The 2026 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament tips off Tuesday morning from Kansas City, MO, a five day gauntlet where the deepest collection of teams battle for the conference crown. The stakes are sky high for every team entering the week with plenty of drama sure to unfold: a 1-seed fighting for the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed while another four squads look to lock up a coveted top-four seed in the Big Dance; teams still floating on the Bubble looking to make that final resume statement;
a collection of capable Cinderellas aiming to steal a ticket with a stunning Championship run. Buckle up and get your popcorn ready as it is going to be an elite week of hoops on the glass court of the T-Mobile Center,
Note: All odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change.
#1 Seed: Arizona Wildcats 29-2 (16-2)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +115
- Odds to make Final 4: -115
- Odds to win National Championship: +550
NCAA Tournament Outlook: A certainty to be a No.1 seed destined to headline the West Region. the Wildcats are looking to overtake Michigan and Duke to be considered the bracket’s overall top seed. This would likely require cutting the nets in KC while the Wolverines & Blue Devils fall early during their respective conference tournaments. Arizona has not reached the Final Four in a quarter century, but this could set up as a clear path.
#2 Seed: Houston Cougars 26-5 (14-4)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +210
- Odds to make Final 4: +190
- Odds to win National Championship: +1200
NCAA Tournament Outlook: Currently a projected No. 2 seed, the Cougars can certainly make a case to jump into the one-line with a Big 12 Championship and if Florida and UConn falter this week. The reigning Big 12 Champs and NCAA runners-up, Kelvin Sampson is looking to finally lift that trophy in April.
#3 Seed: Kansas Jayhawks 22-9 (12-6)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +850
- Odds to make Final 4: +1100
- Odds to win National Championship: +5000
NCAA Tournament Outlook: A projected 4-seed headed into the week, the Big 12 bracket sets up nicely for the Jayhawks to make a run. With a bevy of Big Ten teams ahead of them in the current projections, it’s likely someone falls off there, leaving the door open to Bill Self’s squad to climb up the seed list. With superstar potential No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick starting to spend more time on the court, the Jayhawks could be heating up at the right time.
#4 Seed: Texas Tech Red Raiders 22-9 (12-6)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +1700
- Odds to make Final 4: +2500
- Odds to win National Championship: +10000
NCAA Tournament Outlook: Everything about their Red Raiders’ outlook would feel better if it still had a healthy JT Toppin. While the resume suggest a sure-fire top-4 seed, the Committee could punish TTU for Toppin’s injury if Tech goes one-and-done in the Big 12 Tournament. Don’t be surprised if Tech falls into a five seed and suddenly becomes on upset alert against a capable mid-major champion such as High Point or Northern Iowa.
#5 Seed: Iowa State Cyclones 25-6 (12-6)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +650
- Odds to make Final 4: +500
- Odds to win National Championship: +2500
NCAA Tournament Outlook: What once appeared to be a sure-fire 2-seed resume is now teetering on the edge of taking a tumble down the bracket as the Cyclones have spent the last few weeks losing to TCU, TTU, BYU, and Arizona. The metrics are still that of a Top 10 team and a pair of wins in KC should secure that 2-seed ISU rightly deserves.
#6 Seed: TCU Horned Frogs 21-10 (11-7)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +8000
- Odds to make Final 4: N/A
- Odds to win National Championship: +50000
NCAA Tournament Outlook: Well well well, would you look at that. TCU finished above .500 in Big 12 play for the first time since joining the conference and are now a lock to be in the Big Dance. Given the weakness of the Bubble, it seems unlikely that the Frogs could fall into the Dayton play-in games as a Last Team In, but a win in its first game over either Colorado or Oklahoma State would make that certain and give opportunity to potentially move well up the seed list if it can take down Kansas in the quarterfinals. Projected as a 9-seed, it would take at least that much to push the Horned Frogs up into a 7-seed.
#7 Seed: West Virginia Mountaineers 18-13 (9-9)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +25000
- Odds to make Final 4: N/A
- Odds to win National Championship: +100000
NCAA Tournament Outlook: The Mountaineers are deeply on the Bubble, on the outside looking in. WVU likely needs to get wins over BYU & Houston to be in real conversation for an at-large bid. Doing so would give them an impressive 7 Q1 wins, which would be impossible to ignore despite any other lackluster resume metrics. Winning zero of its neutral site non-con games before the brutal Big 12 schedule put WVU into a hole that it seems unlikely to climb out of.
