The San Francisco Giants will be sellers at this year’s trade deadline and while they have some obvious “chips,” “chits,” or “pieces,” I figured it’d be a better conversation starter to rank them, as the perception of a player’s value will surely not be uniform across the fandom or even just those who read this post.
Now, it was only yesterday that I joined the community here by saying that the Giants should not rebuild, and while being sellers at the trade deadline doesn’t necessarily follow a philosophical
shift from “trying to sneak into the postseason by accidentally getting the third Wild Card” to TANKING, I want to be ideologically consistent. This post isn’t to say that the Giants should be willing to move anybody on the roster, it’s just to rank the value *I* perceive players to have should the Giants decide to move them.
So, here are the 10 most valuable players the Giants could move before this year’s trade deadline.
10. Tyler Mahle
Look, I’m with you. He’s been terrible. The 1-7 record and 6.04 ERA gets the season ticketholders riled up, but it’s that 4.86 FIP (tied for 8th-worst in MLB with Zac Gallen) that really underscores how terrible he’s been. His 10.0 hits per 9 innings is explained away by the Giants being bad on defense, but the 1.7 HR/9 and 3.8 BB/9 are much closer to his career averages when the small sample size of 56.2 innings and context of his situation (being on one of the worst Giants teams in the long history of the franchise) are taken into account.
And I’ll add that Aaron Civale, he of the 4.91 ERA and 5.59 FIP in just 22 MLB innings last season, wound up being traded around this time last season by the Milwaukee Brewers — who had acquired him the previous season from the Tampa Bay Rays — to the Chicago White Sox for… Andrew Vaughn, one of the key figures in Milwaukee’s lineup these days.
Of course, Buster Posey isn’t the savvy operator that Brewers’ POBO Matt Arnold is nor are the Giants a big unlocker of hitting talent. Milwaukee really isn’t, either, but they are such a well run organization by comparison that simply getting Vaughn off a struggling team like the White Sox and onto a good team like the Brewers really did seem to reset his talent. It’s an interesting situation to note because the White Sox also had current Giant Adrian Houser on their roster last year and seemed to help him revitalize his career (2.10 ERA in 68.2 IP) to the point that they were able to trade him to Tampa Bay.
Mahle would have some value to teams because of his strikeouts (9.1 K/9 is right in line with his career average) and all of the under the hood numbers indicate that he’s still the same guy when healthy — he’s just never healthy. But he would also be more valuable than Houser in a trade scenario because he doesn’t have the extra year attached to him, unlike Houser. That fact might be moot if there’s a lockout, but Houser hasn’t pitched much better than Mahle to merit extra consideration, I think.
The Giants might not be able to get a middle of the lineup tarnished figure a la Vaughn for him, but there’s some dinged up value to be exchanged for dinged up value here.
9. Jung Hoo Lee
There are 64 hitters currently hitting 20% or better than the league average and one of them is Jung Hoo Lee. But to put it another, better way: there are 32 hitters aged 27 or younger currently hitting 20% or better than the league average and one of them is Jung Hoo Lee.
His age plus position plus hitting ability makes him valuable. Weighted against him are some big negatives:
- An extensive injury history
- An $18.833 CBT number through 2029, as he’s unlikely to opt out after this season
- Average defense, no stolen bases
And did I mention that he has an $18.833 CBT number through 2029? Oh, I did. Well, it’s even worse than that. Because of the structure of his deal, he’s owed $64.25 million after this season, $79.75 million if you factor in what’s left of his contract this season.
That’s a lot of money for a player who could still go either way in his career. That’s right, there’s still a good chance that he winds up hitting his way into a 3-win player over the next few years as the Giants hoped when they signed him. Another team might be able to unlock more consistency with better coaching and scouting, but with such an extensive cost attached to him, the Giants might not be able to get too much back in return, making him less valuable to trade.
On the other hand, here are the worst hitting outfields in MLB right now:
30. Brewers, 79 wRC+
29. Phillies, 80 wRC+
28. Rays, 80 wRC+
27. White Sox, 82 wRC+
26. Padres, 84 wRC+
25. Marlins, 84 wRC+
24. Astros, 87 wRC+
23. Giants, 89 wRC+
22. Reds, 91 wRC+
21. Athletics, 92 wRC+
Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, and San Diego are almost certainly locks for the postseason, while the Phillies, White Sox, Astros, and Reds are extremely in the mix. With a looming lockout plus salary cap on the horizon, I’m not sure what the risk appetite will be, but if there’s a cap then there’s going to be a floor, and you could envision a scenario where the Rays, Reds, or Marlins add Lee just to help get them to a theoretical floor sooner… with the Giants kicking in some money to get back a decent prospect or two.
