ: +2200. To put that in perspective, there are only four teams in the entire league with division odds at +1000 or worse, and the AFC East has half of them, with both at +2000 or worse. Only Arizona (+3000) has longer division odds than the Dolphins and Jets. Should I put $10 on Miami to win $200? Hmm.
From a fantasy standpoint, the East has this flex: It had the two highest scorers in all of fantasy last season (#1 Josh Allen, 375 points, and #2 Drake Maye, 343 points). And in Allen it boasts the undisputed top dog in fantasy across the last six seasons. But overall, it’s among the weakest divisions in terms of fantasy firepower. A prediction: Among all divisions, the AFC East will have the fewest number of RBs, WRs, and TEs with an Average Draft Position (ADP) inside the Top-60 (roughly, the first five rounds of fantasy drafts).
Teams are listed in order of finish from last season. All fantasy rankings are for Half-PPR scoring, on a fantasy points per game basis (FPPG), with Week 18 excluded.
AFC East
New England Patriots.
QUESTION: Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson?
I’m tempted to ask a question about the receiving corps, such as “How likely is a Kayshon Boutte breakout in year two?”, and especially after the announced release of Stefon Diggs. However, I think the top fantasy producer on this team outside of Maye is going to be a running back. But which one? Will they share the work so evenly that neither one emerges as a Top-20 RB? It’s also worth considering how much a significantly tougher schedule will factor in.
If you asked fantasy analysts this question last August, most would have said Henderson, on the assumption that his talent would result in him taking over the backfield by Halloween at the latest, and especially if Stevenson was putting the ball on the ground early in the season. Most might again say that now, as we head into the 2026 season.
Henderson took a while to get going as a rookie, and outside of three games that Stevenson missed in the middle of the season (where Henderson went off, and broke multiple long TDs), Stevenson got more work, and especially in the playoffs where Mike Vrabel leaned heavily on him.
For the season (including playoffs), Stevenson out-snapped Henderson 718-584, despite missing three games. During the regular season, Henderson out-touched Stevenson 215-162, but across four playoff games, Stevenson got double the workload: 58 carries and 12 receptions to just 30 and 5 for Henderson. You can see why I’m asking this question.
Henderson will likely have the higher ADP once again, as he’s the sexier pick. He’s more explosive, was drafted by the current regime, and the team used a high second round pick to get him. But Stevenson isn’t going anywhere, is trusted by the coaching staff, was the better of the two in pass protection last season, can grind out tough yards, and again, he dominated touches in the post-season which has to mean something. Barring injury, the two could again end up very close in usage and FPPG. This could be a situation where both backs are lower-end RB2/Flex starts, but with capped upside given the committee approach. Or one could dominate touches.
Buffalo Bills.
QUESTION: Can this team produce a legitimate fantasy WR1 or TE1?
It’s a little hard to believe that the Bills can be a top offense year after year, with Josh Allen putting up season after season as the QB1 or QB2, all while none of Buffalo’s pass-catchers perform as every-week fantasy starters. But that’s been the case since Stefon Diggs left town. This big news just in: The Bills announced a trade with Chicago for D.J. Moore on Thursday, and there will be high expectations for him to be the team’s best pass-catching weapon since Diggs. Moore has had some big moments in Chicago and Carolina, but hasn’t always been consistent, in part due to his surroundings. Being paired with Allen and new HC Joe Brady, on a team with less target competition, figures to be his best situation so far.
Moore joins a unit that has been underwhelming. Khalil Shakir (WR40 in 2025, at 8.1 FPPG, WR37 in 2025, at 9.6 FPPG) has been the most consistent option in the passing game, but he’s been a low-end Flex option, at best. Dalton Kincaid was a borderline TE1 in 2025, but he missed five games after missing four the year before and continues to leave fantasy managers frustrated and wanting more. Is this the season he breaks out? Can Keon Coleman be salvaged, or does the addition of Moore signal that the team has mostly given up on him? Time will tell, but for now Moore is the best bet to flourish, and he probably will be costly in drafts.
Miami Dolphins.
QUESTION: Can De’Von Achane produce RB1 numbers without Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa?
Achane is coming off his best campaign. He finished as the RB5 in 2025 (18.1 FPPG), and topped 15 fantasy points 12 times in the 16 games he played (he missed Week 18). That’s the kind of consistent high-end production that fantasy managers love. His 145 receptions over the past two seasons lead all running backs.
That all sounds great, and it’s why the electric Achane will almost certainly have an ADP in the Top-10 when August rolls around. But I’m proceeding with caution. His splits with and without Tua at QB in 2024 were as Jekyll and Hyde as it gets. He was the RB1 in games Tua started, and barely playable in those he missed. Tua got the ball out fast and when nothing was there he often checked it down to Achane. He was also a player that McDaniel coveted in the draft, and the coach made him a centerpiece of the offense. That should continue, but Achane is a smaller back who has had his share of injuries.
Achane has a fantastic skillset, but it’s hard to know how he’ll be used by the new coaching staff, and whether he’ll be as heavily targeted in the passing game. Miami’s offense could take a pretty big hit across the board with the departure of McDaniel, and with uncertainty at QB. If the price on Achane is a Top-10 pick, I’ll likely pass.
New York Jets.
QUESTION: Should fantasy managers simply avoid all Jets at ADP in 2026?
If you think this is a question where the answer can’t possibly be NO, think again. The 2025 Jets’ offense was the league’s 29th ranked unit in both total offense and points scored, and with all due respect to the Raiders and Browns, it may have been the absolute worst from a fantasy standpoint, with basically nobody who was a steady performer or who returned value against his ADP. To put it in terms we can all understand, they stunk.
Justin Fields got benched midway through the season (after four starts where he failed to top 100 passing yards), Garrett Wilson got hurt in early October, and Breece Hall (RB21, 11.9 FPPG) could only do so much on such a dysfunctional and talent-starved offense. Here’s how bad it was: Wilson didn’t catch a pass after he g0t hurt in Week 6, and he still led the team in receiving for the season, with 395 yards. Read that again – it’s the most hard-to-believe of many “say what?!?” Jets stats from 2025, outside of the team becoming the first in NFL history to not record an interception.
Hall (who got the franchise tag on Tuesday) and Wilson are gifted players, and could be nice values if the Jets can trot out a serviceable QB and a semi-competent offense. Those are two HUGE ifs, friends. This could again be an offense to mostly avoid for fantasy in 2026.
That’s it for the AFC East. Coming next: The North divisions, so keep it here.
