Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, December 27 at 9:15 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: NRG Stadium — Houston, TX
- Spread: Houston (-1.5)
- Over/under: 42.5
- All-time series: LSU leads, 2-1
- Last meeting: LSU 28, Houston 13 — September 9, 2000
- Current streak: LSU, 1 (2000)
- LSU last bowl: 2024 Texas Bowl, 44-31 win over Baylor
- Houston last bowl: 2022 Independence Bowl, 23-16 win over Louisiana
- 2024 Texas Bowl matchup: LSU 44, Baylor 31
Setting the scene
Houston and LSU are two of the biggest fanbases residing in the nation’s 4th-largest city, making the 2025 Texas Bowl a perfect matchup, pitting together two teams that haven’t squared off in a quarter of a century.
The Houston Cougars (9-3, 6-3 Big 12) enjoyed a spectacular breakout season under second-year head coach Willie Fritz. Houston more than doubled its win total from the prior year, punching a ticket to its first bowl since joining the Big 12 Conference. Now the Cougars can collect their
first 10-win season since 2021 by handling business in their hometown.
The LSU Tigers (7-5, 3-5 SEC) spent the first half of the season as a fixture in the Top 10 but dropped five of their final eight games — firing head coach Brian Kelly along the way. But before the Lane Kiffin era commences in Baton Rouge, LSU aims to finish 2025 strong with a second-straight Texas Bowl victory, one year after taking down a fellow Big 12 foe in Baylor.
LSU Tigers outlook
LSU is one of college football’s most successful postseason programs. The Tigers ride a 3-game bowl winning streak and were victors in eight of their last 10 bowl games — including the 2019 National Championship Game. However, in the midst of transition with a coaching staff, LSU enters this game with a unique personnel situation.
Lane Kiffin arrives from Ole Miss for the 2026 season, but interim head coach Frank Wilson (who already accepted a position as Ole Miss’ running backs coach) will finish the job in Houston. Wilson spent the 2010-15 and 2022-25 seasons with the Tigers as a running backs coach, earning a reputation for his recruiting prowess.
Given the coaching situation, many LSU players already opted out of the remainder of the season. Notable starters not suiting up for the Texas Bowl include quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, wide receiver Aaron Anderson, guard Josh Thompson, inside linebacker West Weeks, outside linebackers Harold Perkins Jr. and Whit Weeks, cornerback Mansoor Delane, and strong safety (and former Houston standout) AJ Haulcy.
This LSU team — ranked 109th in scoring and 111th in yardage — will search for an offensive spark under the direction of Michael Van Buren Jr., who started the final three contests of the season and led close wins over Arkansas and WKU. Van Buren gained vast experience as Mississippi State’s primary starter in 2024 and tallied 743 passing yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions in his first season as a Tiger. The sophomore also improved his mobility in Baton Rouge, racking up 81 rushing yards in his three November starts.
Van Buren will work with a young LSU running back corps in desperate need of a strong showing. The Tigers are 122nd in the FBS in rushing yards per game and never saw a 100-yard showing all year. True freshman Harlem Hill and sophomores Caden Durham and Ju’Juan Johnson eye an end to that streak as the Tigers search for a potential No. 1 running back of the future.
LSU never scored more than 25 points on an FBS team all year, and the receiving corps is hoping to provide enough production to change that. Barion Brown (495 yards) and Zavion Thomas (473 yards) are both within reach of 500 yards receiving on the season, and they’ll run alongside tight end Trey’Dez Green in hopes of replicating LSU’s 2024 Texas Bowl performance — a game dominated by Tiger receivers to the tune of 313 yards and three touchdowns.
As rough as LSU’s offense was all year, the defense willed its way to seven victories and a fifth-straight bowl appearance. The Tigers are 14th in the FBS in scoring defense and 25th in yards allowed. They held half their regular season opponents to 10 points or fewer, finishing 6-0 in such games. However, they wound up 1-5 when permitting over 10 points with the lone win transpiring in 23-22 fashion over Arkansas. Only Vanderbilt and Texas A&M exceeded 24 on this defense headlined by star coordinator Blake Baker.
The Tigers are down all three All-SEC selections plus several addition starters, so there are plenty of obstacles Baker must overcome Saturday night. Outside linebacker Davhon Keys owns the most tackles of active Tigers at 78, and he’ll operate as the chief run-stopper in this refurbished unit. LSU currently ranks seventh in the FBS in passes intercepted and several havoc players will be making an appearance at NRG Stadium.
