24 years into this thing and I can’t remember a single time when ESPN boldly stated the Houston Texans were Super Bowl bound. But, here we are.
Over at ESPN.com, writer Benjamin Solak dropped his 10 predictions for 2026 NFL season. Lo and behold, prediction #4, right after Chiefs missing the playoffs, we get this gem:
The Texans will win the AFC
It feels like many people are selling Texans stock following C.J. Stroud‘s playoff disaster class in 2025. I’m happy to scoop it all up at a discount.
If the Texans really do give Stroud
a good ground game in the 2026 season, it’ll be the first one he has had. Since he entered the league in 2023, the Texans are 31st in both rushing success rate and EPA per rush. This doesn’t just allow opposing pass rushes to tee off against Stroud or lighten the box to flood coverages downfield. It also dulls the edge of Houston’s stupendous defense, as the team can’t grind the clock away on offense with a reliable rushing attack.
Lost in the bluster of the Seahawks’ Super Bowl run was just how well the Texans’ defense was playing. Houston was second to Seattle in points per drive allowed by a hair (1.48 to 1.52). By success rate, the Texans were the fifth-best passing defense of the past 15 seasons. I’d call it a once-in-a-decade defense if not for the fact the Seahawks and Broncos put up similarly spectacular numbers.
Somehow, Houston lost nobody from this defense. Last season’s 11 leading snap getters are all back and healthy for 2026, and the Texans added another starter in free agent safety Reed Blankenship. He should fill a traditional box safety role that was perhaps the only below-average position on the entire depth chart. The player with the most snaps no longer on the roster (Derek Barnett, 388) is currently a free agent — the Texans could bring him back if they wanted to.
It’s hard to get my head around the potential of the Texans’ defense in 2026. This isn’t a defense that opposing offenses can solve in an offseason, either. They run a basic menu of coverages and don’t try to hide their hand much. It’s not a sneaky schemed-up system with yet-undiscovered weak points. The Texans are just bigger and faster and more talented than you, and if that ever stops working, they hit unbelievably hard.
The Texans are absolutely capable of authoring a 2025 Seahawks-esque season, and we know where that ends up. The loaded AFC makes such a route harder, but the Texans’ offense also has a ceiling higher than what the 2025 Seahawks offense reached. If the biggest impediment to a deep run is simply not getting the worst of Stroud we’ve ever seen … I’ll make that bet.
It’s hard for Texans lifers to get onboard this level of positive hype. Mainly because we’ve all seen David Carr, Brock Osweiler, Bill O’Brien, Jack Easterby and all the other names that make us cringe plastered all over the national headlines one time too many. Don’t even bring up the “Matt Schaub tries to set Pick 6 record” narrative… ugh.
And with those headlines comes a sour grapes mindset, a glass half empty point of view. But, the NFL is littered with stories of teams that never won anything before suddenly turning into dynasties. The Pittsburgh Steelers of the 70s, San Francisco 49ers of the 80s/90s, New England Patriots of the 00s/10s, and a few more. Are we on the cusp of the Texans time? Have Demeco Ryans and Nick Caserio built a team that will play for, and win, a championship? Multiple championships? We won’t know for awhile.
For now though, the only headline that matters is:
The Texans will win the AFC
Will they? Or are we waiting for next season before this one starts? Only time will tell. But, one thing is for sure: This preseason hits different. In a good way. So, grab your Houston Texans gear, strap in and get ready for a wild ride.
