The NBA draft is under a week away, which means we’re under two weeks away from one of the league’s most active transactional periods: the start of free agency on June 30th. While NBA insider Chris Haynes recently cast some doubt on this, Bucks co-owner Jimmy Haslam previously stated the Bucks would like to have Giannis’ future resolved by the draft. The Greek Freak can’t technically sign an extension until October, but if the Bucks tell him they’ll offer it once he’s eligible, then they can operate
accordingly. If he signals acceptance, commit to having him in Milwaukee moving forward, and if he doesn’t, trade him for the best package. Or they could just not offer the extension at all and trade him.
The business implications of that move aside, the main basketball argument that makes the most sense for moving on is Giannis’ increasingly worrisome injury history. However, that may drive down offers from rivals, and is it worth trading your franchise legend for 75 cents on the dollar coming off an injury-plagued season? Alternatively, with a new coach in place and the assets to upgrade around Giannis, taking some pressure off him could negate his injury woes somewhat while also returning the Bucks to the playoffs.
That’s what we’re looking at today: how could GM Jon Horst revamp the roster while keeping Giannis, who we’ll assume would extend if Horst made another Jrue Holiday/Damian Lillard-type splash? They appear ready to do something, with or without the big fella: Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints said yesterday that he expects the Bucks to be “one of the most aggressive teams” on the trade market, though in the context of a Giannis trade. He also stated that Ryan Rollins is the only player on the roster off the table.
It’s possible that they’re looking at win-now moves as well as rebuilding ones. Everyone and their uncle has written about the latter, but few are talking about the former. The reality is that the Bucks have every capability of being a buyer this offseason with what they have on hand.
The Bucks’ assets
Once again, Horst has a bevy of first-round picks available to trade, despite every pick from 2027–31 being property of other teams after trades for the aforementioned guards. He can currently only offer his 2031 and 2032 first-round picks, but after the Bucks make their first-round pick at 10 overall next week, he can trade that player plus his first- and second-rounders in 2033. So, once any trade can be made official involving any of their 2026 or 2033 picks, Milwaukee’s best package of draft assets is three first-round picks and a swap.
Many fans are loath to give up additional firsts to acquire another star-level talent that will convince Giannis to extend, as he did in 2020 and 2023. And while the Bucks have succeeded in finding young talent on two-way deals recently, since drafting Donte DiVincenzo at 17 in 2018 (definitely a hit), they’ve had just two first-rounders since at 23 and 24 overall, both misses. It’s harder to find talent in that range, so the prevailing sentiment seems to be to hold onto the 10th pick.
That spot doesn’t often bring in a difference maker, but in this loaded draft, it seems likely Milwaukee will end up with someone quite promising. We spent a few weeks conducting a community mock draft with the Bucks selecting Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg with their 10th overall pick… if that’s where they’ll draft. One rumor says Milwaukee is operating as if they’ll have three firsts next week. For now, let’s go with what they can offer on draft night: a maximum of three first-round picks—including whoever is selected at 10 on behalf of a trade partner—and one first-round pick swap.
Recall that Lillard was obtained for one first and two swaps in 2023, plus Holiday. Holiday cost Milwaukee three firsts and two swaps in 2020, plus Eric Bledsoe and George Hill. Each of those players was necessary to make the deals legal. Though Milwaukee has similar draft capital available now as they did six years ago, those players had plenty of value when traded: Holiday and Bledsoe were both coming off All-Defense selections, while Hill led the NBA in three-point percentage.
The Bucks’ main salary-matching pieces—Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis—don’t hold that same value, at least not on the floor. But their contracts could both expire next summer: Portis can opt out in a year and hit the open market the same time as Kuzma. That has a different sort of value; one that might help the Bucks acquire draft picks, as I’ll explain tomorrow.
But again, these are the questions: do the Bucks touch their draft stockpile again for another big-time roster upgrade, especially if they decide to keep Giannis? If they open the pick cupboard, how much are they comfortable giving up? Will it be enough to return to the postseason picture next year?
First, let’s level set. You might recall that Houston sent out the very same no. 10 pick in last year’s draft in the Kevin Durant trade. They also traded away Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, David Roddy, and five second-round picks. Durant was about to turn 37 and relatively healthy, so if you’re interested in Kawhi Leonard right now, I’d imagine the package would be similarly steep. Not to mention the Bucks would need to add AJ Green or Myles Turner alongside Kuzma and Portis to make the deal legal. Anyway, onto some better names…
Trey Murphy III
Here’s a longtime favorite of Bucks fans on trade machines. Reportedly, the Pelicans—who are without a first this year—are trying to acquire a lottery pick. And they have someone specific in mind who’s in the top-10 neighborhood. That should pique Milwaukee’s interest, because there’s a very real chance that whoever is selected 10th never becomes as good a player as Murphy, or the other players we’ll discuss.
New Orleans controls all of their future firsts, so they probably would prefer to trade future picks—and it may take a few—to get into this year’s lottery rather than trading from the roster. That means Horst might need to sweeten the pot. Kuzma’s expiring salary is enough to satiate trade rules, but is no. 10 enough for a sweet-shooting 26-year-old that averages 21 a game? If not, maybe swap rights on one of Milwaukee’s 2031–33 firsts does the trick.
Or perhaps New Orleans would like two picks in this year’s first round. I’ve written a bit about how Oklahoma City (who own no. 12 and 17) and Charlotte (no. 14 and 18) are who to call if Milwaukee wants to move down for multiple picks, and I’ve read OKC is interested in moving up. Sending no. 10 to the Thunder while the Bucks preserve their picks in 2031–33 and route two 2026 picks to the Pelicans might get a Murphy deal over the line. And get Giannis to sign on the dotted line in October.
Michael Porter Jr.
MPJ broke out last year in Brooklyn, and maybe his presence could also convince Giannis to extend. He was connected with several teams—never with the Bucks—around the deadline before the Nets decided to keep him. Now he’s on a $40.8m expiring contract, and could be eligible to extend with a team that acquires him after six months. Again, Portis plus Kuzma works, and saves Brooklyn $5.8m next year (not that they need it). But MPJ will likely have many suitors this offseason, and would the Nets, who have long had eyes for Giannis, want to do anything that keeps him a Buck? To convince them, I think no. 10 might be necessary, and hopefully not much more. They’d then have two top-10 picks on their roster next season.
Brandon Ingram, Lauri Markkanen, Franz Wagner
Packaging Kuzma and Portis would work as salary matching for Ingram, and if one of Trent/Harris/Prince opts in and is included, Markkanen. I imagine the latter would definitely require giving up a future first, though I don’t think either guy is worth no. 10. Plus, the on-court fit with Giannis isn’t as good. The only other player I’d group among the win-now acquisitions in this article is Wagner, but I don’t think Orlando is ready to call off their Wagner/Paolo Banchero frontcourt experiment yet, and Wagner played just 34 games last season.
Tomorrow, we’ll take a look at trades that won’t require the Bucks giving up picks, and would make at least some sense regardless of whether Giannis remains. But let’s close with a poll today to get your opinion on once again trading first-rounders. You can select multiple options, but obviously, don’t select any of the draft picks if you vote “none of the above.”