True freshman cornerback DJ Pickett picked off three passes in a standout debut campaign, and each of the other three starting defensive backs for Saturday — PJ Woodland at corner and Tamarcus Cooley and Dashawn Spears at safety — also corralled multiple interceptions. LSU exhibits tremendous depth and talent in its passing defense, and this group will be essential to spearheading a fourth-straight bowl win.
Houston Cougars outlook
Houston is finally back in Bowl Season after a 2-year hiatus, and the Cougars are closing on a 10-win season in their own city. Willie Fritz guided the program back to its winning ways, and with a Texas Bowl triumph, Houston will likely finish ranked for the first time with the Big 12 patch on its jersey.
While the Cougars are playing in Houston, they’re perfect away from their home base of TDECU Stadium this year, earning designation as the only FBS team to finish 6-0 on the road. Foreign environments haven’t fazed the Cougars which are set to play in NRG Stadium for the first time since 2021.
One player responsible for Houston’s renaissance is quarterback Conner Weigman who will be making his third start vs. LSU. The Texas A&M transfer enjoyed a bounce-back season in his hometown, firing for 2,475 yards and 21 touchdowns to nine interceptions in an efficient manner. But the most impressive element of Weigman’s game that unlocked in Houston was his high-level mobility. The junior rushed for 644 yards in the regular season, exceeding 110 in three of his last five starts.
Also guiding the run game in Houston is tailback Dean Connors, who is suiting up in his final collegiate game Saturday night. The speedy running back leads the offense with 851 rushing yards, but that isn’t his only role. Connors doubles as one of the primary receiving threats — thriving on both checkdowns and downfield routes — and he’s ranked third on the team with 31 receptions.
Outside of Connors, Houston’s passing game primarily features two weapons, who both earned All-Big 12 honors. Amare Thomas is second in the Big 12 with 906 receiving yards, and he’s a downfield explosive playmaker with 10 touchdowns, with many of them worth throwing in a highlight reel. Houston’s top short-distance threat is the 6’7”, 250 pound Tanner Koziol whose 65 receptions lead all tight ends in the FBS. The likely NFL bound star exhibits a strong catch radius and can be a walking mismatch for many defenders, and he’s been a significant reason for Houston’s vast improvement in the red zone.
The Cougars’ offense is middle-of-the-road in a multitude of categories. They never posted 40 points all year but consistently landed in the 24 to 39 point window 10 times throughout the year, finishing 9-1 in such games. However, Houston shined more on the other end, lacking penalties and limiting explosive plays en route to the nation’s 41st-ranked scoring defense.
Only two teams accumulated 30 points vs. Houston all year, as the Cougars showed solid balance in stymying the run and limiting the pass. One unique trait of this group is its leading tackler stems from the defensive tackle position. The 6’1”, 295 pound Carlos Allen has 75 takedowns this year, highlighting Houston’s ability to produce a slew of first-level stops. Allen also has seven tackles for loss, assisting defensive ends Eddie Walls III and Brandon Mack in spearheading a capable pass rush.
Perhaps the most improved player from 2024 to 2025 on the Cougars is outside linebacker Jalen Garner, who matches Allen with 75 tackles on the year. The senior who has two forced fumbles must play a significant role in preventing LSU from finding rhythm with its struggling ground offense.
On the back end, Houston sends out a slew of fast and physical defensive backs, many of whom are playing their last college game. All-Big 12 cornerbacks Latrell McCutchin and Will James combined for 18 pass breakups, and James played a massive hand in the turnover battle with three interceptions, two forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. Kentrell Webb, Jordan Allen, and Wrook Brown are other faces that consistently provide impact, especially when Houston’s back is against the wall. The Cougars have denied teams of points on 23.7 percent of red zone trips, which stands at 21st in the FBS.
Prediction
The game involves LSU, and regardless of the caliber of opponent, LSU has made almost everyone play a similar, low-scoring defensive slugfest this year. But one must also account for the Tigers missing roughly half its starting defense including three All-SEC contributors and several other notable playmakers. LSU possesses enough depth to make life difficult for Houston’s offense, but the Cougars can still pick up some advantages with Conner Weigman’s mobility and the Amare Thomas-Tanner Koziol receiving duo.
On the other side of the ball, LSU’s offense never broke 25 on any FBS opponent this year and Houston’s well-balanced unit probably won’t be the first to break that streak. The Cougars are equipped to handle anything the Tigers throw at them, so as long as Houston doesn’t fall victim to a -2 or worse in the turnover battle, the Cougars have the tools needed to win. In the end, the hometown team celebrates.
Prediction: Houston 20, LSU 17