A bad example that still might apply. Back in 2024, the Mariners acquired Randy Arozarena (2.5 years on deal) from the Rays in exchange for their #12 and #22 prospects plus a player to be named later. Another bad example might be when the Marlins traded Jazz Chisholm (2.5 years on deal) to the Yankees back in 2024. They received the Yankees’ #19 & #20 prospects plus an infielder.
A player with 3.5 years remaining on his deal with a nonzero possibility of opting out this offseason certainly limits a potential return, but given that he’s not one of Buster’s guys and the Giants needing to create some payroll flexibility, I’d say there’s a version of reality where a deal is possible and the Giants would get something in return that might be useful but would certainly be extra money they’ll need in the future.
8. Rafael Devers
In this morning’s Power Alley on SiriusXM radio, Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden talked about the Milwaukee Brewers and how the NL Central is theirs. They also pointed out that as good as they are in terms of winning a division, they’re going to struggle against the Dodgers and Atlanta come the postseason, suggesting they’re one starting pitcher short after Jacob Misioroski and Kyle Harrison and need a middle of the order bat, too. Bowden said something to the effect of “Now, they can’t afford it, but imagine them trading for Rafael Devers and dropping him into the middle of their lineup.”
Would the Giants trade Rafael Devers? I think so. He would be a great near-term value add for a lot of teams out there. I think there might be a behind the scenes scenario where the Giants, in trying to impress their new investors with their fiscal responsibility, might be looking to cut costs on a dead season as quickly as possible. Devers is owed a lot of money for a long time, so, this would be another situation where the Giants would probably need to eat some of the contract, which might be a problem unto itself, or it might be a situation where they get back another team’s problem contract just to balance the books in the near-term; but in any case, I can see another team wanting to make Buster Posey look bad by trading for Devers for even less than what the Giants gave up to get him.
I can also see the Giants figuring they need to hold on to Devers because his bat is meaningfully better than what they have on hand for the time being, and if they’re going to be good again next season or the season after, they’ll probably need him to stick around. So, moving him might hurt the team more than it helps, but I’ll put him low on this list because I think he should be on it. Just in case!
7. Keaton Winn
The Giants should try to move a 28-year old with an injury track record but who’s having a great start to a season (2.45 ERA / 2.80 FIP in 25.2 IP) in a new role as quickly as possible. Including him along with another player on the list might help boost a return, too. Just take a look at last year’s trades to see the reliever duos traded.
6. Robbie Ray
Before the start of the season, he absolutely would’ve been #1 or #2 on this list, but he has pitched so poorly this season that it’s clear the haul will be quite minimal. His 4.45 BB/9 is worst in the National League for starting pitchers (3rd in all of MLB) and his 5.37 FIP is third-worst in MLB behind Jamison Taillon and Ryne Nelson.
He’ll also be owed about $12.5 million the rest of the season, so, a team acquiring him would really need pitching and Ray will have had to string together some starts reminiscent of his best work. Last year, the Padres acquired Nestor Cortes from the Brewers in exchange for backup outfielder Brandon Lockridge. Now, Lockridge is hitting .294/.368/.341 for Milwaukee this season, so it’s not like they got nothing back for Cortes (who was by that point a journeyman several seasons removed from being an All-Star). I’m not sure Ray’s value has tumbled that low, but I’m putting him so low on this list because it feels like that might be more true than not.
5. Erik Miller
Lefty relievers who throw hard are always valuable and especially around trade deadlines. Look, Erik Miller is not is not is not Tanner Scott, but Tanner Scott has been traded twice in his career. After 156 innings of 4.73 ERA ball, the Orioles traded him to the Marlins for three minor leaguers (none of whom panned out). With the Marlins, he had ERAs of 4.31, 2.31, and 1.75 across 212.2 IP and wound up being traded to the Padres along with another pitching prospect for the Padres’ #2, #4, and #5 prospects.
The 28-year old miller is, again, NOT Tanner Scott, and has an extensive injury history that chews into the remaining value, but if the Giants were to dangle him, they’d get a really good return for him. He is a strikeout machine, and you would think an acquiring team would be able to help him tone down that walk rate, especially since they’d have him for three arbitration years after 2026. But even somebody like 34-year old Andrew Chafin netted the Tigers the Rangers’ #24 prospect and a major league reliever back in 2024.
