For the first time in his career, Matthew Stafford is set to lead the NFL in a major stat category, the type that typically gets a quarterback named MVP, if not several. Stafford is the leader in touchdowns
(30) and passer rating (113.7) with six games to go and he Rams in first place in the NFC. At a time when so many fans around the league are clamoring for their teams to get a high draft pick so they can draft a quarterback — despite almost none of them being successful over the past 5 years and beyond — it’s the 37-year-old with a bad back lapping the field not in spite of his age but because of his experience.
30 touchdowns through 11 games
Stafford’s 30 touchdown passes through 11 games is tied for the 11th-most in history with a list of Hall of Fame quarterbacks:
- Tom Brady, 2021
- Drew Brees, 2016
- Patrick Mahomes, 2020
- Dan Marino, 1984
- Aaron Rodgers, 2014
Of the 10 times a QB had more than 30 touchdowns through 11 games, Peyton Manning did it three times (including a record 41 in 2004), Rodgers did it twice, plus Brady, Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Brees, and Russell Wilson.
Of the 15 other seasons with at least 30 touchdowns through 11 games, Rodgers won MVP all three times, Manning won MVP twice, while Brady, Mahomes, and Marino all won MVP once. Brees was the 2016 Offensive Player of the Year.
If Stafford throws 12 touchdowns per game over the rest of the season, he will finish with a career-high 42. If he averages 3 touchdowns per game, he will finish with 45. That number has only been reached eight times and Brees is the only one of those to not win MVP. Brees lost that season to Rodgers, who had 45 touchdowns/6 interceptions.
Lapping the field
Stafford’s 30 touchdowns is seven more touchdowns than second place, a tie between Dak Prescott and Jared Goff. That gives Stafford a TD% “adjusted mark” of 140, which basically means he has 140% more touchdown passes than the average QB. Or something, you get it. The average is 100 and Stafford has 140 on a TD%.
Way, way above average.
-When Manning set the record with 55 touchdown passes in 2013, his TD% adjusted mark was 145. Not that much higher than Stafford’s now. (Manning’s career-best was an insane 168 in 2004.)
-When Marino threw 48 touchdowns in 1984, his TD% adjusted mark was 148.
-Even Brady only had one season over 135 in his career, which was the 2007 season (153).
In other words, it’s not only impressive that Stafford has 30 touchdowns. It’s impressive at a time when his competition isn’t doing nearly as good as he is doing.
TD/INT ratio
Although we’ve now seen that a handful of QBs have had 30 touchdowns through 11 games, not many of them had 2 interceptions at the time.
These are the quarterbacks with the most TDs through 11 games with 5 or fewer INTs:
Stafford’s 30/2 TD to INT ratio is not the wildest in history (you can decide for yourself if context makes it wilder but I’m just comparing the raw data) but it’s hard to beat it outright.
Mahomes had the same ratio in 2020, a season when he actually didn’t win MVP…because it went to Aaron Rodgers, who you can see had a 33:4 TD:INT ratio through 11 games. Mahomes did go to the Super Bowl but lost to Brady.
Mahomes needed more attempts to get to 30 touchdowns, but that also means he had more attempts without an interception. Both seasons are impressive!
There is nobody like Rodgers competing with Stafford for touchdowns this season, however. His odds of winning MVP are very good.
A chance to make history
Stafford has an opportunity to join a super exclusive group of quarterbacks to have thrown at least 40 touchdowns but 5 or fewer interceptions:
- Aaron Rodgers, 2020 (48 TD, 5 INT)
- Lamar Jackson, 2024 (41 TD, 4 INT)
Remarkably, Jackson did not win MVP because voters had Lamar MVP fatigue. Nobody will, umm, have that with Matthew Stafford.
When you drop the number down to 35 touchdowns, you get two more seasons by Rodgers (2014, 2021 both MVP campaigns) and Brady’s 2010 season (MVP).
If Stafford averages just 1 TD and 0.5 interceptions over the last six games, he will finish with 36 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Mahomes has never done that. Manning has never done that. Brees never did that, although he came very close with 32 TD/5 INT in 2018 and he still didn’t win MVP on a 13-2 team because that was Mahomes’ breakout 50-TD season. Maybe it should have gone to Brees though.
Age (experience) helps
It’s remarkable how many of the seasons above were also by quarterbacks over 35:
- Rodgers won MVP at age 37, 38 when he threw a combined 85 TD/9 INT over the 2020-2021 seasons
- Brady won MVP at age 40 when he had 32 TD/8 INT and led the league in passing yards
- Brees was 39 when he lost MVP to Mahomes
- Manning was 37 when he set the record of 55 touchdown passes and won MVP
You’ll have to excuse NFL history for not being of much help here because quarterbacks aging gracefully is still a new phenomenon. You have to remember that the league worked very hard to protect quarterbacks with obscene offensive-friendly rules and to make the passing game easier on their most valuable players.
Let’s ask Steve Young if he would have liked to play in the modern era. Or Joe Montana. Roman Gabriel?
At the same time, the quarterbacks entering the league seem to be getting worse. Whether that’s due to the changing landscape of college football, including the transfer portal and NIL, or just a worse coaching product in the NCAA, it’s become difficult to find quarterbacks in the first round of the draft who teams can build their franchise around.
2019: Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins
2020: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love
2021: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones
2022: Kenny Pickett
2023: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson
2024: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix
2025: Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart
Even if we argue that there have been a few good recent picks like Maye, he’s the only one in competition for MVP. There’s no Mahomes.
The QBs who would typically be in competition for such awards are guys like Murray, who by all accounts is about to be released in 2026, or Burrow, who has once again missed too many games with an injury. The entire 2021 class looks awful and the best quarterback in 2022 was literally the last pick, Brock Purdy. He’s OK.
We’ve seen extraordinary inconsistency from Stroud and Bryce Young is holding on by a thread. The Penix-McCarthy-Nix trio that most people agreed was drafted way too high could all be facing replacement in 2026. Even if the Broncos win the Super Bowl, they can’t give much credit to Nix for that.
If the next-best quarterback in this group this season is Herbert, well he’s also just OK. Still looking for his first career playoff win, Herbert has been neutered by Jim Harbaugh, if anything. Whatever was exciting about Herbert in 2021 when he threw 38 touchdowns is gone, replaced by a quarterback who has 19 touchdowns and 9 interceptions in 11 games.
What we are left with is a top-10 of passing touchdowns this season that includes 6 quarterbacks who are 30 and only 2 quarterbacks under 27: Maye and Nix.
Josh Allen is 29, Sam Darnold is 28, and Justin Herbert is 27.
The NFL’s average passer rating is 92.3 this season. Of the 15 qualified QBs under that mark, 10 are under 27 years old. Tua Tagovailoa (27) and Murray (28) are barely older than that. Carson Wentz, Geno Smith, and Joe Flacco are the other three.
In the coming years, expect some teams to covet experience over youth, unsure if the next incoming crop of quarterbacks is destined for greatness or already too content with life because they made $8 million in college. Waiting for that next Matthew Stafford, when money has lost all meaning compared to finally winning the Super Bowl. Stafford did it immediately after getting to Los Angeles.
The only thing left was MVP and Super Bowl MVP. A quarterback never ages out of wanting to win the Super Bowl.