#8 Seed: UCF Knights 20-10 (9-9)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +25000
- Odds to make Final 4: +10000
- Odds to win National Championship: +50000
NCAA Tournament Outlook: UCF appeared to be a lock two weeks ago after rattling off three straight wins, including in Provo over BYU, the Knights are now on the Bubble after closing the season with three losses to non-tournament teams. With a mediocre resume and mediocre metrics, UCF needs a win over (likely) Cincinnati on Wednesday in what should be an NCAA Tournament elimination game.
#9 Seed: Cincinnati Bearcats 17-14 (9-9)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +8000
- Odds to make Final 4: N/A
- Odds to win National Championship: N/A
NCAA Tournament Outlook: Despite being Top 45 in NET, BPI, KenPom, and Torvik, the Bearcats just don’t have the resume to live up to those statistical metrics. Ranked 63rd in Wins Above Bubble with just a 3-11 Q1 record and a Q4 loss, Cincinnati has a lot of work to do in Kansas City if it wants to go dancing. If the Bearcats can reach the Semifinal, which means a win over Arizona, an at-large bid could still be on the table.
#10 Seed: BYU Cougars 21-10 (9-9)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +5000
- Odds to make Final 4: +7000
- Odds to win National Championship: +25000
NCAA Tournament Outlook: How did this team fall to the 10-seed in the conference tournament?! Yes the Cougars have suffered injuries, but AJ Dybantsa is a dynamo capable of going on a Carmelo Anthony-like run through the Tournament as a freshman. Currently a borderline 6-seed, the metrics are still elite even as the conference losses piled up. BYU could make a nice run through the Big 12 bracket and push for a 5-seed if it can get past Houston in the quarterfinals.
#11 Seed: Colorado Buffaloes 17-14 (7-11)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +30000
- Odds to make Final 4: N/A
- Odds to win National Championship: N/A
NCAA Tournament Outlook: There is a world where a run to the Big 12 final gets the Buffs back into the conversation, earning wins over OK State, TCU, Kansas, and Houston, but even that may not be enough. The metrics are horrible for Colorado, sub-70 in NET and WAB with a 1-10 Q1 record is not good enough.
#12 Seed: Arizona State Sun Devils 16-15 (7-11)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +30000
- Odds to make Final 4: N/A
- Odds to win National Championship: N/A
NCAA Tournament Outlook: ASU’s March Madness dreams and head coach Bobby Hurley both appear to be running out of time. ASU has some extremely strong wins (TTU, Kansas, Texas, Santa Clara, Oklahoma) but the accumulation of losses and a Q4 black eye in the resume makes it unlikely the Sun Devils will be dancing. ASU must at least reach the Finals to get back into at-large consideration.
#13 Seed: Baylor Bears 16-15 (6-12)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +30000
- Odds to make Final 4: N/A
- Odds to win National Championship: N/A
NCAA Tournament Outlook: A team filled with future and former NBA players finished 13th in the Big 12, but at least Scott Drew improved Baylor’s lottery odds to get a top NBA pick next year. While the Bears always appeared to be “competitive” in most of its games this year, the final results were rarely in doubt. Baylor would need to stage a miracle run in Kansas City to get back into the conversation, but anything short of a championship likely sends the Bears home.
#14 Seed: Oklahoma State Cowboys 18-13 (6-12)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament:
- Odds to make Final 4: N/A
- Odds to win National Championship: N/A
NCAA Tournament Outlook: This is a team better than its record and conference seeding indicates. OSU went 7-3 in Quad 2 game, but could not get the job done in winnable Q1 opportunities. Hovering around 80th in the NET, the Cowboys must win the Big 12 auto bid to reach the NCAA Tournament.
#15 Seed: Kansas State Wildcats 12-19 (3-15)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +30000
- Odds to make Final 4: N/A
- Odds to win National Championship: N/A
NCAA Tournament Outlook: What a disaster of a season for K-State. Jerome Tang secured the services of super free agent former Horned Frog PJ Haggerty, but the team never developed and Tang was fired. Coming in at 100 in the NET, KSU’s miserable 2025-26 campaign is likely to mercifully come to an end on Tuesday against BYU.
#16 Seed: Utah Utes 10-21 (2-16)
- Odds to win Big 12 Tournament: +30000
- Odds to make Final 4: N/A
- Odds to win National Championship: N/A
NCAA Tournament Outlook: What an absolute stain on the Big 12. It’s unfortunate the Utes’ only meaningful win of the season came in Salt Lake against TCU, but otherwise it was an abysmal year of hoops for the Utes. Sub-130 NET, sub 160 WAB, this marks one of the worst seasons ever by a Big 12 team. It goes without saying, but Utah must have an impossible Cinderella run through the Big 12 to reach the NCAA Tournament.