Now, could the Giants use him in, like, 2030 when they might be an 83-win team, fighting for the fourth Wild Card? Sure. But his best value today is as a trade chip.
4. Landen Roupp
He’s got to be high on the list because he would be a tremendously valuable addition to an acquiring team which would mean that the Giants would get a lot for him. On the other hand, the hit to their starting rotation would probably be pretty steep, so, I can’t put him so high on the list. There also aren’t many comparisons to be made here and it would depend on what the industry thinks of him. Moving Roupp seems more like a move to make in the offseason, but if the lockout worries pickup, I wonder if that will change the calculation for teams hoping to compete in 2026. Roupp is also an injury risk who might only be sticking around for another 50-60 innings this season; but, really, I don’t think the Giants would be able to find equivalent value in a trade.
Still, you never know.
3. Luis Arraez
One could argue that the Giants signed him specifically to trade him at the deadline, regardless of their win-loss record. That they were able to Wash him and make him an above average defender at second base makes this whole gambit an absolute miracle, and it’s reasonable to believe that the Giants will do very well in trading him.
He is the 23rd most valuable position player in Major League Baseball as I write this. I bolded that because it is still hard to process. Buster Posey found Joe Panik? Found Marco Scutaro? in free agency for $12 million.
It’s very hard to find a comparison here because teams don’t typically trade players with this much value. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the year, so, it’s not like there will be a lot of value to be had in a trade scenario anyway, but on the other hand, we’ve seen teams really go all out to acquire exactly what they need. But just to give an example of value: last year, here were the position players around the 23rd-most valuable on June 1st:
- Steven Kwan, 2.1 fWAR
- Brendan Donovan, 2.0
- Rafael Devers, 1.9
- Ryan O’Hearn, 2.1
Remarkably, all of these players were traded at some point or, in the case of Kwan, rumored to be on the trade block. Only O’Hearn was a free agent at year’s end.
In his case, the Orioles traded him along with outfielder Ramon Laureano along with cash to the Padres in exchange for their #6, #8, and #16 prospects along with two more position player prospects and a pitching prospect. Laureano had an extra year on his deal and the Padres were in terrible need of help in their outfield, so, it’s not a true comparison to the Arraez situation.
Then there’s the factor of what teams value more: offense or defense. Only 11 of the 30 teams have positive defense and offense at second base. The rest
Plus, the teams that could use a boost at second base aren’t playoff teams for the most part, and the ones that could be are actually . Only the Rays (+0.3 fWAR, 100 wRC+), but 20 of the 30 teams have at least average defense there. So, how many of those teams would seek an upgrade at the position?
The Giants’ 113 wRC+ is 7th in MLB for the second base position, top third in the sport. Their +6.3 Defensive Runs Above Average is #2. Would Philadelphia want to improve over Bryson Stott (67 wRC+, +3.6 Def, +0.5 fWAR)? Or the Reds over Spencer Steer & Edwin Arroyo (78 wRC+, +2.4 Def, +0.3 fWAR)? Or Tampa Bay get better than Richie Palacios (100 wRC+, -5.4 Def, +0.3 fWAR)?
This is almost certainly the one big trade the Giants will be involved in this deadline and it’s a situation where they might get a big return if they are able to drum up enough interest or move him in June when the acquiring team would get to have him longer.
2. Logan Webb
From December: The “best time to trade Logan Webb is after the 2026 season, provided the Giants are still a .500 at best team.” The Giants are no longer a .500 team at best. They are back to the Bobby Evans era of 2017 in terms of their ceiling. It’s time to move Logan Webb. Problem is, he might not be the same pitcher everyone planned for him to be at the start of the season and the ABS Challenge System might’ve further eroded his value by taking away the shadow strike zone.
Still! There are plenty of comps to be made for a Webb deal. Back in December, I briefly mentioned the Padres trade for Dylan Cease before pivoting to more realistic-looking deals that fit Webb’s contract & age:
- The Orioles gave up INF Joey Ortiz (#8 prospect, #63 on Pipeline’s Top 100), LHP DL Hall, and a Competitive Balance Round A pick for one year of Corbin Burnes (then 29) two offseasons ago.
- The Rangers got the #4, #17, and #27 prospects in the Dodgers’ system at the 2017 trade deadline in exchange for Yu Darvish (age 30).
