The Wisconsin Badgers have another major opportunity ahead of them this weekend, facing off against the No. 20 Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor on Saturday, with kickoff slated for 11:00 a.m.
Coming into the game, Wisconsin is a steep 17.5-point underdog, with the over/under set at 42.5 points. While the Badgers look outmatched heading into this game, there is one key metric where they’ve shone this season: run defense.
After ranking 89th in the country by allowing over 160 rushing yards per game in 2024,
the Badgers have skyrocketed all the way to No. 2 in the country this season, allowing just 50.0 rushing yards a game. That’s worse than only Missouri. And they rank No. 4 in rush yards per attempt at 2.1.
However, they’re facing a Michigan team that has been one of the best rushing teams in the country, averaging a whopping 256.8 rushing yards per game, good for sixth-best in the NCAA.
So, what will give on Saturday? Will the Badgers be able to stop the run and limit Michigan’s offense? Or will the Wolverines be able to run on Wisconsin? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
The Badgers have definitely impressed on the ground this season, which was a key goal for the staff in the offseason. They brought in several defensive linemen from the transfer portal, including Jay’Viar Suggs and Parker Petersen, who have been consistent players for Wisconsin thus far.
But, when looking at the teams they’ve faced, Wisconsin has yet to really face a good rushing team. The best rushing team they’ve played so far is Alabama, which currently ranks 94th in the country on the ground.
They dominated against UL-Monroe, but had 3.1 yards per attempt against Georgia and 3.0 yards per attempt against Florida State.
The other three teams Wisconsin has faced are Maryland, Middle Tennessee, and Miami (OH), which rank No. 127, No. 123, and No. 118 in rushing yards per game, respectively. So, Wisconsin has faced four subpar rushing attacks so far.
On the flip side, the Wolverines had 146 yards on 4.6 yards per carry against the Oklahoma Sooners, who are the ninth-best rushing defense in the country. They also ran for 286 yards against Nebraska, 381 yards against Central Michigan, and 201 yards against New Mexico. While Nebraska and Central Michigan haven’t had great run defenses, New Mexico ranks a respectable 27th in the country currently.
So, Michigan has proven to be dominant against tough competition, while the Badgers have yet to face that true test. That’s why I lean the Wolverines on the ground in this contest, which would be rough for Wisconsin.
If Wisconsin holds Michigan to under four yards a carry, that would be a big win for the run defense and could keep the Badgers in the game. But, if Michigan runs for at least 4.5 yards per carry, as I expect, the Badgers are going to have a tough time holding up defensively.
