One of the top defensive minds vs one of the top offensive minds. Two USC quarterbacks going head to head. On Monday Night Football, who will come out on top: Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, and the Seattle Seahawks? Or Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams, and the Chicago Bears. The Seahawks are 31-13 on Monday Night Football, and are wearing their grey pants, which they have a winning record in. Will the win streak continue? Lets see what the numbers have to say.
Seahawks advanced stat rankings
The Seahawks per FTN are the fifth ranked team per Total DVOA, with the 22nd ranked offense, the first ranked defense, and the ninth ranked special teams.
Per Sumer Sports, the Seahawks have the first ranked defense per total EPA and second in EPA per play, and have the 24th ranked offense per Total EPA and in EPA per play.
The Seahawks have the fourth best point differential in the league with a +43 and a margin of victory of 6.1. They are currently averaging 24 points per game while allowing opponents to score 17.9 per game.
Bears advanced stat rankings
The Bears per FTN are the 17th ranked team per Total DVOA, with the 14th ranked offense, 18th ranked defense, and eighth ranked special teams.
Per Sumer Sports, the Bears have the 15th ranked defense in total EPA and 14th EPA per play. They also have the 12th ranked offense in total EPA, and in EPA per play.
The Bears have the seventh best point differential in the league with a +37 and a margin of victory of 5.3. They are currently averaging 25.7 points per game and allowing opponents to score 20.4 points per game.
Calculating the score
SEA Points For 24 + CHI Opponents 20.4 = 44.4/2= 22.2
CHI Points For 25.7 + SEA Opponents 17.9= 43.6/2= 21.8
First Score Prediction: 22-22 Tie
Second week in a row where a tie comes up, so, lets look at the advanced stats.
Seahawks Lead in these categories: Total DVOA, Defensive DVOA, Defensive EPA, Defensive EPA per Play, Point Differential, Margin of Victory, and Points Allowed.
Bears Lead in these categories: Offensive DVOA, Special Teams DVOA, Offensive EPA, Offensive EPA per Play, Average points per game.
Seahawks lead in seven categories to the Bears Five. Seahawks win the tie breaker.
Seahawks are averaging a margin of victory of 6.1
Second Score Prediction: 22-16 Seahawks
Now, lets look at the top players for each team, the average scoring for each team per game, and see what we can gather from that to predict a score.
Caleb is averaging one thrown touchdown per game, likely being thrown to Colston Loveland or Luther Burden, both of whom have two touchdowns. With the Seahawks historically allowing solid performances to tight ends, except for Travis Kelce in the last game, I predict if Caleb tosses a touchdown pass, it’s to Loveland for six points.
Now the Bears are averaging two rushing touchdowns a game. That will be difficult against the Seahawks stout rushing defense, but if they are able to get two rushing touchdowns, the likely players to run it in are D’Andre Swift who has seven, or Caleb, who has two. That’s another 12 points for a total of 18.
Cairo Santos is 100 percent on extra points, so the Bears score goes up to 21. He is averaging 1.5 field goals per game with 73.3 percent accuracy, so we will give him one field goal for a total score 24.
Sam is averaging one touchdown pass a game, likely being tossed to Jaxon Smith-Njigba who is on a historic pace right now to beat Calvin Johnson’s record, and has eight touchdowns on the year. Six points on the board for the Seahawks.
The Seahawks are also averaging one rushing touchdown a game. With Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price both good to go versus the Bears along with Emanuel Wilson, we could see more rushing touchdowns, but for the sake of consistency, we will give them one rushing touchdown, for a total of 12 now.
Jason Myers has made 16 of 17 extra points, so it is fair to believe he would make both of them. The score is now up to 14. He is also averaging two field goals a game making 14 of 15. Another six points round out the score to 20.
Third Score Prediction: 20-24, Bears Win
Who do you think will win the game? What is your score prediction? How many rushing touchdowns will the Bears and Seahawks have? Let us know in the comments, and as always, Go Hawks!
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