- In 2014, the Rays traded away David Price at the deadline for Willy Adames, Drew Smyly, and Nick Franklin (Seattle’s #4 prospect)
Now, here’s where things get really interesting. Ken Rosenthal wrote in The Athletic this morning that the trade deadline is about to be dominated by talk of Tarik Skubal being on the move, provided he can establish he’s healthy. I would never suggest that Logan Webb is on Skubal’s level, but he’s right there on the tier beneath and he, too, needs to demonstrate that he’s healthy, not just for the Giants, but for any team that might have interest. Such times might include those that miss out on acquiring Skubal or come to find that Skubal isn’t healthy and not worth acquiring in-season. Logan Webb could very quickly become The Best Pitcher Available, and that’s why I’m sneaking him past Luis Arraez. Not because he’s more likely to move, but because he’d be a more valuable player to move, given the probable return.
It’d be a big hit to the rotation, of course, but this season is so bad that moving Webb might be met by the season ticketholders and general fans with more of a “Well, Buster had to do something to shake things up.“ Because the possible return is lower and the pain for the Giants much greater, I can’t put Logan Webb #1. No Giants fan should want the Giants to trade away Logan Webb. But, you know, if it happens, it will be a logical decision.
1. Casey Schmitt
Now, why would the Giants move their best hitter right now? Well, because they have Matt Chapman, and chances are they won’t be able to trade Matt Chapman. Now, if they trade Luis Arraez, I’d think that would put Schmitt there or even shortstop if they want to slide Adames over to second in-season. There are certainly scenarios where a trade makes him more valuable to the Giants on the Giants, but just imagine what a player who is having his breakout season with three years of team control remaining could fetch in the trade market.
The Red Sox didn’t want to pay Alex Bregman to continue playing third base, so they let him walk and traded for Caleb Durbin (.183/.250/.280). Let Casey Schmitt aim his bat at the Green Monster and have some fun. The Red Sox have not only some interesting outfielders, but interesting arms who could really help the Giants, and with Schmitt in the lineup, Boston might be able to make a run at the AL Wild Card.
The Brewers could improve upon the 71 wRC+ they’re getting from the position and improve upon the defense, too. Cincinnati is dead last in offense from the position. The Phillies are 24th (71 wRC+).
Yes, this would be a big hit to the current Giants lineup, but with Schmitt out of position and a lot of the prospect depth being on the infield, it stands to reason that selling high on him would be a wise decision, particularly if it’s one of only a few moves they’d make around the deadline. It wouldn’t need to be a part of a total teardown, and it wouldn’t be the first time the team traded a popular third baseman to get better fast.
Sure, the Giants should make virtually their entire roster available for trade, but I didn’t include these players for the following reasons:
- Adrian Houser: that extra guaranteed year. I don’t think he’s pitched well enough for a team to acquire him with that commitment. Then again, a team might be certain there won’t be a 2027 and change their mind, but I couldn’t conjure value there other than a salary dump for the Giants.
- Matt Chapman: Yesterday, I wrote about how he’s not washed, cooked, or finished, but he’s still far enough along the aging curve with enough time left on his deal (plus a no trade clause!) that I don’t think he’d be one of the 10 most valuable trade pieces the Giants would have to offer at the deadline.
- Willy Adames: Too much money owed, and not enough upside, especially with the bad defense this season.
- Heliot Ramos: I did consider adding him to the list, but I think the Giants would want to hold on to him in the event that they do make other trades because he will be an important bat for them to have in the lineup when he comes back. If he doesn’t come back soon (and it doesn’t seem like he will), then teams won’t want him in-season.
- Bryce Eldridge: Since the Giants wouldn’t be trying to acquire a player to remarkably improve their in-season chances I think he’ll stay put. But, wow, I wonder if Zack Minasian has even briefly reconsidered not moving him for CJ Abrams. Ultimately, of course, it all worked out at second base, but the situation is… interesting.
- Caleb Kilian, Matt Gage, Joel Peguero, Ryan Walker: The relievers I put on the list would bring back more of a return than any of these guys.
Here’s my opinion of my own list: I’d like to see how the Giants could remake themselves for next year (or a post-lockout 2028) by trading Schmitt, Arraez, Webb, Robbie Ray, and Erik Miller. That would hurt, but it wouldn’t set them back very much going forward with the upside of bringing in prospects from the outside to pair with the ones they’ve been developing internally. The internal processes seem to be going well, so maybe now is the time to lean on the potential strength of player development and set themselves up nicely or a good, long future.
