Well, that was a rough day. I spent Saturday night at a Rays game. While a good time, they lost to Cleveland for the second straight time after putting together a seven-game winning streak and getting into the periphery of the American League Wild Card race. It was a similar story for them. Not enough offense. For the Cubs, this is all too many times.
Three hits. Three hits just isn’t enough. It’s way easier to sweat the lineup decisions when no one hits. Kyle Tucker’s injury lingers. The Cubs lineup flounders
without him. It seems unlikely that Willi Castro stays with the Cubs for a 10th man role. Regardless of whether he likes playing for the Cubs or not, it seems likely he’ll find someone who wants him as a starter. Given his positional flexibility, he would be a natural fit for nearly every team. A 28-year-old who was an All-Star, literally last year, and was once a top-5 Rookie of the Year candidate seems likely to land a full time job with someone. It’s hard to imagine he won’t seek a one-year deal, maybe with an option, with a chance to rebuild his value.
With that said, the Cubs have sat first Owen Caissie and now Kevin Alcántara for him. I don’t like to second guess a lot, but Castro has really struggled. There’s a fair chance that Caissie and Alcantara would too. But, maybe not. Moises Ballesteros. Pick one. It doesn’t feel like Castro is the solution to any of the Cub problems.
Matthew Boyd wasn’t out of this world, but two runs over seven innings and only 87 pitches feels excellent at the end of the day. If you got that same start 162 times, you’d probably win well over 100 games. The Cubs used two of their core relievers for the ninth and finished a two-run game. That’s supposed to win. But it didn’t. Just not the kind of game you want to lose. You got a great start and couldn’t find any offense against a guy who had struggled with a 5.26 ERA as a starter and who was an 18th round pick. This was not some guy who is expected to be a future star.
Now the Cubs need to bounce back and win one to avoid a terrible series loss.
Pitch Counts:
- Nationals: 154, 34 BF
- Cubs: 111, 32 BF
Here you see the real craziness. The Nationals throw 17.1 pitches per inning. Perilously close to disaster territory. Brad Lord threw 90 pitches in less than six innings. He walked four and struck out seven. That ran a pitch count. Put he never broke. Seven batters over the minimum. The Cubs were 0-6 with runners in scoring position and stranded six. They also hit into three double plays.
The Cubs throw just 12.3 pitches per inning and face five over the minimum. The Cubs turned a double play and Boyd picked off two runners. The wild thing is that Boyd allowed runs in two different innings. One could certainly scatter seven baserunners or allow just one run.
Only one pitcher on either team threw over 20 pitches. That was Clayton Beeter at 22. Both teams should have pretty deep bullpens for Sunday’s game. Both teams used some of their top relievers. Brad Keller hasn’t worked in the series. At this point, he’s the Cubs’ most effective reliever.
Three Stars:
- Drew Pomeranz with a scoreless eighth and two strikeouts.
- Daniel Palencia with a scoreless ninth and two strikeouts.
- Matthew Boyd threw seven innings of two-run ball.
An honorable mention to Pete Crow-Armstrong with a double, a walk and a run scored. But I just can’t hat tip a woefully ineffective offense.
Game 142, September 6: Nationals 2, Cubs 1 (81-61)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Matthew Boyd (.116). 7 IP, 26 BF, 7 H, 0 BB, 2 ER, 3 K, HBP (L 12-8)
- Hero: Michael Busch (.091). 0-1, 2 BB
- Sidekick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.090). 1-2, 2B, BB, R
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Willi Castro (-.255). 0-3, BB, DP
- Goat: Ian Happ (-.242). 0-4, DP
- Kid: Matt Shaw (-.134). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: With first and second and no outs in the seventh, the Cubs were down 2-1 when Clayton Beeter got Willi Castro to ground into a double play. (.160)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner’s one-out single in the ninth inning. (.096)
The six largest drops (pitcher recording an out in a leverage situation) were all recorded by the Nationals.
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Dansby Swanson 47-42 over Ian Happ (129 total votes).
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +22
- Jameson Taillon +16
- Michael Busch +14.67
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Carson Kelly -18
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -24.33
- Seiya Suzuki -30
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) win (Cubs up 4). Mets (WC 3) lose (Cubs up 5). Giants lose (Cubs up 9; Giants need to go 18-2 to reach 90 wins.). The Cubs’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 12 with 20 games to go. For what it’s worth, the Brewers won again (Cubs down 6.5). We’ll count down the magic number against the Giants until the Cubs clinch a playoff spot. Then we’ll turn our attention (presumably) to the Mets and Brewers.
Up Next: The third and final game of the series and sixth and final game of the season series. The Cubs need a win to win both. Pomeranz is going to be an opener for the Cubs on Sunday. The Cubs have had some pretty good luck with openers. Pomeranz has not. He’s done it three times and has a 7.71 ERA. He’s allowed two hits, two walks and two runs in just 2.1 innings. This spot is Colin Rea’s. Rea is 10-6 with a 4.30 ERA (136 IP) and 2-2 with a 5.03 ERA over his last seven starts.
26-year-old, left-handed rookie Andrew Alvarez (1-0, 0.00, 5 IP) gets the start for Washington. The Nats’ 12th round pick in 2021 (353 overall) will be making his second major league start. The last one was against the Marlins in Washington. He allowed one hit and two walks while striking out four. He was 3-7 with a 4.10 in 25 starts (123 innings) for the Nationals’ Triple-A team.
Beat a no name. Win the series. Don’t let this get away.
