How will the Yankees fare in September?

ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 31: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees smiles on the field before the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on August 31, 2026 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images The dog days of August are over and the

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What is the story about?

The dog days of August are over and the final month of the MLB regular season has arrived. Leading the Wild Card race, the Yankees are in good shape to return to the playoffs for the ninth time in the last decade (and 27th time in 32 years dating back to 1995), but they have a tall task ahead if they want to run down the surprising Rays for the division title and a first-round bye. Otherwise, a likely Wild Card Series rematch with the Red Sox awaits, with the winner behind the eight-ball in terms

of pitching before they square off with Tampa Bay in the ALDS — the same scenario that the Yankees got burned by in 2025 with Toronto.

But let’s ponder the AL East for a second and be hopeful. FanGraphs gives the Yankees a 16.9-percent chance of winning the division. That’s not great, but 2025 AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh is hitting .171, so consider the odds about the same as Raleigh getting a hit in a given at-bat this year. Unlikely, but not impossible! Here’s how Yankees’ September lines up:

September 1-2: @ Angels
September 4-6: @ Padres
September 8-10: vs. Rockies
September 11-13: vs. Mets
September 14-16: @ Twins
September 18-20: @ Diamondbacks
September 22-24: vs. Rays (doubleheader on 9/23)
September 25-27: vs. Orioles

That’s 24 games. If they win, say, two-thirds to take 16, then they’ll need the Rays to only win 11 of their 25 to fully make up the deficit (unless they can sweep that four-game set against Tampa Bay to get the tiebreaker, which I’m not counting on). It’s a tall task, and while I have skepticism about the Rays, in my gut, I don’t think they’re a team that will have a losing month. I actually am optimistic enough on the Bombers that they can get a 16-win month against that batch. My concern is that—like their 18-win September 2025—it might not be enough.

But despite that missed opportunity last night, I can hope! Remember when the 2017 Dodgers were on an absurd win pace and then utterly bombed in September? And this Rays team is no 2017 Dodgers. What do you think?

Today on the site, Dani will discuss the new SB Nation app that just came out to help make your experience on the site (and others around SBN) much smoother! We’ll also have Michael’s weekly minor league report, Madison on the Rivalry Roundup, Kento on the birthday of a forgotten Yankee who starred at Dartmouth long before Ben Rice, Peter’s monthly GM poll, and Jonathan and Matt on our monthly check-ins on the AL Central and AL West, respectively.

As a programming note, there’s no minor-league recap today because none of the Yankees’ affiliates were in action.