With where the Buccaneers are and are going, many people (which may be an understatement) think, expect, and want to see Todd Bowles sent packing after or even during the season. Tampa Bay is 2-5, an unfortunate start to what was hoped to be a promising season. The Buccaneers have not been good this year, but at the same time it’s been a weird season. Tampa has played both good and bad teams and has been in almost exclusively close games. The Bucs actually have a positive point differential on the season (+11)—
The positivity of that differential is largely in part due to last Sunday’s blowout win versus the Carolina Panthers, however, even without last week’s outing they would still only be at a -19.
Not only has Tampa has been in every game they’ve played, but Todd Bowles’ side of the ball has probably been the team’s strongest unit. Bowles’ defense has some statistics you might believe if you haven’t been paying attention. The unit is ranked third in the NFL in yards allowed— They hold teams under 300 yards per game (294.7). The yards teams do come by against the Bucs are not on the ground. The Buccaneers’ rush defense is also top-5 in the league, only 77.3 yards per game allowed— Good for second best league wide. An easy argument against those defensive statistics might be that yards don’t win or lose games, points on the scoreboard determine the outcome of games— True, but the Buccaneers are actually first in that category. No team allows fewer points per game than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, captained by Todd Bowles. At just 138 points surrendered on the season, the Bucs’ defense has let up under 20 points per game on average (19.8). The defense has had its highs and lows this season. For every instance like last Sunday’s dominance, there’s a fourth quarter meltdown like the Pittsburgh Steelers game two weeks back. Still, the Buccaneers’ defense has been good, arguably great, in 2026.
“Todd Bowles is the head coach, so he’s the coach of the whole team and not just the coach of the defense.”
How is the rest of the team doing?
The Buccaneers’ special teams unit has been substantially improved this season. Todd Bowles spent a large portion of his offseason rearranging his coaching staff and one of his largest additions to the coaching staff was special teams coach Danny Smith. Smith’s taken the group to a new level and Bowles deserves credit for the hire, another check for the retainment of coach Bowles.
Todd Bowles also brought in a new coach for the offensive side of the ball— Zac Robinson. This hire has not been as bountiful in its results. Robinson has been severely disliked by fans since his arrival in Tampa and hasn’t had many games this year where he looked the part. Aside from the last week, Tampa’s offense has had a difficult time functioning. The offense’s performance against Carolina, while one for the books speaks less to gameplanning, elite scheming or coaching, and more to circumstances (Carolina committing four turnovers) combined with psychical domination by the players on the field. Robinson has the Bucs’ offense ranked in the back half of the league. If that level of output should continue, than Robinson will unequivocally be a bad hire, but the story of the season isn’t completely written yet. The Bucs’ offense is coming off of their best game of the season and both of Tampa’s wins have come inside of the last three weeks of football. Each win featured a strong run game and improved play in the trenches, potential signs of growth from the group.
If enough season remains for Zac Robinson to save face can the same be said for Todd Bowles?
Many fans minds were made up on Todd Bowles before this season ever began, before the 2025 season, in all likelihood from the moment he got the job in 2022 there was a heavy contingent of fans that were not in favor of him as their team’s head man.
Bowles’ record in four and a half seasons as Tampa Bay’s leader is 39-43— His claim to fame? Three NFC South crowns. Last season, was his first year missing the postseason and Tampa did so in dramatic team-wide collapsing fashion. This year, seems somehow worse. So what does a job-saving season look like for Todd Bowles at this point?
First and foremost, without any dispute, the Buccaneers would need to make the playoffs. Anything short of a hellacious run to end the season and sneak into the playoffs as the kings of the South should lead to an immediate departure a head coaching search in January. A return to the postseason following last year’s leave should not be considered enough— If for no other reason than anyone who would’ve been asked six months ago what a successful season for the 2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be wouldn’t have checked the box for seven or eight wins followed by a first round playoff exit. If Todd Bowles is able to rally his team and make run to the postseason with a season that will likely have more losses than wins the performance in the playoffs must play a factor.
In the scenario that Tampa is the NFC South’s representative in this year’s postseason, Bowles’ Bucs would be matched up against a superior team. They would be an underdog at home in January. For Bowles to have a chance of survival, that first home playoff game would need to be a win. Game two of the playoff run would be a road playoff game, again as an underdog— Likely a very heavy underdog. A win in round one followed by a competitive loss in that round two game— That was the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A playoff win and a close loss in round two is not a step forward, it’s a step backwards, back to where this team was three years ago.
If Todd Bowles is able to take this team on the road and secure a second playoff victory that would mean the Buccaneers would have advanced to the NFC Championship Game— One game from Super Bowl. This becomes the point in time where Bowles has a chance. If Tampa Bay trecks their way through the rest of the regular season, winning enough games to burst into the playoffs, pulls out multiple playoff wins against quality contenders, and finds themselves 60 minutes from a Super Bowl appearance, Bowles has a chance. The narrative for the season would no longer be the doom and gloom Buccaneers. It would be that the team added a lot of new coaches with new pieces and simply needed to work out the kinks, that they just needed to get Baker Mayfield back healthy and that they were hamstrung by an undrafted rookie free agent quarterback earlier in the year, that Bowles has developed guys like Zyon McCollum and Jacob Parrish, and how his defense is playing at the highest level it has played at in years.
A competitive showing in an NFC Championship Game setting is in all likelihood enough for Todd Bowles to retain his position as head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers moving into 2027. It may be beyond unlikely and it may scare some fans to think about, but Todd Bowles can still save his job.
