Currently, four WNBA teams can be considered contenders for the final spot in the 2026 playoffs: the Los Angeles Sparks (8-8), Washington Mystics (8-8), Toronto Tempo (8-9) and Portland Fire (8-10).
While the NBA has recently adopted a flattened lottery system to prevent teams from tanking, the WNBA’s two-year cumulative record system still benefits teams that are willing to pull the plug on contention midseason, giving teams an opportunity to, as much as possible, control their own draft destiny.
Led by USC’s JuJu Watkins (if she chooses to enter), Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo and Texas’ Madison Booker, the 2027 draft projects to be one of the deepest classes in WNBA history. Unlike previous years, teams won’t just be fighting for the No. 1 pick. Any pick in the lottery is valuable, especially the top three.
For the four teams hovering on the fringe of the playoff picture, tanking can be an attractive option with a reasonably achievable outcome.
There are four more teams with significantly more negative records, but only one is in strong position to snag a top-three pick. The Seattle Storm and Phoenix Mercury are hurt by their 20+ win 2025 records, which will even out their two-year standings. The Chicago Sky do not own their own pick, having traded swap rights to the Mystics. That leaves the Connecticut Sun, or the soon-to-be Houston Comets, as the only team currently in the bottom four of the standings highly likely to earn a top selection.
That means that two of the four “no-mans land” teams—Los Angeles, Washington, Toronto and Portland—could overtake the bottom of the barrel and end up in the lottery. So, which middle-of-the-pack teams should embrace the tank?
Here’s a look at what we think the teams will do, along with what we think they should do. In the comments, let us know if you agree.
Los Angeles Sparks: Will go for the playoffs, should go for the tank
Through questionable roster construction, the Sparks have stuck themselves between a rock and a hard place.
Unlike the other three teams on this list, Los Angeles is a mostly-veteran core of players: Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby, Kelsey Plum, and Ariel Atkins all have eight or more years of WNBA service. Those four veterans make up 62 of the Sparks 88 points per game, or 70.4 percent of their scoring production. However, LA is only 8-8, and has just two wins( one against the Aces, one against the Liberty) against opponents in the playoff picture.
Their roster is, quite starkly, not good enough for serious playoff contention.
Unfortunately for Sparks fans, they don’t get to experience the upsides of a poor season. They went 21-23 last season, meaning that their two-year record likely won’t be bad enough to land them a lottery pick even if they see a significant decline in wins over the latter half of the season.
In addition, they don’t have much of a young core to build on at the moment. Cam Brink has fluctuated both in role and in production, Rae Burrell is a couple years too old to feel like a future cornerstone if they were to embrace another rebuild and Kate Martin is, at best, a fringe rotation piece after coming from the Golden State Valkyries.
Worst of all, Los Angeles’ affinity for veteran talent has neutralized their actual ability to intentionally tank. It’s very hard to believe that such an experienced locker room would be okay settling for mediocrity. Plum, now sidelined for four week with a leg injury, and the rest of the Sparks will continue to chase a championship, even if it zeroes their odds of landing LA-native JuJu Watkins in next year’s draft.
Washington Mystics: Will go for the playoffs, should go for the playoffs
Washington has had their own issues with balancing minutes for recent draft picks (or perhaps just issues with positional need and draft philosophy), but there is no question that they have the right to try to contend for a playoff berth this season.
The biggest justification for Washington choosing to contend is that they own the rights to swap picks with Chicago in the upcoming draft—hands down one of the most valuable assets in the league.
Chicago is 5-12, and only finished with 10 wins last season. They’re comfortably positioned within next year’s lottery, and it’s unlikely that that will change throughout the rest of the season. The Mystics will keep whichever is the lower pick between their own pick and Chicago’s, and even if they were to tank, their own pick will almost definitely be the worse of the two.
Because Washington will just swap picks with Chicago, there is no reason for them to try to tank to essentially give the Sky a better pick. Chicago’s pick is in prime position for the JuJu Watkins lottery, and if this season’s trend continues, only Connecticut will have better odds to land the first pick. The Mystics have a real shot at getting Watkins, Hidalgo or Booker, and won’t need to tank to increase their odds.
Although they’ve recently beaten both the Liberty and the Lynx, the Mystics still aren’t quite good enough to suggest that they could beat a top seed in a first round series. Nevertheless, a playoff experience would do wonders for the ongoing development of Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen and the rest of their young core. Playing under postseason pressure is a feeling that is better experienced sooner rather than later, and will instill a confidence in the organization that they belong in the postseason.
If Washington is able to give Citron her first postseason berth, and then add a borderline generational talent through Chicago’s first-round pick, they will easily have one of the best long term outlooks in the league.
Toronto Tempo: Might go for the tank, should go for the tank
Toronto is the hardest of the four teams to read because they have a little bit of everything.
As with Portland, their existence as an expansion team means that they won’t be held back by a two-year record when it comes to tanking for a better draft pick. They are in complete control of their draft destiny. Like Los Angeles, they have a handful of veterans who likely want to win, including head coach Sandy Brondello who won a WNBA championship just two seasons ago. Like the Mystics, they probably aren’t good enough to compete in a playoff series.
While Toronto’s best route to long-term contention would probably involve tanking for a JuJu Watkins-Hannah Hidalgo type talent, the production of Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes have brought them to some kind of semi-contention. Injuries to Sykes and 2026 first-round pick Kiki Rice may hurt their performance in the upcoming stretch of games, but both players will eventually return and the Tempo will recharge to a respectable strength.
Toronto’s path forwards will likely be determined by Brondello herself, in accordance with the outlook of general manager Monica Wright Rogers. If Brondello is willing to sacrifice winning, which she has been so accustomed to in her WNBA career, and Sykes and Mabrey are able to see the value in sitting games or sacrificing production, then the Tempo are still in a position to tank.
However, there are too many variables at play to confidently suggest that they will adopt that strategy.
Portland Fire: Will go for the tank, should go for the tank
Portland, although firing well above expectations behind WNBA Coach of the Month Alex Sarama, have made it abundantly clear that they are trying to set a culture in their inaugural season, not make the playoffs.
Portland has already made a handful of early-season moves where they let go of talented players for seemingly no reason. While many criticized their front office, or fairly questioned their affinity for European talent behind a European general manager and head coach, it seems much more likely that they were releasing players who they felt didn’t have a long term future in Portland, and may have helped them ultimately win games without building towards a more distant goal.
Sarama himself has reassured reporters that Portland will be looking to even out minutes towards the back half of the season, and will highly prioritize development over contention. Their surprising start has already served as an acute proof of concept for their modern constraints-led approach (CLA) development system and analytical thinking.
The next step for that system is to fill it with talent.
If the Fire could land one of the 2027 draft’s top talents, it would dramatically speed up their timeline to consistency and potential playoff dominance. There’s no reason for Portland to continue to squeeze out wins to prove a point about their identity, and there’s no reason to believe that they don’t know that. Expect Portland’s record to continue to decline, especially post-All Star break.
