Despite entering Week 5 as massive underdogs, the New England Patriots managed to beat the Bills in Buffalo to carve out a major advantage in the race for the AFC East. Now, 10 weeks later, they need to repeat
that feat in order to lock up the division and crown themselves champion for the first time since 2019.
For a victory in the rematch with Buffalo, however, the team of head coach Mike Vrabel will need to bring its A-game. The Bills, after all, are far from dead and stayed the course even after losing to New England earlier in the year: at 9-4, they still have a chance to win their sixth straight division title, and a victory on Sunday would help boost their chances to snatch the top spot away from the Patriots after all.
As always when going up against an opponent of that quality, a complete game is need in all three phases. That said, our eyes will be on a handful of players in particular: considering the circumstances and opponent, here are our pivotal Patriots for Sunday’s game.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson
The Bills run defense has improved slightly over the course of the season, but it is still ranked toward the bottom of the league in efficiency categories such as yards per carry (5.1) and EPA per run (0.045). For New England and its lead running back, this presents an opportunity.
Rhamondre Stevenson has had an up-and-down year so far; he missed time with a toe injury and fumbled three times over the first five weeks of the season, but also has contributed some big plays as a runner and receiver while additionally showing some good pass protection. Considering Buffalo’s defensive weaknesses, one would expect him to be in line for a solid game. Then again, despite scoring two touchdowns, Stevenson was a relative non-factor in the first meeting between those two teams.
WR Stefon Diggs
In his first ever trip back to Orchard Park, Diggs was the most impactful skill position player on the field. Catching 10 passes for 146 yards in Week 5, he willed the Patriots to victory over his former team. To repeat as victors in front of the Gillette Stadium crowd, a similar performance would go a long way.
A veteran of 11 NFL seasons, Diggs knows that no two games are alike. That does not mean there are no lessons to be taken away from his first meeting with the Bills in October either
“That was a long time ago,” he said this week. “A lot of things have happened throughout this season that we kind of learned from. Even that game — we learned a lot from that game and we were like, ‘Damn, if we had this back, we would have done this differently. We would have done that differently.’ But all is well ends well when you win the game. You learn a lot throughout the season that’s going to help you towards the end.
“And the landscape looks different. It’s going to be a little more colder. It’s going to be some winter weather, whatever it is. I think the biggest thing for us is packing what our coach called identity and who we are, what we like to do and that’s finishing plays and that’s being aggressive and that’s being smart.”
LG Jared Wilson
The Patriots suffered some major losses during their win in Cincinnati in Week 12, including the entire left side of their offensive line. While tackle Will Campbell will be out another week on injured reserve due to the sprained MCL he sustained that day, guard Jared Wilson seems set to make a comeback against Buffalo.
Under normal circumstances, Wilson would slot into the left guard spot between Campbell’s replacement Vederian Lowe and center Garrett Bradbury. However, there is no telling just how quickly the third-round rookie will be up to speed again despite not carrying an injury designation into the matchup; even if he is cleared for starting action, there might be some rust to be shaken off after virtually not playing for three straight weekends both physically and in regards to his chemistry with Lowe in particular.
It helps that Buffalo will be without stalwart defensive tackle Ed Oliver. The remaining front seven — including starting tackles DaQuan Jones and Deone Walker as well as edges Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau — will still present a challenge for the young lineman and the rest of the starting five.
DT Khyiris Tonga
Another player who recently missed some time, Tonga is set to make his own comeback after suffering an injury against Cincinnati. The Patriots will need him to be at his best, too, given Buffalo’s willingness to run the football as well as the scramble abilities provided by quarterback Josh Allen.
“He can do everything,” Tonga said about Allen this week. “Run the ball, throw the ball, throw 60 yards across his body — he can do it all. And we know that, so it’s going to be a fun challenge.”
With fellow defensive tackle Milton Williams on IR, Tonga projects as a starter alongside Christian Barmore (who himself was a limited participant in two of three practices this week). How much action he will actually see, however, has yet to be determined: Cory Durden, Eric Gregory and Joshua Farmer provide rotational depth behind the two top options, and likely will be moved in and out of the lineup as well. That said, at his peak, Tonga and Barmore is the best pairing New England has available against Allen and company.
LB Robert Spillane
The Bills offense presents an array of problems, and as a result no position might be under bigger pressure than linebacker. Tops among the LBs on the Patriots, of course, is team captain Robert Spillane.
Typically a 100-percenter on the defensive side of the ball — even though it remains to be seen whether his current foot injury will impact his availability — Spillane will be faced with a multitude of tasks. There is coming downhill to help stop James Cook and Buffalo’s potent run game; there is spying Josh Allen as a run threat; there is covering tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox; and there is communicating with the rest of the unit against a team using motion on 55.2% of snaps and play action on 16.5%.
K Andy Borregales
Whether or not you believe the Patriots’ underdog status is justified, Sunday’s game projects as a highly-contested affair that could be decided by a handful of points. If so, kicker Andy Borregales will again be in the spotlight.
The sixth-round draft pick has had a solid rookie campaign so far, hitting on 23 of 26 field goals and 36 of 38 extra points. The Patriots will need him to be accurate again on Sunday, especially after he went off he mark in both of his last two appearances at Gillette Stadium: against the Jets and Giants in Weeks 11 and 13, respectively, he missed one field goal each. Like this upcoming game, those two were played in cold conditions as well.
