Before we get into specific candidates for Astros manager it pays to take a look at the demographic information that the other 29 managers fit. We are looking at three relevant factors as it pertains to managers. We are looking at their current age as they sit and whether managing has become a young man’s game. We are looking at whether they were experienced prior to taking the job. We are finally looking at whether the manager had a prominent playing career at the big league level.
Age Factors
It’s important
to look at data from all different kinds of angles. One can simply look at the numerical mean and that tells us a lot, but it doesn’t tell us anything. Rudimentary statistics also tell us that range is an important issue. Plus, we might want to look at the various ages graphed out because they clumps will tell us something the mean may not. Often times, an extreme outlier or two can impact the mean. So, let’s start with the basics and ignore rudimentary mean.
Oldest manager: Pat Murphy 67
Youngest manager: Blake Butera 34
Managers in their 60s: 6
Managers in their 50s: 8
Managers in their 40s: 13
Managers in their 30s: 2
I should point out that Joe Espada was left off of this list, but every other team is represented even if their manager was let go like the Red Sox, Angels, and Mariners because we are looking at the 2026 universe. If one were searching for a medan then the median would almost certainly be 49 which also is likely to be pretty close to the numerical mean.
How many had prior experience?
Out of the 29 managers that are currently or formerly employed, only five had previous big league experience before taking their current job. We should probably take a look at those five managers to get a handle on who they are and whether they have been more successful. Obviously, A.J. Hinch is the first one that comes to mind. We know what he did in Houston and he has had mixed success in Detroit.
Craig Counsell and Terry Francona represent the NL Central. Counsell signed almost as a free agent with the Chicago Cubs ironically from the Milwaukee Brewers. Counsell has certainly won more games than he has lost in Chicago, but Milwaukee obviously got better when he left. Francona has had mixed results in Cincinnati after being brilliant in Cleveland. Most people would probably classify him as a failure, but they also have fewer resources than the other clubs that routinely win.
Don Mattingly took over last season in Philadelphia and signed a two year extension. He took the team from the duldrums early in the year to qualify for the playoffs. They flamed out once they got there and it remains to be seen if he has staying power. Otherwise, that is pretty much it. So, getting an experienced manager is actually rarer than we may have thought and their success is actually fairly mixed. So, maybe we need to tamp on the breaks before demanding an experienced manager.
Past playing experience
This is the one that probably seems to be the big push. However, perception and reality are often different, so we should probably check this out. I will place players into three categories. You have star players that probably attended at least one all-star game, players that were regulars or semi-regulars for a long time, and then those that had a cup of coffee.
Star players: Aaron Boone, Stephen Vogy, Mark Kotsay, Kurt Suzuki, Walt Weiss, Don Mattingly,
Regular Players: Dave Roberts, Torey Lovullo, Craig Stammen, Terry Francona, Craig Counsell, Skip Schumaker, Will Venable
Minor players: Kevin Cash, Alex Cora, A,J. Hinch, Don Kelly
So, the list of managers that were former players is pretty extensive. Now, some of you will certainly question some of these categories and that is fine. The category isn’t so important. I wouldn’t necessarily consider Kotsay a star player for instance. Suzuki might also be a stretch there. One thing is for certain, not a one is a Hall of Fame player and that is interesting to say the least.
So, by my count more than half of the managers in baseball had somewhat significant careers. That makes sense, but it is not an overwhelming majority. I’m sure if we added in the ones that played minor league baseball we would get over 20 that had played professionally. What is interesting is when you put some of these categories together. The number of managers being hired in their forties for the first time that had recently played is on the rise.
What does all of this mean?
I think it means a couple of things. First for foremost, many of us were clamoring for managers that had managed in the big leagues before. So far, Brad Ausmus is the one significant interview that matches that qualification. I was one of those clamoring for an experienced manager, but given the demographic information above, maybe that is not really the best direction to go.
If we are going to demographics and to trends, then finding someone in their forties that had significant big league experience as a player would be a go to strategy. Names have included Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Daniel Descalso, Morgan Ensberg, Benji Gil, and Jon Jay. Obviously, I could do a deep dive into their playing careers, but we know very little about how any of them would manage a clubhouse. Someone like a Randy Flores has familiarity with some of them, so he would be in a better position to know and you would hope that some of it would come out in the interview process.
I stated my piece earlier on Joe Espada on multiple occasions. One of the frustrations was that he really didn’t do a good job of controlling the clubhouse. This particularly manifested itself in the Framber Valdez meltdown but also manifested itself in the numerous mental errors the Astros seemed to make on the bases or in the field. The new guy will have to command respect and it seems that a former player would have the upper hand there. Then, we get the strategic questions with the lineup, load management, and pitching staff that we simply won’t know until we know. That can be frustrating and answers may come in the interview process but hypotheticals and real life tend to differ at times. However, a former player has navigated the lineups and load management on the player side, so hopefully they would have some insight there.
There are names that potentially excite me and names that give me pause. All that being said, we on the outside are not in a position to know how these interviews are going and whether any of the individuals bring the personality and the attention to detail necessary to do the job well. We will have to trust Flo to make the best hire. The possibilities are many and hopefully we will see something within the next couple of weeks.
